Holy Cross Crusaders vs Rhode Island Rams prediction: Archie Miller's remade Rhode Island opens as a heavy favorite over Holy Cross

A new roster in a contract year

Archie Miller's fifth season at Rhode Island is also the last year of his contract, and he starts it with a mostly new team. The Rams return just 31.4% of last season's minutes. That makes last year's 16-16 team a weak guide to what takes the floor at the Ryan Center on Tuesday night.

The scoring now rests on newcomers. Dylan Williamson averaged 14.6 points as a full-time starter at Towson, and forward Matas Deniusas scored 12.5 per game at UT Martin. Among the returners, Jahmere Tripp is the most efficient. He shot 41.5% from three off the bench last season. Jonah Hinton brings starter's minutes and experience back.

The Rams also have to replace their best player. Tyler Cochran led them at 15.4 points per game and is gone, along with starting forward Keeyan Itejere. Two injury notes are worth checking before tip. Forward Mouhamed Sow had a lower-body injury as of Oct. 27. Guard Jaen Chatman was still practicing through finger and heel injuries as of Oct. 29. Neither player's status has been updated since. UC Santa Barbara transfer Jason Fontenet II was described as fully recovered from his own injury back in May.

The steals may have left too

Last season Rhode Island's defense won games by forcing turnovers. The Rams ranked 14th nationally in forced turnover rate, the share of opponent possessions that end in a giveaway. Cochran was the engine of that pressure, averaging 2.7 steals a game, and the Rams will have to find that pressure somewhere else.

Holy Cross is not a team that gives the ball away easily. The Crusaders ranked 85th in turnover rate last season. Rhode Island's own ball security was a problem: it ranked 327th in turnover rate. Holy Cross did little to punish teams for that. If the Rams' new guards are loose with the ball, a slow-paced underdog can stay within a big spread.

Holy Cross's soft middle

The clearest mismatch is inside. Holy Cross let opponents shoot 56.5% on two-pointers last season, which ranked 346th in the country. It also ranked 358th in block rate, so there was almost no rim protection to deter drives. Rhode Island, with size at 76.4 inches of minutes-weighted height, should be able to get to the basket.

The Crusaders did one thing well: they finished possessions on the defensive glass, ranking 45th in defensive rebound rate. On offense they almost never got second chances, ranking 357th in offensive rebound rate. Holy Cross will likely get one shot per trip and has to make it.

This preseason gave little reason to think much has changed. Holy Cross lost its final exhibition 64-48 to Central Connecticut on Oct. 27, and freshman guard Tristen Wilson led the team with 11 points. The Crusaders drew 28 points in the Patriot League preseason poll, far behind favorite American.

Fouls, tempo and the number

Holy Cross's best route to covering is the free-throw line. Last season Rhode Island fouled a lot, ranking 340th in opponent free throw rate (free throws allowed per field goal attempt). Holy Cross made 75.6% of its free throws last season, which ranked 59th nationally. Free throws also stop the clock, and they would help a slow underdog shorten the game.

The gap between the programs is wide. In last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), Holy Cross ranked 329th in net efficiency and Rhode Island ranked 136th. When the teams last played, in November 2024 in Kingston, the Rams won 91-77.

The total of 149.5 is a different question. Both teams were slow last season, ranking 274th and 279th in pace. A 149.5 total asks for a faster game than either team usually plays, unless the Rams' new guards push the tempo. The line has not moved since our feed first recorded it, at -17.5 and 149.5.