Western New Mexico vs New Mexico State prediction: New Mexico State opens the Hooten defense against Division II Western New Mexico
The Aggies' season starts with an exhibition-style tuneup at home, four days before a trip to Gonzaga, and the open question is whether a stingy defense can stop fouling.
- New Mexico State should be a heavy home favorite against a Division II opponent before its trip to Gonzaga.
- Watch whether the Aggies keep Western New Mexico off the free-throw line, a weakness last season when their opponents' free throw rate ranked 347th of 365.
- No spread or total has posted yet; last season's pace, 291st of 365, points to a low possession count.
A tuneup with a deadline
Jason Hooten enters his fourth season in Las Cruces, and the schedule gives his team little time to settle. The Tuesday opener against Western New Mexico, a Division II program in the Lone Star Conference, tips at 6:30 p.m. MT on ESPN+. A road trip to Gonzaga follows on Nov. 7 and a visit to UTEP on Nov. 12.
The Mustangs arrive off what was described as the most successful season in program history. Their coaching situation is unclear, with conflicting listings, and there's no Division I data to measure them against.
Defense first, and the fouls
Last season's Aggies went 16-16 and won with defense. Opponents posted an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 47.6%, 41st nationally, and made just 31.1% of their threes, 40th.
The flaw was the whistle. New Mexico State allowed an opponent free throw rate of 43.6%, which ranked 347th of 365. Against an overmatched opponent, cleaning that up is the most useful thing the Aggies can show in a tuneup.
Can the offense find shots
Scoring was harder. Last season's effective field goal percentage of 49.0% ranked 309th, and the team shot 32.6% from three. The Aggies also played slowly, at 65.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 291st in the country. Expect a deliberate game rather than a track meet.
The returning core starts with DJ Dudley, a senior guard named to the preseason All-CUSA team, and Adrame Diongue, a 7-0 senior center. Grad guard KK Robinson and a trio of freshman guards round out a roster still sorting its rotation. How much of last season's production returns isn't clear, so treat last season's team numbers as a loose guide.
Key players
- DJ Dudley (New Mexico State): Named to the preseason All-CUSA team on Oct. 8, he enters as the Aggies' headline returner.
- Adrame Diongue (New Mexico State): At 7-0, he gives New Mexico State a size edge that a Division II frontcourt will struggle to match.
Numbers that matter
| Opponent eFG% (last season) | 47.6% | Ranked 41st nationally and was the foundation of last season's team. |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent free throw rate (last season) | 43.6% | Ranked 347th of 365, the clearest habit to fix in a tuneup. |
| Pace (last season) | 65.5 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 291st nationally, pointing to a slow game. |
| Effective FG% (last season) | 49.0% | Ranked 309th, the main question for this season's offense. |
Western New Mexico vs New Mexico State: quick answers
When is Western New Mexico vs New Mexico State?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET.