South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats prediction: Kansas State's post-Tang reset opens against Joe Sayler's Jackrabbits
A program that settled with its fired coach this month starts over at Bramlage against a Summit contender whose rebounding was elite last season.
| Spread | Kansas State -10 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 158.5 |
- Expect K-State to push tempo at home while South Dakota State tries to slow it, end possessions on the glass and lean on Sayler.
- K-State's offensive glass test: the Wildcats' weak rebounding last season against a Jackrabbits defense that ranked 7th in defensive rebound rate.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's adjusted net ratings had K-State 99th and South Dakota State 206th.
A program starting over
The most interesting thing about this opener happens off the floor. Kansas State fired Jerome Tang "for cause" on Feb. 15, days after a home loss to Cincinnati, and this month the school agreed to pay him $12 million to end the dispute. Matthew Driscoll finished last season as interim coach. We found no report of a permanent hire, so who is running the bench on Nov. 3 remains an open question for readers to confirm.
That matters for how much weight to put on last season's numbers. The Wildcats went 12-20 in 2025-26, but a coaching change usually brings roster churn, and we have no returning-minutes data for either team. Treat everything below as a baseline, not a forecast.
The schedule hid a better team
Last season's raw and adjusted numbers tell two different stories. Unadjusted, K-State was outscored by 3.7 points per 100 possessions, 277th nationally. Once you adjust for a Big 12 schedule, its net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) rose to 7.2, 99th of 365.
South Dakota State went the other way. The Jackrabbits finished 14-18 with a positive raw margin (+4.0 per 100 possessions), but their adjusted net rating from last season was -2.7, 206th. Last season's adjusted ratings favor the home team, and the last meeting went K-State's way: a 91-68 win in Manhattan in November 2023.
Where the Jackrabbits can steal possessions
If South Dakota State has a structural edge, it is on the defensive glass. The Jackrabbits grabbed 75.6% of opponents' misses last season, 7th in the country. K-State was a poor offensive rebounding team, 250th in offensive rebound rate, and an even worse defensive one, ranking 331st.
That combination gives SDSU a route to extra shots without forcing turnovers, which it rarely did (313th in forced turnover rate). One-and-done K-State trips plus second chances at the other end is how a mid-major hangs around in a building like Bramlage.
Tempo and the three-point line
K-State wanted to run last season, playing at 72.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 10th fastest nationally. South Dakota State sat near the middle of the pack at 186th. K-State's minutes-weighted height was taller than SDSU's last season (77.3 inches to 76.1).
The Wildcats also shot well from deep, hitting 36.4% of their threes (43rd). That lines up with SDSU's biggest defensive habit: opponents took 47.2% of their shots from three against the Jackrabbits, 14th most in Division I. If that pattern holds, K-State gets plenty of open looks.
Sayler and a picked contender
South Dakota State arrives with more preseason buzz than its record suggests. Summit League voters picked the Jackrabbits third, with seven first-place votes, a season after they lost to St. Thomas in the conference tournament quarterfinals. Joe Sayler was named Preseason Player of the Year, and Kalen Garry and Jesse Van Kalsbeek made the preseason second team. Bryan Petersen was listed as SDSU's first-year coach in 2025-26, and we found no report of a change since.
That continuity is a contrast with a K-State program still turning the page.
South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats line movement and odds
| Book | Jackrabbits ML | Wildcats ML | Jackrabbits spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +500 | -700 | +11.5 (-115) | o159.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +425 | -670 | +10.5 (-103) | o158.5 (-106) |
| DraftKings | +490 | -675 | +11.5 (-118) | o159.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +500 | -800 | +11.5 (-120) | o159.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +500 | -700 | +11 (-105) | o158.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +480 | -690 | +10.5 (-102) | o158.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +11 (-110) | o159 (-110) |
Where the money is on South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Dakota St Jackrabbits: 30% of bets, 85% of the money; Kansas St Wildcats: 70% of bets, 16% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Kansas St Wildcats -11.5: 20% of bets, 20% of the money; South Dakota St Jackrabbits +11.5: 80% of bets, 80% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 158.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 158.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats stats (this season)
| Stat | South Dakota St Jackrabbits | Kansas St Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 108.4 (183rd of 365) | 114.1 (93rd of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 111.1 (217th of 365) | 106.8 (127th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -2.7 (206th of 365) | 7.2 (99th of 365) |
Key players
- Joe Sayler (South Dakota State): Sayler was voted Preseason Player of the Year and first-team All-Summit, making him the player K-State has to plan around.
- Kalen Garry (South Dakota State): Garry earned preseason second-team All-Summit honors, giving SDSU a second proven option behind Sayler.
- Jesse Van Kalsbeek (South Dakota State): Van Kalsbeek also made the preseason second team and is part of the trio driving the Jackrabbits' third-place projection.
Numbers that matter
| K-State adjusted net rank, last season | 99th | Opponent-adjusted, the Wildcats were far better than their 12-20 record suggested. |
|---|---|---|
| SDSU defensive rebound %, last season | 75.6% | Ranked 7th nationally and targets K-State's weak offensive glass. |
| K-State pace, last season | 72.8 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 10th fastest in Division I. |
| SDSU opponent 3-point attempt rate, last season | 47.2% | 14th most in the country, an opening for a K-State team that shot 36.4% from deep. |
South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats: quick answers
Who is favored in South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats?
Kansas State is favored by 10 points (Kansas State -10).
What is the over/under for South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats?
The total is 158.5 points.
When is South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats played?
Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS.
Has the line moved for South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats?
No: South Dakota St Jackrabbits has stayed at +11.5, and the total is still 158.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Kansas St Wildcats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: South Dakota St Jackrabbits: 30% of bets, 85% of the money; Kansas St Wildcats: 70% of bets, 16% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Kansas St Wildcats -11.5: 20% of bets, 20% of the money; South Dakota St Jackrabbits +11.5: 80% of bets, 80% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 158.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 158.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.