Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers prediction: Missouri's transfer-heavy rebuild opens against Cleveland State's near-bottom defense
Dennis Gates brings back less than a fifth of last season's minutes, and the Vikings' 3-point barrage is the one thing that can make a new group uncomfortable.
| Spread | Missouri -25.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 159 |
- Missouri should control the glass and the paint; Cleveland State's path is volume threes against a Tiger defense that let opponents shoot freely last season.
- Missouri's offensive rebounding, 57th nationally last season, against a Cleveland State defensive glass that ranked 352nd.
- No spread or total posted yet. Last season's adjusted net ratings, 57th for Missouri and 323rd for Cleveland State, frame the gap.
A new Missouri, mostly unknown
Missouri opens with a roster that barely resembles last season's 20-13 team. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 19.4% of last season's minutes, so last year's team numbers are a rough sketch at best. Gates rebuilt through the portal, and the newcomers carry the scoring résumés.
Jordan Crawford averaged 14.4 points at South Dakota. Cord Stansberry put up 14.1 at Western Carolina, though on a 29.6% clip from three. Jamier Jones shot 57% from the field at Providence, and Bryson Tiller, who blocked 1.3 shots a game at Kansas, stood out in the pro-day scrimmage. The most proven returner is Trent Pierce, who made 38.4% of his threes last season with an offensive rating of 126 (points produced per 100 possessions).
Availability has two open threads. Gates confirmed on Oct. 11 that Annor Boateng will miss the season: "Annor is out for the season," he said, and Boateng is expected to receive a medical hardship waiver. Center Trent Burns sat out pro day that same day, and his health hasn't been confirmed. Mark Mitchell, who averaged 18.3 points last season, and CJ Gunn are on the roster, but their fifth-year eligibility cases were unresolved in the latest reporting.
Cleveland State lives behind the arc
The Vikings' identity last season was simple: shoot threes and a lot of them. Their 3-point attempt rate of 49.6% ranked 18th nationally, and they made 37.5% of those tries, 24th in the country. That kind of shot diet is the classic way a mid-major keeps a high-major opponent honest.
It lines up against Missouri's softest spot from last season. Tiger opponents shot 36.8% from three, 349th of 365, and fired often enough to rank 70th in attempt rate. Inside the arc, Missouri was much sturdier, holding opponents to 48.7% on twos (68th). A new rotation could change that profile entirely, but if the perimeter defense hasn't improved, Cleveland State has a lever to pull.
The Vikings also played fast, at 70.6 possessions per 40 minutes (53rd), against a Missouri team that sat near the middle of the country in tempo.
Second chances and the foul line
The other end looks far worse for Cleveland State. Its defense finished last season 364th of 365 in adjusted efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and opponents made 57.7% of their twos against it.
The glass is where Missouri can press that edge. The Tigers grabbed 35.0% of their own misses last season, 57th nationally, while Cleveland State secured only 64.9% of opponent misses on its defensive boards, 352nd. Add Missouri's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 42.1%, 24th in the country, and the Tigers have plenty of ways to generate easy points.
The catch is what happens at the line. Missouri made just 69.1% of its free throws last season, 294th nationally, which can keep a comfortable margin from growing as fast as the rest of the stat sheet suggests. Both teams also turned the ball over at a similar rate last season, near 18 per 100 possessions.
Familiar faces on both benches
This opener carries more history than most guarantee games. Cleveland State coach Rob Summers, in his second season, was a Missouri assistant in 2024-25, and he worked on Gates' staff when Gates coached the Vikings in 2019-20.
It is also the second straight year Cleveland State visits Mizzou Arena. Missouri won last season's meeting 86-59 on Nov. 28. The Vikings went 11-22 last season and have reshuffled with transfers from Kent State, Wright State and North Texas, among others.
Missouri gets two tune-ups first, with upcoming exhibitions at Kansas State on Oct. 23 and against UNLV on Oct. 29. Those games will offer the first real look at the new rotation. The tip time isn't settled across listings; Missouri's own schedule shows 7 p.m. Central on SECN+.
Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers line movement and odds
| Book | Vikings ML | Tigers ML | Vikings spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +26.5 (-115) | o159.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +25.5 (-107) | o159.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +3000 | -10000 | +25.5 (-108) | o160.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +3500 | -50000 | +26.5 (-115) | o160.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +4000 | -12000 | +26 (-110) | o159.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +4000 | -30000 | +25.5 (-104) | o159.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +25.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cleveland St Vikings: 72% of bets, 0% of the money; Missouri Tigers: 28% of bets, 100% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Missouri Tigers -25.5: 92% of bets, 96% of the money; Cleveland St Vikings +25.5: 8% of bets, 4% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 158.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 158.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers stats (this season)
| Stat | Cleveland St Vikings | Missouri Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 108.8 (174th of 365) | 119.1 (52nd of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 124.9 (364th of 365) | 104.8 (93rd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -16.1 (323rd of 365) | 14.3 (57th of 365) |
Key players
- Jordan Crawford (Missouri): Started all 32 games last season at South Dakota and averaged 14.4 points while hitting 36.8% from three.
- Trent Pierce (Missouri): Posted an offensive rating of 126 last season on 38.4% 3-point shooting, the most efficient returning rotation piece.
- Jamier Jones (Missouri): Shot 57% from the field at Providence last season while scoring 11.9 points a game.
- Bryson Tiller (Missouri): Blocked 1.3 shots and grabbed 6.1 rebounds per game at Kansas last season, giving Missouri a rim presence.
Numbers that matter
| Missouri returning minutes | 19.4% | So little of last season's production is back that the Tigers' 2025-26 team stats are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland State adjusted defense rank (last season) | 364th | The Vikings finished next to last nationally in opponent-adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions. |
| Cleveland State 3-point attempt rate (last season) | 49.6% | Ranked 18th nationally, the volume that gives the Vikings their best path to staying close. |
| Missouri offensive rebound % (last season) | 35.0% | Ranked 57th, against a Cleveland State defensive glass that ranked 352nd. |
| Last meeting | 86-59 | Missouri won at home on Nov. 28, 2025, in the same building. |
Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers: quick answers
Who is favored in Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers?
Missouri is favored by 25.5 points (Missouri -25.5).
What is the over/under for Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers?
The total is 159 points.
When is Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers played?
Mizzou Arena, Columbia, MO.
Has the line moved for Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers?
Yes: Cleveland St Vikings opened +23.5 and is now +25.5, and the total is still 159.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Cleveland St Vikings vs Missouri Tigers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cleveland St Vikings: 72% of bets, 0% of the money; Missouri Tigers: 28% of bets, 100% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Missouri Tigers -25.5: 92% of bets, 96% of the money; Cleveland St Vikings +25.5: 8% of bets, 4% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 158.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 158.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.