New Orleans Privateers vs LSU Tigers prediction: Will Wade's rebuilt LSU debuts with Skyy Clark cleared and 23.5 points expected
LSU opens with no returning minutes and a rotation that barely practiced together, and the market still asks the Tigers to win by more than three touchdowns against a Privateers team that also turned over its roster.
| Spread | LSU -23.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 159.5 |
- LSU's guards should control the game, but a new rotation that barely practiced together could make the margin uneven, especially early.
- Donovan Dent's playmaking against a New Orleans team that turned it over more than almost anyone in Division I last season.
- LSU -23.5, total 159.5, neither moved since first posted. LSU returns 0.0% of last season's minutes, so its history is a weak guide.
A roster assembled in court
LSU's opener is also its first real look at what Will Wade has built. Wade is in his first season back in Baton Rouge after two years at McNeese. He inherits a program that went 15-17 last season, then rebuilt it so completely that the Tigers return 0.0% of last season's minutes. Every player who scores Tuesday will be doing it in purple and gold for the first time.
Getting the roster on the floor took court filings. On Oct. 30 the Kentucky Court of Appeals denied the NCAA's request for an emergency stay, so Skyy Clark remains eligible for the opener. Donovan Dent, Clark's former UCLA teammate, won eligibility for the season through a California lawsuit. Forward Saliou Niang and center Brice Dessert were cleared in October. RJ Luis Jr. is the exception. A Baton Rouge judge said he could play, but Wade has said he will not roster him, and he declined to revisit the subject at his preseason press conference.
LSU's opener preview describes a 14-player roster of transfers, international players and a couple of high school products. That depth arrived late. Only 10 players were available for the exhibition at McNeese, and seven played. Wade said the Tigers are still working to build a rotation that had little time together in the preseason, and he wants to settle into an eight-man group with a set starting five. No starting lineup has been announced.
The guards who carry LSU
The talent is in the backcourt. Dent averaged 7.5 assists per game at UCLA last season and handled a 24.7% usage rate, but he shot 25.4% from three. Clark is the shooter of the pair. He made 42.7% of his threes and posted a 58.6% effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 field goals.
Abdi Bashir Jr. adds more range. He hit 44.4% of 151 three-point attempts at Kansas State in 18 games. Up front, Mouhamed Dioubate posted a 123.9 offensive rating at Kentucky as an efficient finisher.
The preseason was not smooth. LSU went 2-1 in exhibitions, edging McNeese 63-60 and UCF 85-81, and the headline on the UCF win noted the Tigers were outmanned. Those close finishes are a fair reminder that a 23.5-point spread assumes the pieces fit together right away.
Where New Orleans can push back
New Orleans has turned over nearly as much of its roster. It returns 19.0% of last season's minutes and lost leading scorer Coleton Benson, who averaged 16.2 points. Stacy Hollowell, in his second season, has rebuilt around transfer guards.
Kahlil Singleton is the one to watch. He made 38.5% of 226 threes at Canisius last season and shot 89% at the line. Nick Jones averaged 14.9 points at Wagner with a 27% usage rate, though his 47.1% effective field goal percentage suggests he needed a lot of shots to get there.
Last season's Privateers had one clear strength and one costly flaw. Their free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranked 1st of 365. Their turnover rate of 20.6 per 100 possessions ranked 355th. With most of that rotation gone, neither number is guaranteed to carry over. Still, the trip to the line is the Privateers' most plausible way to keep the margin manageable, and ball security is the most obvious way it gets away from them.
The Privateers may also have a size edge. Their minutes-weighted average height is 77.0 inches against LSU's 75.4.
Reading a 23.5-point line
LSU is favored by 23.5, with the total at 159.5. Neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game, with five books quoting. The moneyline sits at -10000 on LSU.
Recent history supports a lopsided score. LSU won the past two meetings at the Maravich Center 86-70 and 93-58, the second last November. Last season's adjusted ratings, which measure points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents, put LSU 65th in net efficiency and New Orleans 208th. Those ratings describe rosters that no longer exist.
The total is where last season's style still says something. The Privateers played at the 98th-fastest pace in the country and leaned on free throws. If whistles pile up and LSU's new shooters connect, a high number is reachable. A disjointed first night from a rotation still finding itself points the other way.
New Orleans Privateers vs LSU Tigers line movement and odds
| Book | Privateers ML | Tigers ML | Privateers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +2000 | -6500 | +22.5 (-105) | o157.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +3000 | -20000 | +23.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +2500 | -7000 | +23.5 (-110) | o158 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +3000 | -10000 | +23.5 (-102) | o159.5 (-110) |
New Orleans Privateers vs LSU Tigers stats (this season)
| Stat | New Orleans Privateers | LSU Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 108.9 (173rd of 365) | 119.7 (49th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 112.3 (241st of 365) | 106.6 (124th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -3.4 (208th of 365) | 13.1 (65th of 365) |
Key players
- Donovan Dent (LSU): Averaged 7.5 assists and 13.3 points per game at UCLA last season, though he shot 25.4% from three.
- Skyy Clark (LSU): Made 42.7% of his threes at UCLA last season and remains eligible after the Oct. 30 appeals ruling.
- Abdi Bashir Jr. (LSU): Hit 44.4% of 151 three-point attempts in 18 games at Kansas State last season.
- Mouhamed Dioubate (LSU): Posted a 123.9 offensive rating and 55.9% effective field goal percentage at Kentucky last season.
- Kahlil Singleton (New Orleans): Shot 38.5% on 226 three-point attempts and 89% at the line at Canisius last season.
- Nick Jones (New Orleans): Scored 14.9 points per game at Wagner last season on a 27% usage rate.
- Kedrick Osby (New Orleans): Made 40% of his 55 three-point attempts in a reserve role last season.
Numbers that matter
| LSU returning minutes | 0.0% | Every LSU player is new to the program, so last season's team stats say little about this group. |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -23.5 | LSU's number has not moved since our feed first recorded the game. |
| New Orleans free throw rate, last season | 1st | No team in Division I got to the line more often relative to its field goal attempts last season. |
| New Orleans turnover rate, last season | 20.6 | Turnovers per 100 possessions, which ranked 355th of 365 last season. |
| Total | 159.5 | Unchanged since first posted, and a high number for an opener between two teams with almost no shared history. |
New Orleans Privateers vs LSU Tigers: quick answers
Who is favored in New Orleans Privateers vs LSU Tigers?
LSU is favored by 23.5 points (LSU -23.5).
What is the over/under for New Orleans Privateers vs LSU Tigers?
The total is 159.5 points.
When is New Orleans Privateers vs LSU Tigers?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is New Orleans Privateers vs LSU Tigers played?
Pete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, LA.
Has the line moved for New Orleans Privateers vs LSU Tigers?
Yes: New Orleans Privateers opened +20.5 and is now +23.5, and the total moved from 159.5 to 157.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).