Lipscomb Bisons vs Iowa Hawkeyes prediction: Iowa's slow-motion offense opens life after Stirtz against Lipscomb's sprint

Two clocks, one floor

Iowa's Elite Eight run last season rested on an offense that was elite and patient at once. The Hawkeyes finished with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 124.9 points per 100 possessions (adjusted for opponents), 15th in the country. They got there at a crawl, ranking dead last in Division I in pace at 60.8 possessions per 40 minutes.

Lipscomb plays at the other end of that spectrum. In Monday's opener at Southeast Missouri State, the Bisons ran 76 possessions per 40 minutes. That game sailed past a closing total of 156.5.

Tonight's total sits at 149.5, and the question behind it is simple: whose clock wins? Iowa's last-season tempo is the strongest guide on the floor, but it belonged to a team built around a different lead guard.

Rebuilding the Stirtz offense

Bennett Stirtz, who averaged 19.8 points last season, left for the NBA. Iowa brings back 56.4% of last season's minutes but only 45.4% of its points, so Ben McCollum's second team has to find new shot creation.

The point guard job is a committee. Kael Combs and Illinois State transfer Ty'Reek Coleman are expected to handle most of it, with Peyton McCollum, the coach's son, in the mix. Peyton broke bones in both feet, the left in January and the right after an April scrimmage, but was reported in mid-October to be playing at a high level. He scored 10 points in the Oct. 28 exhibition against Illinois Springfield.

That exhibition offered the clearest lineup hint: Cooper Koch, Combs, Isaia Howard, Tate Sage and Saint Mary's transfer Andrew McKeever started, while Cam Manyawu came off the bench after starting every game last season. McCollum said the rotation is not set in stone, and Iowa used 11 players in the first half. The spacing should hold up. Koch shot 40.2% from three last season, and Coleman hit 41.6% at Illinois State.

Lipscomb's new faces

Kevin Carroll's second Lipscomb team lost its top four scorers and returns just 42.6% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little. The Bisons do have three players on the Preseason All-ASUN Team, including returning guards Mateo Esmeraldo and Titas Sargiunas.

The opener was not encouraging. Lipscomb lost 86-79 as a 1.5-point favorite to a Southeast Missouri State team that finished 224th in adjusted net efficiency last season. Simpkins, the Oregon transfer, carried the scoring with 22 points. Forward Devyn Martin was the bright spot inside, posting a double-double in only 17 minutes.

The defense was the problem. SEMO shot 55.0% from three, and a Big Ten team with Iowa's shooters will test whether that was noise or a warning.

Where possessions get lost

Iowa's defense under McCollum lived on takeaways. Its forced turnover rate (opponent turnovers per 100 possessions) was 20.9% last season, 19th nationally. Lipscomb coughed it up on 19.7% of its possessions Monday, a mark that ranks 204th among teams that have played.

Inside, the gap looks wider. Iowa made 58.8% of its two-pointers last season, and Lipscomb blocked shots at a rate that ranks near the bottom of Division I in its opener. McKeever, who averaged 9.1 rebounds at Saint Mary's last season, gives the Hawkeyes a big body Lipscomb's guard-heavy rotation will struggle to move.

What the market says

Iowa is a 20.5-point favorite, and the line hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it this morning. Seven books are quoting the game. The preseason computers are cooler on Iowa than its Elite Eight finish suggests: KenPom has the Hawkeyes 43rd. Lipscomb is already 0-1 against the spread. The cover question likely hinges on how fast the Bisons can make Iowa play, and how quickly the new Hawkeyes rotation settles.