Hampton vs Navy prediction: Navy's rebuilt backcourt must survive Hampton's ball-hawking transfer class
Two programs that lost almost everything open their home-and-road slates trying to prove last week's blowouts were just growing pains, and the team that protects the ball likely wins.
- Expect a ragged, low-efficiency game between two remade rosters, decided by which offense wastes fewer possessions after brutal season openers.
- Navy's guards, led by Jinwoo Kim and Cam Cole, against a Hampton defense that forced turnovers on 23.1% of possessions at Georgia Tech.
- No line is posted yet. Both teams went under their opening totals, 148.25 for Hampton and 149.5 for Navy, so watch where this total lands.
Two rebuilds, two rough nights
Last season Navy was the best story in the Patriot League: a 26-8 record, the program's first regular-season conference title since 1997 and just its second NIT bid. Hampton went 13-19. Neither of those teams exists anymore, and both found out how far they have to go in their openers.
Navy lost 91-39 at George Washington on Nov. 2. The Midshipmen graduated four of their top seven players, including Patriot League Player of the Year Austin Benigni and Defensive Player of the Year Aidan Kehoe. Benigni averaged 18.0 points last season, and Kehoe added 15.2 points and 10.9 rebounds. Players on this roster account for 40.6% of last season's minutes, and second-year coach Jon Perry now leans on returning guards Kim, Cole and Jordan Pennick. Navy placed fifth in the Patriot League preseason poll.
Hampton's turnover is even deeper. Its current roster played just 15.4% of last season's minutes, with thirteen new players around four returners. The Pirates fell 75-55 at Georgia Tech on Nov. 3 after trailing 42-15 at halftime. That means last season's team numbers tell you almost nothing about either side, and the opener tells you only a little.
Ball security decides it
The clearest edge in the early data is Hampton's hands against Navy's handle. Navy turned it over on 27.1% of its possessions at George Washington, 335th in the country. Its assist rate ranked 349th, a sign of an offense that couldn't find teammates without the departed Benigni running it.
Hampton's defense was disruptive even while losing by 20. Its steal rate ranked 72nd, and Etienne Strothers, one of the few holdovers, had four steals in 22 minutes off the bench. Nehemiah Lawrence and Max Frazier added three apiece. If Navy's guards cough the ball up at anything like their opening rate, Hampton gets the transition chances its half-court offense can't create.
Hampton's transfers need the rim
Coach Ivan Thomas rebuilt through the portal, and the newcomers arrived with real track records. Seth Hubbard scored 16.6 points per game in nine games at Milwaukee. Jayme Mitchell Jr. averaged 14.0 at Jackson State. Frazier shot 65.8% from the field at Central Connecticut.
None of it showed up in Atlanta. Hubbard went 3 of 13, Frazier 2 of 9, and Aaron Davis III missed all five of his threes. Hampton's effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) sat at 31.1%, 354th nationally. The Pirates did get to the line, with a free throw rate that ranked 67th, but they made just 56.7% of their attempts there.
Navy's opener doesn't suggest it can stop much. George Washington posted a 67.9% effective field goal percentage against the Mids, 352nd in the country. The most efficient Hampton option was Lawrence, who scored 10 points on 2-of-3 shooting from deep.
Who controls the clock
Navy won last season by grinding. Its pace of 63.2 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 355th, and it allowed 64.3 points per game, sixth-fewest in Division I. That defense left with Kehoe, and Navy played faster at George Washington.
Hampton pushed in its opener, ranking 61st in pace. The Pirates' rebounding, though, gave possessions away: their defensive rebound percentage ranked 333rd. Navy's offensive rebounding ranked 305th in its opener, so neither team has shown it can win the glass yet.
Both teams went under their opening totals, Hampton's at 148.25 and Navy's at 149.5. Both get extra rest before this one, with Navy at 12 days and Hampton at 11.
What to watch
- Kim's shot. He made 40.6% of his threes last season but went 1 of 11 from the field at George Washington.
- Navy's turnovers against Hampton's steal-happy rotation, especially Strothers off the bench.
- Hampton's first half. The Pirates scored 15 before the break at Georgia Tech; a cleaner start would signal the transfers are settling in.
- The home floor. Navy opened on the road at George Washington, so this is its first home game of the season.
Key players
- Jinwoo Kim (Navy): Shot 40.6% from three last season but scored just 2 points in 33 minutes in the opener.
- Cam Cole (Navy): Carried a 29.6% usage rate at George Washington, up from a reserve role in which he posted a 55.7% effective field goal percentage last season.
- David Burnett (Navy): Led Navy with 11 points and 7 rebounds in the opener after averaging 6.2 minutes last season.
- Seth Hubbard (Hampton): Averaged 16.6 points at Milwaukee last season but went 3 of 13 at Georgia Tech.
- Max Frazier (Hampton): Shot 65.8% at Central Connecticut last season and added 7 rebounds and 3 steals in the opener.
- Etienne Strothers (Hampton): Had 10 points and 4 steals off the bench against Georgia Tech.
- Nehemiah Lawrence (Hampton): Hampton's most efficient scorer in the opener, with 10 points on 2-of-3 shooting from three.
Numbers that matter
| Navy turnover rate, opener | 27.1% | Ranked 335th nationally, the weakness Hampton's defense is built to exploit. |
|---|---|---|
| Hampton forced turnover rate, opener | 23.1% | Ranked 95th even in a 20-point loss, with Strothers, Frazier and Lawrence each recording multiple steals. |
| Hampton returning minutes | 15.4% | Thirteen new players make last season's 13-19 team a weak guide. |
| Navy returning minutes | 40.6% | Kim, Cole and Pennick return, but the conference player and defensive player of the year are gone. |
| Hampton effective FG%, opener | 31.1% | Ranked 354th, well below what Hubbard, Mitchell and Frazier produced at their previous schools. |
Hampton vs Navy: quick answers
When is Hampton vs Navy?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.