Gardner-Webb vs South Carolina prediction: Gardner-Webb's two-point drought heads into South Carolina's rebuilt house

A new team in Columbia

South Carolina is a different program from the one that went 13-19 last season. Players on this season's roster logged just 10.3% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little about what takes the floor Saturday. The media picked the Gamecocks last in the SEC, and leading scorer Meechie Johnson Jr. is gone.

Lamont Paris rebuilt with transfers. Kory Mincy averaged 14.3 points at George Mason last season, Camden Heide made 45.4% of his threes at Texas, and Jakub Necas started every game he played at Duquesne. The first test went well: an 81-55 win over Stetson, broken open by a 15-0 second-half run. Heide led with 13 points, Necas and reserve Davion Hannah added 11 each, and Hannah pulled down 9 rebounds off the bench.

Nothing falling inside for Gardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb went 4-29 last season and finished 363rd of 365 in net efficiency, the gap between points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Coach Jeremy Luther, in his third season, brought in 11 newcomers, and the Bulldogs return roughly a third of last season's minutes.

The opener at UConn was rough. Gardner-Webb lost 86-46 and made 21.4% of its two-point shots, last among 357 Division I teams. It also turned the ball over on 23.3% of its possessions. UConn, 10th in last season's adjusted net rankings, is a far tougher opponent than South Carolina, but the Bulldogs also lost their best shooter. Spence Sims, who made 43% of his threes last season, left for Winthrop.

That turnover problem runs into a Gamecocks offense that gave the ball away on just 8.8% of its possessions against Stetson, seventh nationally.

Second chances and a slow clock

South Carolina grabbed 51.7% of its own misses in the opener, 18th in the country. Gardner-Webb's defensive rebounding was a weakness last season, when it ranked 353rd, and the Bulldogs' new frontcourt of Buffalo transfer Mikhali Pocknett and Quinnipiac transfer Sam Nosakhare is untested at this level. Nosakhare had 8 rebounds at UConn but did not score.

The Gamecocks also played slowly against Stetson, at 57.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 355th of 357. Gardner-Webb played much faster at UConn. If South Carolina dictates tempo at home, there are fewer possessions for the Bulldogs to chip away at a deficit, and fewer for the Gamecocks to pile on.

Who suits up for Paris

Freshman guard Marcus Johnson, a projected starter, missed the opener after taking an elbow to the head and nose in practice. Paris called him day to day on Nov. 3 and said there was a path for him to play in the next game; no newer update has surfaced. Bieliauskas, who strained a lower leg in an exhibition, started in Johnson's spot against Stetson.

Wing Grant Polk is out about six weeks with a lower-leg injury, with a return targeted for early December. Forward Mathias Alessanco tore his ACL and will miss at least the start of the season. Guard Nasir Hines, a junior college transfer, is expected to miss the fall semester portion of the schedule because of eligibility issues. Shane Blakeney, questionable with an ankle in October, played in the opener and went 1 of 7 from three. Gardner-Webb has no reported injuries.

Both teams beat the number

Both teams covered in their openers, and both games stayed under. Gardner-Webb lost by 40 at UConn yet covered as a 40.75-point underdog, with the game going under 147.5. South Carolina covered as a 19-point favorite against Stetson, and that game went under 149.5.

The Gamecocks' rest and the Bulldogs' layoff are nearly identical: South Carolina has 11 days off before tip, Gardner-Webb 12. Saturday's 2:00 PM ET start at Colonial Life Arena is South Carolina's second straight home game.