Coppin State vs South Florida prediction: Coppin State's turnover problem runs into Chris Mack's ball-hawking South Florida
A Bulls team built almost entirely from transfers collected 13 steals in its debut, and Coppin State has given the ball away more often than almost anyone in the country.
- South Florida's guards turn Coppin State giveaways into early runs, and the Eagles' poor shooting leaves little chance to recover.
- Sonny Wilson and the Bulls' pressure face a Coppin backcourt that committed 24 turnovers at Virginia Tech.
- No line is posted yet. Coppin failed to cover as a 31.5-point underdog in its opener, and South Florida won last year's meeting 100-50.
Coppin's ball security problem
Coppin State gave the ball away 24 times at Virginia Tech in its opener. Its turnover rate, the share of possessions that end in a turnover, sits at 33.3%, 353rd nationally. That isn't a one-night blip. Last season the Eagles' rate ranked 361st of 365.
That is a bad habit to carry into Tampa. South Florida came up with 13 steals against Charleston Southern, and its steal rate ranks 53rd. The Bulls also took care of the ball at the other end: their own turnover rate of 10.1% ranks 17th. If the possession count tilts this far toward the home team, the final margin follows.
A new roster under Chris Mack
Chris Mack was named South Florida's 13th head coach on March 25, 2026, after Bryan Hodgson left for Providence, and he rebuilt the roster from the ground up. Players back from last season account for only 13.4% of last year's minutes. That makes the 2025-26 team, which went 25-9 and reached the NCAA Tournament, a weak guide to this one.
The newcomers looked comfortable in the debut. Zayden High, a transfer from North Carolina, scored 20 points. Sonny Wilson, who averaged 16.9 points at Toledo last season, added 19 points, six assists and four steals. Guard Josh Omojafo is back under the NCAA's new age-based eligibility rule. One planned piece is missing: transfer guard AJ Dancler will sit out the season after knee surgery.
Coppin State returns 51.9% of its minutes. That continuity is less comforting than it sounds: last season's team went 7-24 and finished 363rd of 365 in adjusted net efficiency, a measure of points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents.
Where Coppin can score, and can't
The Eagles barely shoot from the perimeter. Only 23.1% of their shots in the opener were threes, and they made 16.7% of those. Last season they shot 30.5% from deep, 336th nationally, so a sudden hot hand would be out of character.
What offense they had came from Brendan Johnson, who went 8 of 13 for 17 points at Virginia Tech. Coppin's one real strength sits at the other end: a block rate of 20.0%, 37th nationally. That could matter, because South Florida also avoided threes in its opener and lived inside the arc. The Bulls made 45.0% of the threes they did take, and Coppin's defense let Virginia Tech shoot 46.4% from deep.
Pace and the scoreboard
South Florida played fast in Mack's first game, at 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 49th nationally. More possessions give the Bulls more chances to force turnovers, and the first halves of both openers show how quickly that compounds. Coppin trailed Virginia Tech 27-45 at the break, and South Florida led 43-33.
Both teams come in rested, with nearly two weeks between games. Last season's meeting on this floor ended 100-50. No spread or total has been posted yet. In its opener, South Florida covered as a 21.5-point favorite and went over a 158.5 total. Coppin stayed under 150.5 at Virginia Tech.
Key players
- Sonny Wilson (South Florida): He had 19 points, six assists and four steals in his Bulls debut.
- Zayden High (South Florida): He scored 20 points in the opener and used 33.4% of the team's possessions while on the floor.
- Josh Omojafo (South Florida): The only notable returner averaged 11.3 points last season and scored 14 off the bench in the opener.
- Brendan Johnson (Coppin State): He carried the offense at Virginia Tech with 17 points on 8-of-13 shooting.
- Camaren Sparrow (Coppin State): He blocked two shots in the opener, part of a defense whose block rate ranks 37th.
- Hussain Williams (Coppin State): He shot 26.3% from three last season and went 1 of 5 from the field in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Coppin State turnover rate | 33.3% | It ranks 353rd of 357 after 24 giveaways at Virginia Tech. |
|---|---|---|
| South Florida steal rate | 16.7% | It ranks 53rd, built on 13 steals in Mack's debut. |
| South Florida returning minutes | 13.4% | Almost the entire roster is new, so last season's numbers say little about this team. |
| South Florida pace | 78.5 | These possessions per 40 minutes rank 49th and give the Bulls more chances to turn steals into points. |
| Last meeting | 100-50 | South Florida won by that score at the Yuengling Center in November 2025. |
Coppin State vs South Florida: quick answers
When is Coppin State vs South Florida?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.