Colorado vs Providence prediction: Providence's steal-happy rebuild tests Colorado's ball security in Providence

Providence's hands set the tone

Bryan Hodgson's first Providence team, built almost entirely from transfers, made its first impression with its hands. Against Maine the Friars posted a steal rate of 23.9% (steals per opponent possession), 5th of 357 Division I teams, and turned the Black Bears over on 32.4% of possessions. Byrd, a preseason All-Big East second-team pick, and Gavin Hightower off the bench drove most of it.

Colorado's guards will carry the load in keeping that from happening again. The Buffaloes turned it over on 15.7% of possessions against Abilene Christian, a middling 142nd. Last season's group was tidier, ranking 49th in turnover rate, and Hargress, who ran much of that offense, is back. Alex Dickeson added six assists off the bench in the opener.

One caution covers all of this: each team has played one game, and Maine ranks 341st in adjusted net efficiency. These numbers show what the Friars want to do more than what they will do against a Big 12 backcourt.

Colorado shoots well, and picks its spots

Colorado's opener was a shooting clinic: 52.6% from three, 7th nationally. What stands out is how selective it was. Only 32.8% of the Buffaloes' shots were threes, which ranks 299th. Tad Boyle's team took the good ones and made them.

Providence gave Maine plenty of room from outside. The Black Bears took 53.5% of their shots from deep, the 36th-highest opponent rate nationally, and the Friars won by forcing misses and turnovers rather than by denying threes. Inside, Providence held Maine to 35.0% on twos, 49th nationally. If that interior resistance holds, Colorado's path runs through Hargress and Ian Inman spotting up, not through the paint.

Fouls and free throws

Providence's aggressive defense came with a cost. Maine's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) against the Friars was 65.1%, which ranks 343rd of 357. A defense that gambles for steals and sends opponents to the line can lose the points it gains from turnovers.

The Friars also struggled at the line themselves, shooting 57.9%, 295th nationally. In a game against an opponent close to its level, missed free throws could swing a one-possession finish. Josiah Sanders went to the line often for Colorado in the opener and made most of his attempts.

Two rebuilt rosters, one rematch

Neither team looks much like last season's version, so last season's numbers say little about either. Providence returns 12.6% of last season's minutes, and forward Ryan Mela is the only notable returner. Colorado brings back 36.5%, but it lost leading scorer Isaiah Johnson to Texas. Colorado won last season's meeting 97-88 in Boulder. Last season's final adjusted ratings had these programs close, with Providence 72nd and Colorado 84th, but those ratings describe different rosters.

Availability is worth checking close to tip. Providence's Devin Vanterpool missed the Georgia Tech exhibition with an ankle injury and was expected back for the Maine opener; nothing newer has come out. Ryan Sabol had a shoulder issue and was seen warming up before an exhibition, with no later update. Jacob Bannarbie played through a preseason back issue and went 7-of-7 against Maine. For Colorado, Charlotte transfer David Gomez had returned to practice from foot stress fractures and played five minutes in a mid-October exhibition, with no fuller timetable given.