Central Michigan vs Northern Kentucky prediction: Northern Kentucky's trips to the foul line test a foul-prone Central Michigan

Living at the free throw line

Northern Kentucky has played two road and neutral games and scored at least 84 points in each. It plays its first home game of the season against a Central Michigan team whose defense fouled its way through its opener.

The Norse attack the basket. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 61.3%, 26th of 357, and they make 81.5% of those tries, 37th nationally. Willie Foster, the team's highest-usage player, has made 93.3% at the line. Central Michigan let Louisiana-Monroe reach the line at a rate that ranks 272nd. A whistle-heavy afternoon favors the home team.

The paint is where this gets contested. Northern Kentucky is making 66.2% of its twos, 51st in the country. Central Michigan blocks 19.0% of opponents' two-point tries, 48th, and center Conrad Luczynski had three blocks in the opener. If he can deter drives without fouling, the Norse lose their easiest points.

Extra chances for the Chippewas

Central Michigan's path is volume. The Chippewas grabbed 44.4% of their own misses against Louisiana-Monroe, 54th nationally. Northern Kentucky's defensive rebounding ranks 217th, so second chances should be there.

The same opener showed the cost. Central Michigan turned it over on 22.5% of possessions, 291st. Northern Kentucky may not punish that much: its forced turnover rate ranks 281st, so the Norse don't force many turnovers.

The Chippewas also hunt threes. They took 46.8% of their shots from deep, 91st in attempt rate, and made 41.4%. Northern Kentucky has allowed opponents to take 41.0% of their shots from three. If those shots keep falling, Central Michigan can match the Norse's scoring.

Two rosters starting over

Last season's numbers say little about either team. Northern Kentucky returns only 23.8% of last season's minutes and 11.2% of its points. Its top four scorers are gone, including LJ Wells, who transferred to Louisville. The 20-14 team that won 90-66 in Mount Pleasant last November has largely moved on.

Coach Darrin Horn rebuilt through transfers, and they have carried the offense. Pagotto, who averaged 10.4 points at East Texas A&M last season, is scoring 24.5 a game on 76.2% shooting. La Salle transfer Eric Acker is averaging 8.5 assists. The Norse were picked fifth in the Horizon League.

Central Michigan, in Andy Bronkema's second season, kept more of its roster, with 39.7% of minutes returning from a 10-21 team. Phat Phat Brooks is the player to watch. He shot 17.6% from three last season, then went 3-of-5 with six assists in the opener. Kansas City transfer Jayson Petty adds scoring off the bench.

Pace, first halves and soft openers

Northern Kentucky plays fast, at 75.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 98th nationally. It averages 47.0 first-half points, 65th. Central Michigan scored only 32 in the first half against Louisiana-Monroe and trailed 32-43 before rallying to win 83-78.

The early schedules have been light. Louisiana-Monroe ranked 350th by last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Northern Kentucky's wins came against teams ranked 266th and 287th. Both teams arrive well rested, with 12 and 10 days off, so neither has a scheduling edge.