Bradley vs George Mason prediction: Bradley's ball security is the one constant in a rebuilt matchup

Two programs started over

Almost nobody on either bench has played many minutes together. Bradley brings back 13.0% of last season's minutes and George Mason 15.0%, so the Showdown in St. Pete finale at Eckerd College's McArthur Center is a test of two new rosters on a neutral floor. Last season's team numbers say little about either side.

The Braves lost their engine. Jaquan Johnson, who averaged 16.9 points, left for Iowa State, and sharpshooter Alex Huibregtse is gone too. Brian Wardle, in his 11th season, restocked with transfers. Trevon Payton shot 47.1% from three at Arkansas-Pine Bluff last season. Ben Thornbrue, from Southern Idaho, scored 17 off the bench in the opener on 7-of-9 shooting.

Tony Skinn's Patriots lost Kory Mincy to South Carolina, Jahari Long to Wichita State and Riley Allenspach to Cincinnati. Their replacements arrive with bigger résumés. Baraka Okojie averaged 19.7 points at Mercer last season. Against UMBC, though, Butler transfer Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor carried the load with 17 points, while Okojie went 2-of-10 from the field and settled for distributing.

The ball stays with Bradley

Bradley turned it over on 10.6% of its possessions in the opener (turnover rate, giveaways per 100 possessions), 21st nationally. That came against Monmouth (IL), a non-Division I team, so on its own it would mean little. What makes it worth noting is that last season's almost entirely different roster ranked 18th in the same stat.

George Mason's defense isn't built to take the ball away. The Patriots forced turnovers on 16.9% of UMBC's possessions, 230th nationally, and last season's group ranked 263rd. If neither side gifts possessions, there will be few easy transition baskets, and the game turns on who makes shots in the half court.

Threes against a wall inside

Bradley's new group fired away in the opener: 50.7% of its field goal attempts were threes, 51st in the country. That fits a roster built around shooters like Payton and Josh Ibukunoluwa, who hit 3-of-4 from deep against Monmouth.

That volume may be a necessity against this George Mason defense. The Patriots held UMBC to 29.3% on twos, 16th nationally, and allowed a free throw rate of just 9.7%, fifth in Division I. Bradley's guards won't find much at the rim or the line.

If the game stays close, watch the stripe. Bradley made 52.9% of its free throws in the opener, 330th nationally, while George Mason hit 77.3%.

Open questions before tip

George Mason may be missing size it was counting on. James Nnaji, the 7-foot Baylor transfer, may still be awaiting eligibility clearance for this season, and the school's announcement of his arrival didn't address it. He averaged 1.4 points and 2.1 rebounds in 8.2 minutes per game at Baylor last season, so he would be a depth piece up front rather than a scorer.

The Patriots covered as 19.5-point favorites in an 82-54 rout of UMBC, a game that stayed under the total. Bradley's opener had no line. The Braves host Pacific on Nov. 7 before heading to Florida.

The last meeting went Bradley's way: a 75-67 win at George Mason in March 2025, with both rosters since turned over.