Austin Peay vs Wichita State prediction: Will Berg carries a thinning Wichita State frontcourt into Austin Peay test
With Noah Hill lost for the season, the Shockers' preseason all-conference center has to own the paint against a rebuilt Austin Peay roster that loves to take the ball.
- Wichita State should work through Will Berg inside while Austin Peay's new-look, ball-hawking guards try to speed the game up.
- Berg against an Austin Peay defense that ranked 314th in block rate last season, with Wichita State's center depth thin.
- No line posted yet. Wichita State failed to cover -15.5 in its opener, posting a 42.7% effective field goal rate.
Berg and the shrinking middle
Wichita State opens its first American Conference season as the league's preseason pick, with nine of 13 first-place votes. Then the frontcourt started shrinking. Sophomore center Noah Hill will miss all of 2026-27 with a foot injury, announced Nov. 3, leaving William Berg and New Mexico State transfer Cyr Malonga as the only healthy centers. The Shockers moved fast to bring back Emmanuel Okorafor, who started 26 games at center last season, and he threw down an alley-oop on his first possession back against Cal State Northridge.
Berg is why the loss hasn't shown up yet. The preseason all-conference first-teamer put up 26 points and 16 rebounds in the opener. Austin Peay's interior gives him room to do it again: last season the Govs blocked 7.0% of opponents' two-point tries, 314th nationally. The real risk is fouls. Every whistle on Berg pushes Paul Mills deeper into a rotation he didn't plan for.
The depth chart has other dents. Forward Dillon Battie sat out the opener as a precaution with a minor hamstring issue, and a player listed as Williams hurt a knee, with his status for Sunday's USC game in doubt as of Nov. 4. Neither has a newer update.
A Govs roster built from scratch
Corey Gipson's program won its first ASUN title last February, then lost most of the team that won it. Only 29.2% of last season's minutes are back, and leading scorer Collin Parker's 17.6 points a game left with him. Last season's team numbers are a weak guide here.
What returns is a sturdy pair. Point guard Zyree Collins opened with 18 points and eight rebounds, and forward Rashaud Marshall, who made 65.6% of his shots last season, didn't miss from the floor. Freshman Cam Ryans, the first Gatorade Player of the Year to commit to Austin Peay, added 15 off the bench.
Read the 109-65 romp over Lane College carefully. Lane College is a far softer opponent than anything Austin Peay will see in Wichita, so the 62 first-half points say more about the matchup than the team. Austin Peay plays at Kennesaw State on Friday, a far better read on this group before it reaches Wichita.
Turnovers and the offensive glass
Wichita State turned it over on just 3.9% of its possessions against Northridge, the best rate in the country so far. Austin Peay is built to test that. Last season the Govs ranked 14th in steal rate, and Marshall transfer Shamarrie Hugie grabbed four steals against Lane. If Austin Peay turns this into a game of live-ball takeaways, its smaller margin for error in the halfcourt matters less.
Wichita State's counter is the offensive boards. Last season's Shockers grabbed 38.5% of their own misses, fifth in the nation. With Berg and Okorafor both on the floor at times, second chances are the clearest path to easy points against a team that rarely blocks shots.
Pace and a cold opening night
The tempo preferences differ. Wichita State played at a pace that ranked 283rd last season, while Austin Peay ranked 48th. Expect the Govs to push after steals and the Shockers to settle into Berg post-ups.
The Shockers' perimeter shooting was the worry in the opener. Their effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) was 42.7%, 292nd nationally, and Kenyon Giles needed 13 three-point attempts to make four. Chattanooga transfer Jordan Frison, who shot 45.5% from three last season, is the likeliest correction after a quiet debut.
No spread or total has been posted. Wichita State won its opener 79-67 but didn't cover as a 15.5-point favorite, and the game stayed under a 162.25 total.
Key players
- William Berg (Wichita State): Posted 26 points and 16 rebounds in the opener with Wichita State's center depth thinned.
- Kenyon Giles (Wichita State): Scored 21 with a career-high eight assists against Northridge but went 4 of 13 from three.
- Jordan Frison (Wichita State): Averaged 16.4 points at Chattanooga last season before a 6-point Wichita State debut.
- Zyree Collins (Austin Peay): Returning starter had 18 points and eight rebounds in the opener with a 30.5% usage rate.
- Rashaud Marshall (Austin Peay): Made 65.6% of his shots last season while averaging 16.3 points.
- Cam Ryans (Austin Peay): Scored 15 points in 20 minutes off the bench in his college debut.
Numbers that matter
| Wichita State turnover rate | 3.9% | Best in the country after one game, and Austin Peay's steal-heavy defense will test it. |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Peay block rate, last season | 314th | Little rim protection last season, which favors Berg in the post. |
| Austin Peay returning minutes | 29.2% | Most of last season's ASUN title team is gone, so last season's numbers say little. |
| Wichita State opener eFG% | 42.7% | Ranked 292nd nationally against Northridge, a shooting slump the Shockers need to shake. |
Austin Peay vs Wichita State: quick answers
When is Austin Peay vs Wichita State?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.