Air Force vs Pacific prediction: Air Force's returning cast tests Pacific's nine-transfer rebuild
Joe Crispin inherits nearly the whole roster from a last-place offense, while Dave Smart rebuilt Pacific almost from scratch, and that split decides how much last season should count.
- Pacific's rebuilt roster should control this at home unless Air Force's veterans show far more than they did in the Wright State opener.
- Air Force's ball security and work on the offensive glass against a Pacific team that has played only a non-Division I opponent.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Air Force closed +12.25 at Wright State and failed to cover in a game that went over 163.5.
One roster kept, one rebuilt
Air Force kept almost everyone. Players on this season's roster accounted for 98.3% of last season's minutes. The catch is what those minutes produced: a 3-29 record and an offense that ranked 365th of 365 in efficiency (points per 100 possessions). Last season's adjusted net efficiency, which also accounts for opponents, ranked 348th. The big change is on the bench. Joe Crispin, hired off Penn State's staff in March, took over this fall.
Pacific went the other way. Returning players logged just 8.6% of last season's minutes under second-year coach Dave Smart, who doubled the program's win total in his first year. Nine players with Division I experience arrived. That makes last season's Pacific profile, 115th in adjusted net efficiency, a weak guide to this team. Air Force's numbers describe mostly the same players. Pacific's describe a team that is mostly gone.
A first half to forget
Crispin's debut at Wright State on Nov. 2 was over by halftime. The Falcons trailed 60-31 at the break, and Dominic Pangonis scored 30, 27 of them in the first half. Wright State posted a 67.2% effective field goal percentage, a measure that counts threes 1.5 times. That came against a defense that was already among the worst in the country last season. Air Force did play better after halftime. Wright State is no powerhouse, ranking 141st in adjusted net efficiency. Crispin's verdict was blunt: "We just weren't ourselves."
Pacific's opener tells you less. The Tigers beat Bethesda 102-47, and Bethesda carries no Division I rating, so Pacific's eye-popping shooting numbers from that night are close to meaningless. This will be the first real look at how the new pieces fit.
Who carries the load
For Air Force, Kam Sanders is still the engine and took the most shots in the opener. He scored 17, and freshman Grant Best matched him with 17 in his debut. Best's arrival is the clearest new thing about this roster. Lucas Hobin, a high-volume shooter last season, went scoreless from the field at Wright State.
Pacific's lead guard is Jaden Winston, who averaged 15.3 points as a full-time starter at Manhattan last season. He opened the Bethesda run with back-to-back threes. Jaylen Thompson, a little-used forward at Stanford, scored 21 in the opener, and Adriel Nyorha added a well-rounded line. How much of that holds up against a Division I defense is the question for Pacific.
The glass and the giveaways
Last season Air Force gave the ball away on 22.0% of its possessions, which ranked 358th, and rebounded only 21.4% of its own misses, which ranked 362nd. Those two numbers explain much of that last-place offense, and the opener showed some progress on the glass even in a blowout. Pacific was eighth nationally in defensive rebounding last season, but the players behind that number have mostly left.
One more stat matters if this stays close. Air Force made 64.1% of its free throws last season, the worst mark in Division I, with largely the same shooters back.
Where the number lands
No spread or total has been posted. Air Force is 0-1 against the spread after closing +12.25 at Wright State, and that game cleared a 163.5 total. Under Crispin, the Falcons played much faster in the opener, at 74.5 possessions, than last season's 67. Faster play means more possessions and a higher total. Pacific won last season's meeting 80-65 in Colorado Springs, though few of those Tigers remain.
Both teams will have had well over a week off. The game is listed for 1 p.m. Pacific time on ESPN+, but not every listing has confirmed the tip time.
Key players
- Kam Sanders (Air Force): Scored 17 on 6-of-16 shooting at Wright State after averaging 12.5 points last season.
- Grant Best (Air Force): Debuted with 17 points and 4 steals in 31 minutes.
- Lucas Hobin (Air Force): Went 0-for-4 in the opener after averaging 11.4 points on 220 three-point attempts last season.
- Jaden Winston (Pacific): Averaged 15.3 points and shot 36.4% from three at Manhattan last season, then dished 7 assists in the opener.
- Jaylen Thompson (Pacific): Scored 21 against Bethesda after averaging 2.3 points at Stanford last season.
- Adriel Nyorha (Pacific): Posted 15 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Air Force returning minutes | 98.3% | Nearly the entire roster from a 3-29 team is back, so last season's numbers still apply. |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific returning minutes | 8.6% | Pacific rebuilt almost entirely through transfers, which makes last season's ratings a weak guide. |
| Air Force adjusted net rank, last season | 348th | The baseline Crispin inherits with almost the same players. |
| Air Force offensive rebound %, last season | 21.4% | Ranked 362nd and was a major reason the offense finished last in Division I. |
| First-half points allowed at Wright State | 60.0 | Air Force's opener was effectively decided by halftime. |
Air Force vs Pacific: quick answers
When is Air Force vs Pacific?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.