Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors prediction: Warriors' shooters get a crack at the NBA's worst 3-point defense
Phoenix has let opponents shoot 43.9% from deep, and a tired, short-handed Golden State still makes threes at one of the best rates in the league.
| Spread | Golden State Warriors -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 227 |
- Golden State's shooting and offensive rebounding test a rested Phoenix defense that ranks last in efficiency. Booker has to carry the Suns again.
- Warriors shooters against the Suns' perimeter defense: Golden State hits 40.0% from three, and Phoenix allows 43.9%, worst in the league.
- Golden State is -2.5 with a 227.0 total, down from -4.5 and 227.5 when our feed first recorded the game Monday morning. Phoenix is 0-4 against the spread.
Open looks everywhere
Phoenix arrives at Chase Center rested and stung, three days removed from a loss to Denver that ended with Dillon Brooks ejected. Golden State arrives on the second night of a back-to-back, with its biggest names in street clothes or in doubt. The question is whether the league's worst defense can slow a team that keeps making shots no matter who takes them.
Phoenix is allowing 122.9 points per 100 possessions, 30th of 30. The damage starts at the arc: opponents are hitting 43.9% of their threes, also last. Golden State is shooting 40.0% from deep, 2nd in the league, and it lives out there. That is the clearest edge in this game.
It is also a four-game sample, and opponent 3-point percentage tends to cool. Last season the Suns held opponents to 34.7% from three, 2nd-best in the league. But Royce O'Neale and Grayson Allen, two rotation regulars on that perimeter, are now in Charlotte, so part of that defense is gone.
A second chance on every miss
Golden State grabs 33.2% of its own misses (offensive rebound rate), best in the league. Phoenix secures just 65.1% of opponents' misses, 30th. With Mark Williams out until around February after surgery on a torn labrum, the Suns need Oso Ighodaro, who is off the injury report after an oblique strain cost him two games, and rookie Khaman Maluach to hold the glass.
Phoenix's counter is pressure. The Suns force turnovers on 17.3% of opponent possessions, 6th in the league, and the Warriors give it away on 16.7% of theirs, 23rd. Live-ball steals are the cleanest way for Phoenix to make up for the extra possessions it gives away on the boards.
Who suits up for Golden State
Stephen Curry and Draymond Green sat Sunday's 124-112 win over the Clippers for rest, and their status for Monday is unsettled. Some listings carry both as out, while other previews expect both back, and no pregame update had surfaced. Curry's Sunday absence was part of managing his right knee.
Gui Santos left Sunday's game at halftime with a knee injury and is expected to sit, though he is still listed day-to-day. Kristaps Porzingis remains away from the team while dealing with POTS, and Moses Moody and Jimmy Butler are working back from long-term knee injuries. Charles Bassey made his first start Sunday, part of the fourth starting lineup Golden State has used this season.
None of it has slowed the Warriors. They have won four straight, three of them as underdogs. Phoenix has had three days off. Brooks was ejected Oct. 30 for a Flagrant 2 after kicking Jamal Murray. No suspension has been reported, and he isn't on the injury report.
Booker against the rematch
The last meeting belonged to Devin Booker, who scored 43 in Phoenix's 131-122 win over a short-handed Golden State on Oct. 24. He averaged 26.1 points last season, and the Suns need that kind of night again because the help has been uneven. Miles Bridges scored eight on 3-of-11 shooting in his Suns debut. Luke Kennard shot 47.8% from three for Atlanta last season, but he was questionable with left knee tendinopathy before the Oct. 24 game, and there has been no newer update.
The lack of a true point guard has also become a storyline in Phoenix, though reports that it is frustrating the locker room have been disputed. Collin Gillespie, a 40.1% 3-point shooter last season, is the closest thing the Suns have to a steady organizer.
What the market is saying
Golden State is a 2.5-point favorite at -142 on the moneyline, with the total at 227.0. The line has moved from -4.5 to -2.5 since our feed first recorded the game Monday morning, and the total has slipped from 227.5, a shift toward Phoenix.
The against-the-spread records point in opposite directions. Phoenix is 0-4, including a failed cover as a 9.5-point favorite in the Oct. 24 win. Golden State is 5-2 and has covered five straight. For the total, Phoenix is allowing 66.0 first-half points per game, 29th in the league, so a fast Warriors start would put early pressure on the under.
Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors line movement and odds
| Book | Suns ML | Warriors ML | Suns spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 | +2.5 (-115) | o227.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +108 | -132 | +1.5 (-106) | o227.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +115 | -136 | +2.5 (-113) | o227.5 (-106) |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 | +2.5 (-120) | o227.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 | +2.5 (-110) | o227.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 | +2.5 (-110) | o226.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +120 | -140 | +2.5 (-105) | o227.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 | +2 (-105) | o228 (-110) |
Where the money is on Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors
On the Kalshi moneyline: Phoenix Suns: 16% of bets, 34% of the money; Golden State Warriors: 85% of bets, 66% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Golden State Warriors -2.5: 82% of bets, 69% of the money; Phoenix Suns +2.5: 18% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 227.5: 73% of bets, 85% of the money; Under 227.5: 27% of bets, 15% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Phoenix Suns (3 wallets, $2,185) vs Golden State Warriors (7 wallets, $14,727). Largest: Overlooked-Wetsuit $9,300 on Golden State Warriors, Tys0n8686 $4,583 on Golden State Warriors, Valuable-Animal $2,000 on Phoenix Suns. Spread: Phoenix Suns (2 wallets, $2,039) vs Golden State Warriors (4 wallets, $24,691). Largest: Positive-Console $23,400 on Golden State Warriors, Valuable-Animal $2,000 on Phoenix Suns, forecastication4 $1,044 on Golden State Warriors. Total: over (3 wallets, $364) vs under (1 wallet, $444). Largest: Gracious-Junk $444 on under, 0x0d23… $183 on over, Periodic-Recorder $100 on over.
Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors stats (this season)
| Stat | Phoenix Suns | Golden State Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Offensive efficiency | 110.5 (15th of 30) | 116.0 (5th of 30) |
| Defensive efficiency | 122.9 (30th of 30) | 113.2 (22nd of 30) |
| Net efficiency | -12.3 (27th of 30) | 2.8 (12th of 30) |
| Pace | 101.3 (26th of 30) | 101.5 (25th of 30) |
| Effective FG% | 54.4% (13th of 30) | 55.3% (8th of 30) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 58.7% (29th of 30) | 56.0% (25th of 30) |
| Turnover rate | 15.1% (13th of 30) | 16.7% (23rd of 30) |
| Offensive rebound % | 28.3% (11th of 30) | 33.2% (1st of 30) |
| 3-point % | 35.0% (15th of 30) | 40.0% (2nd of 30) |
| Points in the paint per game | 47.0 (18th of 30) | 43.4 (22nd of 30) |
Key players
- Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns): Averaged 26.1 points and 6.0 assists last season and scored 43 in the Oct. 24 win over Golden State.
- Dillon Brooks (Phoenix Suns): Averaged 20.2 points last season and is available after his Oct. 30 ejection, with no suspension reported.
- Miles Bridges (Phoenix Suns): Averaged 17.1 points and 5.8 rebounds for the Hornets last season before joining Phoenix.
- Collin Gillespie (Phoenix Suns): Shot 40.1% on 578 three-point attempts last season for Phoenix.
- Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors): Averaged 13.8 points and 5.1 rebounds last season and is off the injury report after an October back issue.
- Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors): Averaged 5.5 assists last season. He sat Sunday for rest, and his status for Monday is unsettled.
- Brandon Williams (Golden State Warriors): Averaged 13.0 points in 22.2 minutes for the Mavericks last season.
- Will Richard (Golden State Warriors): Averaged 1.2 steals in 20.0 minutes last season, and his minutes could grow with Santos expected to sit.
Numbers that matter
| Suns opponent 3-point % | 43.9% | Worst in the league, and Golden State's 40.0% from three ranks 2nd. |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors offensive rebound % | 33.2% | Best in the NBA, against a Phoenix defensive rebounding rate that ranks 30th. |
| Suns defensive efficiency | 122.9 | Points allowed per 100 possessions, 30th of 30, after ranking 9th last season. |
| Spread | -4.5 | Golden State's line hasn't moved since our feed first saw the game, despite the Curry and Green uncertainty. |
| Suns ATS record | 0-4 | Phoenix hasn't covered yet, and Golden State has covered five straight. |
Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors: quick answers
Who is favored in Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors?
Golden State Warriors is favored by 2.5 points (Golden State Warriors -2.5).
What is the over/under for Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors?
The total is 227 points.
When is Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET.
Where is Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors played?
Chase Center, San Francisco.
Has the line moved for Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors?
Yes: Phoenix Suns opened +4.5 and is now +2.5, and the total is still 227.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Phoenix Suns: 16% of bets, 34% of the money; Golden State Warriors: 85% of bets, 66% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Golden State Warriors -2.5: 82% of bets, 69% of the money; Phoenix Suns +2.5: 18% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 227.5: 73% of bets, 85% of the money; Under 227.5: 27% of bets, 15% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Phoenix Suns (3 wallets, $2,185) vs Golden State Warriors (7 wallets, $14,727). Largest: Overlooked-Wetsuit $9,300 on Golden State Warriors, Tys0n8686 $4,583 on Golden State Warriors, Valuable-Animal $2,000 on Phoenix Suns. Spread: Phoenix Suns (2 wallets, $2,039) vs Golden State Warriors (4 wallets, $24,691). Largest: Positive-Console $23,400 on Golden State Warriors, Valuable-Animal $2,000 on Phoenix Suns, forecastication4 $1,044 on Golden State Warriors. Total: over (3 wallets, $364) vs under (1 wallet, $444). Largest: Gracious-Junk $444 on under, 0x0d23… $183 on over, Periodic-Recorder $100 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.