New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies prediction: Unbeaten Memphis bombs from deep as New Orleans tries to bully the paint
The league's best 3-point shooting team hosts the league's top paint-scoring team, and the Pelicans' grab-everything defense may decide whether the Grizzlies extend their streak.
| Spread | Memphis Grizzlies -6 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 231.5 |
- Memphis should win the shooting battle. New Orleans needs paint points, steals and free throws to keep this close at FedExForum.
- The Pelicans' paint attack, 1st in the league, against a Memphis defense that ranks 5th in paint points allowed.
- Memphis -6 and a 234.5 total haven't moved since our feed first saw the game, and the Grizzlies are 6-0 against the spread.
Two offenses, opposite blueprints
Memphis was a 25-57 team last season. Six games into this one, the Grizzlies are unbeaten, have covered every spread and own the league's best net efficiency. New Orleans arrives at 2-4 with a style built to drag games into the paint, and the collision of those approaches is the story Monday night.
The Grizzlies are making 41.7% of their threes, best in the league. That shooting covers for a 2-point percentage that ranks 26th. The Pelicans are built the other way. They take threes on just 32.9% of their shots, fewest of any team, and score 62.7 paint points a game, most in the NBA. Memphis allows only 43.0 in the paint, 5th-best, so New Orleans' biggest strength runs straight into one of Memphis' best.
The Pelicans' counter is on the perimeter. Opponents are hitting 30.5% from deep against them, 5th in the league. If that holds against the league's hottest shooters, this gets tight. The interior offers no cushion: opponents shoot 60.5% on twos against New Orleans, which ranks 29th.
Steals, sloppiness and the line
New Orleans steals the ball on 12.7% of opponent possessions, the highest rate in the league. Those steals feed a fast break that scores 19.5 points a game, 3rd in the NBA. Memphis sits 16th in turnover rate, so it isn't immune.
The Pelicans give the ball right back, though. Their turnover rate of 17.3 per 100 possessions ranks 26th. Memphis rarely punishes that, ranking 28th in steal rate, which makes New Orleans' carelessness cheaper than usual.
Free throws tilt toward the visitors. The Pelicans' free throw rate (attempts per shot) of 35.4% ranks 4th, and Memphis ranks 23rd in opponent free throw rate. Points at the line are the Pelicans' cleanest path around a defense that walls off the rim.
Who suits up
The Pelicans are shorthanded again. Jordan Poole is out with a left ankle sprain for a third straight game, and Yves Missi (left knee bruise) is out, with Karlo Matković expected to start at center. Trey Murphy III is probable with a knee issue. Dejounte Murray, who missed the last two games after the birth of his son, was not on the injury report as of Nov. 1.
Memphis' list is messier. Scotty Pippen Jr. is doubtful with back soreness after missing Saturday's win, which should mean more minutes for Cam Spencer. Ty Jerome's back has produced conflicting reports, so his status is unsettled. Quinten Post (right ankle) is listed questionable, though at least one report has him out.
Don't lean on last season for Memphis. The roster returns only 52.6% of its minutes, with Jaren Jackson Jr. now in Utah and Jerami Grant arriving from Portland. Cameron Boozer posted a triple-double in Saturday's 136-105 rout of Sacramento. New Orleans, by contrast, returned 85.0% of its minutes and changed mainly at the top, with Jamahl Mosley now coaching.
What the market expects
Memphis is a 6-point favorite with the total at 234.5, and neither number has budged. The Grizzlies have covered all six games, and four of their six have gone under. New Orleans is 4-2 against the spread, with four overs.
Tempo explains the high total. The Pelicans play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the league, while Memphis sits 13th. Last season's series split evenly, and the Pelicans won both January meetings, including 133-127 in Memphis.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies line movement and odds
| Book | Pelicans ML | Grizzlies ML | Pelicans spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 | +5.5 (-105) | o231.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +175 | -215 | +5.5 (-113) | o230.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +178 | -214 | +5.5 (-105) | o231.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +170 | -200 | +5.5 (-110) | o231.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +175 | -235 | +5.5 (-110) | o231.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | +162 | -210 | +6.5 (-120) | o231.5 (-114) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +180 | -220 | +5.5 (-110) | o231.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +165 | -210 | +5.5 (-115) | o231.5 (-115) |
Where the money is on New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Orleans Pelicans: 22% of bets, 54% of the money; Memphis Grizzlies: 78% of bets, 46% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Memphis Grizzlies -5.5: 63% of bets, 89% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans +5.5: 37% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 231.5: 44% of bets, 93% of the money; Under 231.5: 56% of bets, 7% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: New Orleans Pelicans (2 wallets, $2,029) vs Memphis Grizzlies (1 wallet, $1,920). Largest: Valuable-Animal $2,000 on New Orleans Pelicans, Yummy-Church-Seminar $1,920 on Memphis Grizzlies, Unconscious-Eggnog $29 on New Orleans Pelicans. Spread: New Orleans Pelicans (1 wallet, $75) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8 wallets, $7,623). Largest: Positive-Console $4,402 on Memphis Grizzlies, forecastication4 $1,415 on Memphis Grizzlies, Yummy-Church-Seminar $960 on Memphis Grizzlies. Total: over (5 wallets, $1,255) vs under (2 wallets, $114). Largest: 0x6387… $492 on over, Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $294 on over, 0x0d23… $264 on over.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies stats (this season)
| Stat | New Orleans Pelicans | Memphis Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 6-0 |
| Offensive efficiency | 110.9 (14th of 30) | 117.0 (2nd of 30) |
| Defensive efficiency | 109.2 (15th of 30) | 102.3 (2nd of 30) |
| Net efficiency | 1.7 (14th of 30) | 14.6 (1st of 30) |
| Pace | 107.9 (2nd of 30) | 103.6 (13th of 30) |
| Effective FG% | 55.2% (9th of 30) | 55.9% (5th of 30) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 54.2% (21st of 30) | 49.2% (3rd of 30) |
| Turnover rate | 17.3% (26th of 30) | 15.4% (16th of 30) |
| Offensive rebound % | 24.0% (25th of 30) | 30.6% (5th of 30) |
| 3-point % | 31.2% (25th of 30) | 41.7% (1st of 30) |
| Points in the paint per game | 62.7 (1st of 30) | 47.3 (16th of 30) |
Key players
- Trey Murphy III (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaged 21.5 points on 37.9% 3-point shooting last season and is probable with a knee issue.
- Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaged 21.0 points on 60.0% shooting last season, the heart of the league's top paint attack.
- Bennedict Mathurin (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaged 17.6 points for the Pacers last season before joining New Orleans.
- Cam Spencer (Memphis Grizzlies): Shot 44.9% from three for Memphis last season and should see extra minutes with Pippen doubtful.
- Jerami Grant (Memphis Grizzlies): Averaged 18.6 points for the Trail Blazers last season.
- Cedric Coward (Memphis Grizzlies): Averaged 13.6 points last season and added 17 in Saturday's rout of Sacramento.
Numbers that matter
| Memphis 3-point % | 41.7% | Best in the league, against a Pelicans defense holding opponents to 30.5% from deep. |
|---|---|---|
| Pelicans paint points per game | 62.7 | Most in the NBA, facing a Memphis defense that ranks 5th in paint points allowed. |
| Pelicans steal rate | 12.7% | 1st in the league, their best tool for generating easy points. |
| Pelicans turnover rate | 17.3 | Ranks 26th, though Memphis is 28th in steal rate and rarely cashes in. |
| Spread | -6 | Memphis' number hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. |
New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies: quick answers
Who is favored in New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Memphis Grizzlies is favored by 6 points (Memphis Grizzlies -6).
What is the over/under for New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies?
The total is 231.5 points.
When is New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Where is New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies played?
FedExForum, Memphis.
Has the line moved for New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Yes: New Orleans Pelicans opened +6.5 and is now +5.5, and the total moved from 235.5 to 231.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies?
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Orleans Pelicans: 22% of bets, 54% of the money; Memphis Grizzlies: 78% of bets, 46% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Memphis Grizzlies -5.5: 63% of bets, 89% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans +5.5: 37% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 231.5: 44% of bets, 93% of the money; Under 231.5: 56% of bets, 7% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: New Orleans Pelicans (2 wallets, $2,029) vs Memphis Grizzlies (1 wallet, $1,920). Largest: Valuable-Animal $2,000 on New Orleans Pelicans, Yummy-Church-Seminar $1,920 on Memphis Grizzlies, Unconscious-Eggnog $29 on New Orleans Pelicans. Spread: New Orleans Pelicans (1 wallet, $75) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8 wallets, $7,623). Largest: Positive-Console $4,402 on Memphis Grizzlies, forecastication4 $1,415 on Memphis Grizzlies, Yummy-Church-Seminar $960 on Memphis Grizzlies. Total: over (5 wallets, $1,255) vs under (2 wallets, $114). Largest: 0x6387… $492 on over, Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $294 on over, 0x0d23… $264 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.