Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli prediction: Marcos Degli brings a finisher's résumé against decision-proof Mitch Raposo
A Contender Series signee with 9 knockout wins as a pro debuts against a flyweight who has heard the final bell in every UFC fight he has had.
| Mitch Raposo | +188 (33.3% implied) |
|---|---|
| Marcos Degli | -230 (66.7% implied) |
- Degli hunts a stoppage early while Raposo tries to drag it long, mixing takedown attempts and pushing toward his familiar 15-minute decision.
- Watch Raposo's level changes. He averages 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Degli just won his contract with a standing rear-naked choke.
- Degli is -230 with a 66.7% no-vig chance. He opened at -250, and money has drifted toward Raposo, who stops 71% of takedowns.
Nobody has finished Raposo
Every fight of Mitch Raposo's UFC career has gone to the judges. He is 2-2 in the UFC, and his average fight lasts 15.0 minutes, the full scheduled distance. Most of those cards were split, including his June win over Allan Nascimento, which extended his streak to two.
That durability is the floor of his game, and it matters here because his opponent has rarely needed the judges. The ceiling is the problem. Raposo lands 1.82 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.88, so he is usually behind in the exchanges even when he wins. Against Nascimento he was outlanded 58 to 38 and still got the nod. Living that close to the line works against careful opponents. It is riskier against someone who arrives looking to end the fight.
Degli's run of stoppages
Marcos Degli is 15-3 as a pro and has won 13 straight after starting his career 2-3. The finishes tell you how: 9 wins by knockout and 5 by submission. He trains with Carlos Prates, and his base is Muay Thai, with a reputation for aggressive striking.
He earned his contract on Dana White's Contender Series with something less expected, a standing one-arm rear-naked choke on Paris Moran at 4:46 of round two. Afterward he said he wanted to show he can submit people, not only knock them out. There are no UFC numbers on him yet. His regional titles are also murky: sources variously call him an LFA champion, a former champion and an interim champion.
Where Raposo can win it
Raposo's best tool is the takedown attempt, though not the takedown itself. He averages 1.75 per 15 minutes on 32% accuracy. His most committed wrestling night came against Sumudaerji, when he landed 6 of 19 attempts and banked 258 seconds of control, and he still lost a split decision because he landed only 9 significant strikes.
That is the tension. Shots and clinch work could slow a Muay Thai striker and blunt his early pressure. But Degli just showed he can choke someone from the back, so scrambles carry risk. Raposo stops 71% of takedown attempts, which should keep him upright if Degli wants the mat. He gives up a little reach, 64.5 inches to 67, and his switch stance is one way to complicate an orthodox striker's entries.
What the price says
Degli is the -230 favorite across 8 books, with Raposo at +188. With the margin removed, that is 66.7% for the debutant. The first price our feed recorded was steeper, Degli -250 and Raposo +208, so the movement has been toward the fighter with the UFC experience. Raposo is listed as high as 12th at flyweight, although one profile has him 13th.
The market is pricing Degli's finishing record against a man who has never been stopped inside the Octagon. Raposo has not been knocked out or submitted in the UFC, and his path is the one he always takes: survive, stay competitive and let the cards decide.
Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli line movement and odds
| Book | Raposo ML | Degli ML | Raposo spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -225 | +185 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -230 | +180 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -230 | +190 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -245 | +186 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -225 | +180 | — | — |
| Caesars | -220 | +180 | — | — |
Where the money is on Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli
On the Kalshi moneyline: Mitch Raposo: 69% of bets, 45% of the money; Marcos Degli: 31% of bets, 55% of the money.
Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli: tale of the tape
| Mitch Raposo | Marcos Degli | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 11-3-0 | 15-3-0 |
| UFC record | 2-2 | UFC debut |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 9-7 (56.2%) | — |
| Age | 28 | 26 |
| Height | 5' 5" | 5' 6" |
| Reach | 64.5" | 67" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 1.82 | — |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.88 | — |
| Striking accuracy | 42% | — |
| Striking defense | 61% | — |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.75 | — |
| Takedown defense | 71% | — |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.00 | — |
The fighters
- Mitch Raposo (Mitch Raposo): All four of his UFC fights went the distance, where he landed 1.82 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 2.88.
- Marcos Degli (Marcos Degli): He debuts at 15-3 as a pro on a 13-fight win streak, with 9 knockout wins and 5 submission wins.
Numbers that matter
| Raposo average fight time | 15.0 | He has gone the full three rounds in every UFC fight, winning and losing on the cards. |
|---|---|---|
| Degli pro KO wins | 9 | Most of his professional wins came by knockout, the threat Raposo has not faced in this form. |
| Raposo takedown defense | 71% | It should help him stay upright against a debutant whose latest win was a submission. |
| Raposo control time vs. Sumudaerji | 258 | He banked 258 seconds of control and still lost a split decision, a warning that grappling alone has not carried him. |
| Degli moneyline | -230 | He was first seen at -250, so the money has moved modestly toward Raposo. |
Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli: quick answers
Who is favored in Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli?
Marcos Degli is the favorite at -230; Mitch Raposo is +188.
When is Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli?
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, on the prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli?
Flyweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli?
Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV, USA.
Where is the money on Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Mitch Raposo: 69% of bets, 45% of the money; Marcos Degli: 31% of bets, 55% of the money.