Mantas Kondratavicius vs Andre Petroski prediction: Mantas Kondratavičius hunts a fading Andre Petroski's chin
A Lithuanian puncher with one dazzling UFC fight draws a grinder whose last two losses ended with him trapped on his back.
| Mantas Kondratavicius | -285 (71% implied) |
|---|---|
| Andre Petroski | +230 (29% implied) |
- Kondratavičius should own the standing exchanges; Petroski needs early takedowns and long control before the younger man's hands find him.
- Watch Petroski's first takedown: he lands 53% of them, and Kondratavičius got dragged down late in his debut as he tired.
- Kondratavičius sits at -285, down from -325 as money came toward Petroski. Petroski's four UFC knockout losses are the main reason the favorite is so short.
The chin problem
Andre Petroski has lost three straight, the worst stretch of his career, and how he has lost matters more than the count. Four of his five UFC defeats came by knockout. The last two ended the same way, with punches to the head while he lay in guard. Cam Rowston stopped him in the first round, and Cody Brundage finished him at 0:44 of the second in May.
The Brundage fight was lopsided before the end. Petroski landed 8 significant strikes and absorbed 43. He is now 34 and 8-5 in the UFC, a grinder whose wins have mostly come on the scorecards. Against a puncher, his margin for error has never been thinner.
A loud, thin debut
Mantas Kondratavičius is 9-1 as a pro and 6-0 in fights decided by knockout. His only loss came by submission. He signed from the Contender Series and beat Antonio Trocoli by unanimous decision at UFC London in March, outlanding him 75 to 17 and dropping him once.
He landed 70% of his significant strikes that night, and he was clearly the sharper man whenever they traded. But that is one fight, against an opponent who entered the UFC 0-3. The tape also showed a crack: he got tangled up in the clinch and was dragged to the canvas in the third as he faded. At 27, with the taller frame and the longer reach, he has every physical edge on the feet. His gas tank is the open question.
Petroski's road runs through the mat
Petroski's best version wrestles. He averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 53% of his attempts, and he has spent 39% of his UFC fight time in control. That is the game that beat Rodolfo Vieira and Dylan Budka.
Kondratavičius stopped 92% of takedown attempts in his debut, yet the late clinch trouble suggests the door opens as rounds wear on. Petroski's problem is getting there. He has to survive the early exchanges, and his recent losses show what happens when the position turns and he ends up underneath.
Two replacements, a moving line
Neither man was supposed to be here. Petroski was booked for Oct. 31 against Azamat Bekoev, who withdrew after an anaphylactic reaction. Petroski declined a Halloween replacement and moved to this card. Kondratavičius lost his own opponent when Wes Schultz pulled out, but he was already preparing for this date.
The market still leans hard toward the Lithuanian at -285, about 71% once the margin is stripped out. Petroski is +230. The price has drifted toward Petroski since our feed first saw Kondratavičius at -325, a bet on his wrestling against a debut that lasted only one fight.
Mantas Kondratavicius vs Andre Petroski line movement and odds
| Book | Kondratavicius ML | Petroski ML | Kondratavicius spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -300 | +240 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -315 | +240 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -290 | +235 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -310 | +230 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -325 | +240 | — | — |
| Caesars | -280 | +225 | — | — |
Where the money is on Mantas Kondratavicius vs Andre Petroski
On the Kalshi moneyline: Mantas Kondratavicius: 27% of bets, 36% of the money; Andre Petroski: 73% of bets, 64% of the money.
Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski: tale of the tape
| Mantas Kondratavičius | Andre Petroski | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 9-1-0 | 13-7-0 |
| UFC record | 1-0 | 8-5 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 0-3 (0%) | 43-37-1 (53.8%) |
| Age | 27 | 34 |
| Height | 6' 2" | 6' 0" |
| Reach | 75.5" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.00 | 2.75 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 1.13 | 2.99 |
| Striking accuracy | 70% | 49% |
| Striking defense | 56% | 52% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.00 | 3.12 |
| Takedown defense | 92% | 86% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 1.00 | 1.23 |
The fighters
- Mantas Kondratavičius (Mantas Kondratavičius): He outlanded Antonio Trocoli 75 to 17 and scored a knockdown in his UFC debut.
- Andre Petroski (Andre Petroski): He averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes but has lost four UFC fights by knockout.
Numbers that matter
| Petroski UFC KO/TKO losses | 4 | Two of them came in his last three fights, both finished by punches from guard. |
|---|---|---|
| Kondratavičius pro KO record | 6-0 | Six knockout wins and no knockout losses across a 9-1 pro career. |
| Petroski takedown accuracy | 53% | His wrestling is his clearest path, and he needs it early. |
| Kondratavičius takedown defense | 92% | Built on one fight, in which he still got dragged down in the third as he tired. |
| Kondratavičius moneyline | -285 | Shortened from -325 as money moved toward Petroski. |
Mantas Kondratavicius vs Andre Petroski: quick answers
Who is favored in Mantas Kondratavicius vs Andre Petroski?
Mantas Kondratavicius is the favorite at -285; Andre Petroski is +230.
When is Mantas Kondratavicius vs Andre Petroski?
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, on the main card. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Mantas Kondratavicius vs Andre Petroski?
Middleweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Mantas Kondratavicius vs Andre Petroski?
Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV, USA.
Where is the money on Mantas Kondratavicius vs Andre Petroski?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Mantas Kondratavicius: 27% of bets, 36% of the money; Andre Petroski: 73% of bets, 64% of the money.