Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid prediction: Keiichiro Nakamura's late-round knockout power tests Ollie Schmid's durability
A 38-year-old Road to UFC champion who finishes nearly everyone faces a 25-year-old City Kickboxing striker who has been stopped twice as a pro.
| Keiichiro Nakamura | -350 (74.5% implied) |
|---|---|
| Ollie Schmid | +275 (25.5% implied) |
- Nakamura likely survives early fire and wears Schmid down, hunting a stoppage once the younger man's defense frays over three rounds.
- Watch the first round: Schmid was stopped in 2:47 last time, but Nakamura absorbed heavy volume before finding his finish.
- Nakamura sits at -350 (74.5% implied), with Schmid edging from +284 to +275; Schmid's 3-2 pro KO record bears on it most.
Power against a fragile chin
Keiichiro Nakamura does not go to the judges. He is 8-1 as a pro, and seven of those wins came by knockout. He has not lost since dropping his pro debut in April 2022, and he arrives on an eight-fight win streak that includes a run through the Road to UFC Season 4 featherweight tournament, with wins over Eo Jin Park and Kaiwen Li before the final.
Ollie Schmid's record points the other way. He is 4-3 as a pro, and his knockout line reads 3-2: he has stopped people, and he has been stopped. The most recent stoppage came in May, when Marwan Rahiki finished him with a punch at 2:47 of the first round in Schmid's UFC debut. In that fight he landed 9 significant strikes and absorbed 22. Each man has only one UFC fight, so every per-minute rate here rests on a few minutes of cage time.
Nakamura gets hit, then finishes
Nakamura's UFC debut was not clean. Against Sebastian Szalay he absorbed 79 significant strikes while landing 45, and he was behind on the cards heading into the third round. Then he threw a knee at distance and ended it at 3:48 of the final round, the knockdown that changed everything.
That is the tension in this matchup. Nakamura absorbs 5.72 significant strikes a minute, a number that would invite a sharp, younger striker to let his hands go. But Schmid's own defense lets through more: opponents miss only 45% of their strikes against him, against 61% for Nakamura. Schmid is a Taekwondo black belt listed as a striker, and in his short UFC outing two-thirds of his landed strikes, 67%, went to the legs. Nakamura opened the Szalay fight with a leg-kick focus of his own, so the kicking exchange from the southpaw-versus-orthodox angle could set the early terms.
Age, camp and the price
Schmid holds the physical edges: he is 25 to Nakamura's 38, and at 6 feet with a 71-inch reach he is taller and longer than the 5-foot-10 Nakamura, who has a 70-inch reach. He also arrives in a better position than last time. He took his UFC debut on less than a week's notice, and this time he gets a full camp. Before that debut he scored a 15-second knockout of Jeff Mesa in March.
Nakamura has been out 280 days since January, and at 38 any layoff deserves a look, though nothing points to an injury or camp change. The market trusts the older man: Nakamura is -350 across eight books, an implied 74.5% once the margin is removed. Schmid was first seen in our feed at +284 and sits at +275, a small tightening that leaves Nakamura a clear favorite.
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid line movement and odds
| Book | Nakamura ML | Schmid ML | Nakamura spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +275 | -350 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +270 | -360 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +285 | -360 | — | — |
| FanDuel | +280 | -390 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +275 | -350 | — | — |
| Caesars | +275 | -350 | — | — |
Where the money is on Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid
On the Kalshi moneyline: Keiichiro Nakamura: 35% of bets, 52% of the money; Ollie Schmid: 65% of bets, 48% of the money.
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid: tale of the tape
| Keiichiro Nakamura | Ollie Schmid | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 8-1-0 | 4-3-0 |
| UFC record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 0-0 | 1-0 (100%) |
| Age | 38 | 25 |
| Height | 5' 10" | 6' 0" |
| Reach | 70" | 71" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.26 | 3.23 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 5.72 | 7.90 |
| Striking accuracy | 38% | 30% |
| Striking defense | 61% | 45% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takedown defense | 0% | — |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.00 | 0.00 |
The fighters
- Keiichiro Nakamura (Keiichiro Nakamura): Seven of his eight pro wins came by knockout, including a third-round knee that finished Sebastian Szalay.
- Ollie Schmid (Ollie Schmid): He is 4-3 as a pro and was stopped at 2:47 of the first round in his UFC debut.
Numbers that matter
| Nakamura pro KO record | 7-0 | Seven knockout wins and no knockout losses across a pro career with only one defeat. |
|---|---|---|
| Schmid pro KO record | 3-2 | He can finish, but he has also been stopped twice, most recently in May. |
| Nakamura strikes absorbed vs. Szalay | 79 | He trailed badly in volume before the third-round knee ended the fight. |
| Schmid strike defense | 45% | Opponents land more than half their attempts on him, an opening for a puncher with Nakamura's power. |
| Nakamura moneyline | -350 | An implied 74.5% chance once the books' margin is removed. |
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid: quick answers
Who is favored in Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid?
Keiichiro Nakamura is the favorite at -350; Ollie Schmid is +275.
When is Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid?
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, on the prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid?
Featherweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid?
Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV, USA.
Where is the money on Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Keiichiro Nakamura: 35% of bets, 52% of the money; Ollie Schmid: 65% of bets, 48% of the money.