Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes prediction: Karine Silva needs her takedowns back against Gabriella Fernandes
Silva's best weapon is the mat, but she hasn't finished anyone since 2023 and didn't even try a takedown in her last fight.
| Karine Silva | -219 (65.3% implied) |
|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | +174 (34.7% implied) |
- Silva wins by dragging this to the mat. Standing, Fernandes' busier hands and southpaw stance give her a real path to a decision.
- Watch Silva's takedown entries against Fernandes, who stops 69% of attempts. Silva tried none in her April loss to Jasudavicius.
- Silva has moved from -170 to -219, and the money has moved toward her.
The mat is Silva's country
Karine Silva built her name on chokes. She is 9-2 by submission as a pro, and all three of her UFC submission wins came in the first round. That run ended in 2023, and every fight since has gone the distance. Her takedown numbers explain why the finishing threat still matters: she averages 2.08 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 55% of her attempts.
The worry is that she has stopped committing. Against Ariane da Silva in 2024 she banked 452 seconds of control and won. Against Viviane Araujo she landed one takedown from seven tries and lost. In April against Jasmine Jasudavicius she attempted zero takedowns and dropped a decision on all three cards.
Gabriella Fernandes stops 69% of takedown attempts and almost never wrestles herself. If Silva chain-wrestles through that defense, the fight tilts heavily her way. If she settles for single shots, it turns into Fernandes' kind of fight.
Fernandes lives at range
Fernandes lands 3.51 significant strikes a minute, and 89% of them come at distance. Silva lands just 2.27, and she landed only 15 in fifteen minutes against Jasudavicius. On volume alone, the southpaw Fernandes should win most standing exchanges.
The catch is what comes back. Fernandes absorbs 5.31 significant strikes a minute, a defensive leak that gets her hit too much. Casey O'Neill exposed it in March, stopping her with punches at 3:11 of the first round. Silva has no UFC knockouts, so the danger here isn't one big shot. The danger is that Silva's counters land cleanly enough to steal rounds while Fernandes is busy.
Two Brazilians, both needing it
Both fighters sit in the top 15 at 125 pounds. Silva has dropped three of her last four and wants to close the year on a positive note. Fernandes is looking to restart her push toward the top 10 after the O'Neill loss.
Schedule strength splits them. Silva's UFC opponents were a combined 40-23 going in, while Fernandes' were 9-10. Silva's recent losses came against Maycee Barber and Jasudavicius. Jasudavicius also beat Fernandes back in 2023.
Fernandes said she was reluctant to fight a fellow Brazilian but took the bout rather than wait months for another. She has been living at the MMA Masters gym in Miami for almost three years.
What the market is pricing
Silva was first seen at -170 and now sits at -219, with Fernandes at +174. Without the vig, that implies a 65.3% chance for Silva. The money has moved toward Silva, who has the tougher schedule on her résumé despite her two-fight skid. The number that matters most is how often she actually shoots, because her striking alone hasn't won her a fight lately.
Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes line movement and odds
| Book | Silva ML | Fernandes ML | Silva spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +170 | -220 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +180 | -218 | — | — |
| FanDuel | +172 | -225 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +170 | -220 | — | — |
| Caesars | +170 | -205 | — | — |
Where the money is on Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Karine Silva: 44% of bets, 48% of the money; Gabriella Fernandes: 56% of bets, 53% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Karine Silva (1 wallet, $247). Largest: Neat-Brushfire $247 on Karine Silva.
Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes: tale of the tape
| Karine Silva | Gabriella Fernandes | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 19-7-0 | 11-4-0 |
| UFC record | 5-3 | 3-3 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 40-23 (63.5%) | 9-10 (47.4%) |
| Age | 33 | 33 |
| Height | 5' 5" | 5' 6" |
| Reach | 67" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.27 | 3.51 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.64 | 5.31 |
| Striking accuracy | 40% | 47% |
| Striking defense | 54% | 53% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.08 | 0.42 |
| Takedown defense | 29% | 69% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 1.38 | 0.21 |
The fighters
- Karine Silva (Karine Silva): Silva is 9-2 by submission as a pro but attempted no takedowns in her April decision loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius.
- Gabriella Fernandes (Gabriella Fernandes): Fernandes stops 69% of takedown attempts but absorbs 5.31 significant strikes a minute.
Numbers that matter
| Fernandes takedown defense | 69% | This is the wall Silva's wrestling has to break through to reach her submission game. |
|---|---|---|
| Fernandes strikes absorbed per minute | 5.31 | This leak is why she was knocked out in the first round by Casey O'Neill in March. |
| Silva takedowns per 15 minutes | 2.08 | That is her career baseline, but she attempted none in her most recent fight. |
| Silva moneyline | -219 | She was first seen at -170, so the money has moved toward her since the line opened in our feed. |
Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes: quick answers
Who is favored in Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes?
Karine Silva is the favorite at -219; Gabriella Fernandes is +174.
When is Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes?
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, on the prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes?
Women's Flyweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes?
Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV, USA.
Where is the money on Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Karine Silva: 44% of bets, 48% of the money; Gabriella Fernandes: 56% of bets, 53% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Karine Silva (1 wallet, $247). Largest: Neat-Brushfire $247 on Karine Silva. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.