Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith prediction: Davey Grant's distance game faces Elijah Smith's grappling at 40
Grant wins fights by out-landing people at range, while Smith ends them once he gets close, and the market has moved hard toward the 24-year-old.
| Davey Grant | +241 (28.1% implied) |
|---|---|
| Elijah Smith | -300 (71.9% implied) |
- Grant needs a long, busy fight at distance; Smith wants to close, clinch and finish on the mat, likely before the third round.
- Watch the first clinch. Four of Grant's seven UFC losses came by submission, and Smith controls opponents for a third of his fight time.
- Smith sits at -300 (71.9% implied), out from -240 when our feed first saw it; Grant's 65% takedown defense is his best counter.
Old pro, young finisher
Davey Grant has been in the UFC since the TUF 18 finale, and at 40 he is still winning: three of his last four, most recently a unanimous decision over Adrian Luna Martinetti in April. Elijah Smith is 24, 3-0 in the UFC and on an eight-fight streak overall. A win here would likely push him toward the rankings before the year ends.
The fight comes down to where it happens. Grant is a range fighter who wins on volume. Smith is happiest on top, where his fights tend to end early.
Grant's case lives at distance
Grant lands 5.58 significant strikes a minute in the UFC, and 89% of them come at distance. That output showed against Luna Martinetti, when he landed 162 significant strikes over three rounds.
The cost is that he gets hit. He absorbs 4.04 a minute. Smith absorbs 1.7, and he lands 55% of what he throws. If Smith stands with Grant, the veteran can drag him into a pace fight. Smith has only gone the full 15 minutes once in the UFC.
The ground is Smith's home
Nearly half of Smith's significant strikes, 47%, land on the ground, and he holds control for 33% of his fight time. He also attempts 1.19 submissions per 15 minutes.
He doesn't need a classic shot to get there. Smith logged 229 seconds of control against Toshiomi Kazama without a recorded takedown attempt, then ended it with a slam. Against SuYoung You he dropped him on the feet and finished with a rear-naked choke in the second round.
That is the danger zone for Grant. Four of his seven UFC losses came by submission, including a first-round guillotine from guard against Charles Jourdain last October. He stops 65% of takedown attempts, which is respectable but not a wall. He rarely wrestles himself, with one takedown attempt against Luna Martinetti.
How much to trust the sample
Smith's UFC numbers rest on just 25.2 minutes, and his three UFC opponents went in with a combined 7-8 UFC record. Grant's last five opponents were a combined 14-10-2. Smith is 10-1 as a pro, and Grant is 18-8 as a pro, so Grant has seen far more looks. Smith's rates have never been tested by someone who throws this much for three rounds.
The market's read
Smith is -300 with Grant at +241, which works out to 71.9% for Smith once the books' margin is removed. When our feed first saw this bout it was -240 and +175, so money has flowed to the younger man all week. That price assumes Smith gets his grappling going. Grant's best path is to keep the fight standing and long, where his volume can win rounds.
Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith line movement and odds
| Book | Grant ML | Smith ML | Grant spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -275 | +225 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -286 | +220 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -310 | +250 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -330 | +240 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -275 | +220 | — | — |
| Caesars | -300 | +240 | — | — |
Where the money is on Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith
On the Kalshi moneyline: Davey Grant: 61% of bets, 36% of the money; Elijah Smith: 39% of bets, 64% of the money.
Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith: tale of the tape
| Davey Grant | Elijah Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 18-8-0 | 10-1-0 |
| UFC record | 9-7 | 3-0 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 54-36-2 (60%) | 7-8 (46.7%) |
| Age | 40 | 24 |
| Height | 5' 8" | 5' 9" |
| Reach | 69" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.58 | 3.69 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 4.04 | 1.70 |
| Striking accuracy | 45% | 55% |
| Striking defense | 55% | 52% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.95 | 1.78 |
| Takedown defense | 65% | 46% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.16 | 1.19 |
The fighters
- Davey Grant (Davey Grant): Lands 5.58 significant strikes a minute, 89% of them at distance, but four of his seven UFC losses are submissions.
- Elijah Smith (Elijah Smith): Holds control for 33% of his fight time, and 47% of his significant strikes land on the ground.
Numbers that matter
| Grant significant strikes landed per minute | 5.58 | Volume is his main tool, and he landed 162 against Luna Martinetti in April. |
|---|---|---|
| Smith control time share | 33% | Smith spends a third of his fights in control, and Grant's losses tend to come on the mat. |
| Grant takedown defense | 65% | He stops about two of every three attempts, his main barrier against Smith's top game. |
| Smith moneyline | -300 | It was -240 when our feed first priced the bout, so money has moved toward Smith. |
| Smith UFC minutes | 25.2 | All of Smith's UFC rates come from just 25.2 minutes of cage time, barely more than one five-round fight. |
Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith: quick answers
Who is favored in Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith?
Elijah Smith is the favorite at -300; Davey Grant is +241.
When is Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith?
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, on the main card. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith?
Bantamweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith?
Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV, USA.
Where is the money on Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Davey Grant: 61% of bets, 36% of the money; Elijah Smith: 39% of bets, 64% of the money.