Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild prediction: Wild turn to Calvin Pickard as rested Lightning arrive in Saint Paul
Minnesota owns the league's stingiest defense, but a back-to-back pulls Jesper Wallstedt from the crease, and the market has made Tampa Bay the road favorite.
| Line | Tampa Bay Lightning -135 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Expect a fast Tampa Bay start against a Wild team on short rest, with Minnesota's structure trying to protect a backup goalie.
- Calvin Pickard, the probable Wild starter, against a Lightning attack scoring 3.73 goals per game, 5th in the league.
- Tampa Bay is -140 on the road with Minnesota +116; the Wild are 12-6 on the puck line, so the +1.5 price deserves a look.
The crease changes hands
Minnesota has the best defensive record in hockey, allowing 2.17 goals per game, 1st of 32. Most of that comes from Jesper Wallstedt, who has a .922 save percentage and a 1.99 goals-against average over 16 games. He made a fifth straight start Friday in the 4-1 win over San Jose, so the second half of this home back-to-back is expected to go to Calvin Pickard. The team hasn't confirmed it.
Pickard's two games this season produced an .833 save percentage and a 3.50 goals-against average. That is a tiny sample, but it is the whole gap between Minnesota at full strength and Minnesota tonight. Andrei Vasilevskiy is listed as the probable Tampa Bay starter. The Lightning have not named one, and Dennis Hildeby is the alternative. Vasilevskiy made his 600th career start Thursday against Chicago, a 24-save win, and enters with an .886 save percentage.
Tampa Bay strikes early
The Lightning score 1.33 first-period goals per game, the most in the league. They opened 2-0 in each of their last two wins, over Detroit and Chicago. Minnesota usually shuts that door, allowing 0.67 first-period goals per game (5th), but those numbers came mostly with Wallstedt in net and the Wild fully rested.
Both teams drive play. Tampa Bay's shot share, its share of all shots on goal in its games, is 55.0% (3rd), and Minnesota's is 54.5% (4th). The difference is in net. Minnesota's team save percentage ranks 2nd, and Tampa Bay's ranks 24th at 87.9%. That weakness is a big reason the Lightning are only 2-3-2 away from home after an 8-0-0 run at Amalie Arena.
Kaprizov and the power play
Kirill Kaprizov has 16 goals and 30 points in 18 games and is converting 28.1% of his shots. Quinn Hughes logs 28.0 minutes a night and has 25 points. Together they power a Minnesota power play (power-play goals per opportunity) that converts 26.2%, 8th in the league. It faces a Tampa Bay penalty kill ranked 16th at 77.5%.
The Lightning's own power play ranks 26th. That leaves Nikita Kucherov (20 points, 16 of them assists) and Brandon Hagel (a team-high 62 shots) to do most of their damage at even strength. Tampa Bay is shorthanded fewer times per game than all but three teams, so Minnesota may not get many chances to use its edge.
A thin Wild blue line
Minnesota will play without Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon, both ruled out for the weekend and targeting a Nov. 10 return. Filip Gustavsson remains on injured reserve after hip surgery. As of Friday, Nick and Marcus Foligno might be available to return. Michael McCarron left Friday's game and is questionable.
Tampa Bay remains without Yanni Gourde. As of Nov. 4 he was not expected back until sometime on the four-game road trip this game opens. The Lightning last played Thursday against Chicago, and the packet lists them with two days of rest. Tampa Bay won 3-2 in Tampa on Oct. 8 and can sweep the two-game season series tonight.
What the market says
Books have made the road team the favorite: Tampa Bay is -140 and Minnesota +116. The puck line and the 6.5 total have not moved since our feed first saw the game. That total sits high for Minnesota, whose games are 6-12 on the over/under. Tampa Bay's are 8-7.
- Whether Pickard settles in during a Lightning first period built to bury him.
- Minnesota's power play against a middling Tampa Bay kill.
- Any late word on the Folignos or McCarron.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild line movement and odds
| Book | Lightning ML | Wild ML | Lightning spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -140 | +118 | -1.5 (+170) | o6.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | -142 | +120 | -1.5 (+170) | o6.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | -135 | +115 | -1.5 (+180) | o6.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -140 | +115 | -1.5 (+170) | o6.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | -134 | +112 | -1.5 (+172) | o6.5 (-118) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -140 | +110 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -137 | +116 | -1.5 (+170) | o6.5 (-120) |
Where the money is on Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning: 22% of bets, 73% of the money; Minnesota Wild: 78% of bets, 27% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5: 35% of bets, 21% of the money; Minnesota Wild +1.5: 65% of bets, 79% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 85% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 6.5: 15% of bets, 20% of the money.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild stats (this season)
| Stat | Tampa Bay Lightning | Minnesota Wild |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-3-2 | 12-3-3 |
| Goals per game | 3.73 (5th of 32) | 3.33 (13th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.00 (11th of 32) | 2.17 (1st of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.73 (6th of 32) | 1.17 (3rd of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 30.2 (4th of 32) | 30.1 (5th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 24.7 (4th of 32) | 25.2 (6th of 32) |
| Shot share | 55.0% (3rd of 32) | 54.5% (4th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 12.4% (10th of 32) | 11.1% (19th of 32) |
| Team save % | 87.9% (24th of 32) | 91.4% (2nd of 32) |
| Power play % | 17.3% (26th of 32) | 26.2% (8th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 77.5% (16th of 32) | 81.5% (11th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 49.0% (21st of 32) | 49.0% (20th of 32) |
Key players
- Kirill Kaprizov (Minnesota Wild): Leads Minnesota with 16 goals and 30 points in 18 games this season.
- Quinn Hughes (Minnesota Wild): Has 25 points this season while playing 28.0 minutes a night.
- Calvin Pickard (Minnesota Wild): Owns an .833 save percentage across two starts this season.
- Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning): Has 20 points this season, 16 of them assists, in 15 games.
- Brandon Hagel (Tampa Bay Lightning): Leads the Lightning with 62 shots and has 8 goals this season.
- Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning): Carries an .886 save percentage and 2.75 goals-against average this season.
Numbers that matter
| Pickard save % | 83.3% | The probable Wild starter's mark over two games, far below Wallstedt's 92.2%. |
|---|---|---|
| Lightning 1st-period goals | 1.33 | Most in the NHL, a direct test for a backup on short rest. |
| Wild power play | 26.2% | Ranks 8th and faces a Tampa Bay penalty kill ranked 16th. |
| Wild over/under | 6-12 | Minnesota games have mostly stayed under, and tonight's total is 6.5. |
| Tampa Bay moneyline | -140 | A road favorite despite a 2-3-2 record away from home. |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild: quick answers
What is the over/under for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Where is Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild played?
Grand Casino Arena, Saint Paul.
Has the line moved for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild?
No: Tampa Bay Lightning has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning: 22% of bets, 73% of the money; Minnesota Wild: 78% of bets, 27% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5: 35% of bets, 21% of the money; Minnesota Wild +1.5: 65% of bets, 79% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 85% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 6.5: 15% of bets, 20% of the money.