New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders prediction: Devils' shot machine runs into Sorokin and a six-game Islanders streak
New Jersey outshoots nearly everyone, but the Islanders have won six straight in this series, and the Devils' goalie for Saturday is still unknown.
| Line | New Jersey Devils -145 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Expect New Jersey to control the puck while the Islanders lean on Ilya Sorokin and their penalty kill to keep it a one-goal game.
- The goalie matchup: Sorokin (.911) against an unconfirmed Devils starter, with Hellebuyck and Allen likely splitting this game and Sunday's against Toronto.
- New Jersey is the -150 moneyline favorite, and the total has climbed from 5.5 to 6.0; the Devils have gone over in 10 of 16.
The Devils own the puck
New Jersey spends most nights in the other team's end. The Devils average 32.9 shots on goal per game, 2nd in the league, and take 56.9% of all shots in their games. That figure is shot share, a team's slice of every shot taken in its games. The Islanders average 25.7 shots per game, which puts them near the bottom of the league.
The catch for New Jersey is finishing. The Devils score on 10.6% of their shots, 25th of 32, so the volume hasn't fully turned into goals. Jack Hughes is the exception, with 21 points in 16 games. He anchors a line with Arseny Gritsyuk and Jesper Bratt that projected as the second unit Thursday, behind Timo Meier, Nico Hischier and Luke Evangelista.
Sorokin and the streak
This series has belonged to the Islanders. They have won six straight against New Jersey, including a 6-0 rout at UBS Arena on October 3.
Sorokin is the reason the Islanders can survive being outshot. He carries a .911 save percentage and a 2.41 goals-against average this season. He is the probable starter, coming back in after Semyon Varlamov made 34 saves in Thursday's loss to Carolina. The coach hasn't confirmed it.
New Jersey's crease is murkier. The Devils play the first half of a back-to-back, with Toronto waiting Sunday. Connor Hellebuyck is likely to split those two games with Jake Allen, and no starter has been named for Saturday. Hellebuyck has an 89.1% save percentage in four games for the Devils, and Allen sits at 88.6%. That is a small sample, but neither number gives New Jersey much cover if the shots don't turn into goals. This would be Hellebuyck's first look at the Islanders as a Devil.
Penalties tilt the ice
The Islanders take too many penalties. They are shorthanded 3.47 times per game, 25th in the league, which hands extra power plays to a Devils unit converting 18.0% of its chances.
New Jersey's weak spot is its penalty kill, which stops just 67.6% of opponents' power plays, 29th of 32. The Devils hide it by staying out of the box: they are shorthanded only 2.31 times a game, the fewest in the league. Even when they do take penalties, the Islanders' power play converts just 14.6%.
The Islanders' own kill is a strength at 86.5%, 5th in the league. That gives them a real chance to blunt the Devils' advantage on special teams.
An Islanders lineup in flux
The Islanders are thin. Ryan Pulock (upper body) is out after the team said on November 1 that he would miss two to four weeks. Matias Maccelli, Calum Ritchie and Alexander Romanov are on injured reserve. Mathew Barzal (knee) practiced Wednesday in a no-contact jersey, and as of the November 4 update he had no timetable to return.
Defenseman Matthew Kessel's status is unsettled. One report has him leaving Friday's practice after a puck to the face, while another has him skating on the third pair. Ben Hutton, signed Thursday, may make his Islanders debut.
The Islanders lean on Matthew Schaefer, who logs 27.0 minutes a night, and Bo Horvat, who has 14 points. Horvat skated Friday with Emil Heineman and Kyle Palmieri. For New Jersey, Seamus Casey (knee) is out. Anthony Mantha is listed as day-to-day, with no newer update.
What the market says
New Jersey is a -150 favorite, with the Islanders at +130. The total has risen from 5.5 when our feed first saw the game to 6.0, a move toward scoring.
The Devils' recent games support that move. They have gone over in 10 of 16 games this season, including all five of their latest. The Islanders are closer to even at 7-8 on overs. The most recent meeting was a 6-0 shutout by the Islanders, though, so the total depends heavily on who starts in the Devils' net.
New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders line movement and odds
| Book | Devils ML | Islanders ML | Devils spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -145 | +120 | -1.5 (+165) | o6 (-110) |
| DraftKings | -148 | +124 | -1.5 (+164) | o5.5 (-135) |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (+115) |
| Fanatics | -145 | +120 | -1.5 (+165) | o5.5 (-135) |
| FanDuel | -144 | +120 | -1.5 (+160) | o5.5 (-140) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -150 | +115 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Caesars | -150 | +120 | -1.5 (+155) | o5.5 (-139) |
Where the money is on New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Jersey Devils: 70% of bets, 48% of the money; New York Islanders: 30% of bets, 53% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New Jersey Devils -1.5: 62% of bets, 47% of the money; New York Islanders +1.5: 38% of bets, 53% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 35% of bets, 26% of the money; Under 6.5: 66% of bets, 74% of the money.
New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders stats (this season)
| Stat | New Jersey Devils | New York Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-5-0 | 7-6-2 |
| Goals per game | 3.50 (10th of 32) | 2.80 (24th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 2.94 (9th of 32) | 2.87 (7th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.56 (7th of 32) | -0.07 (19th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 32.9 (2nd of 32) | 25.7 (25th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 24.9 (5th of 32) | 26.9 (13th of 32) |
| Shot share | 56.9% (2nd of 32) | 48.8% (21st of 32) |
| Shooting % | 10.6% (25th of 32) | 10.9% (21st of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.2% (19th of 32) | 89.4% (7th of 32) |
| Power play % | 18.0% (22nd of 32) | 14.6% (29th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 67.6% (29th of 32) | 86.5% (5th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 50.3% (15th of 32) | 55.6% (2nd of 32) |
Key players
- Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils): Leads the Devils with 21 points in 16 games this season.
- Arseny Gritsyuk (New Jersey Devils): Has eight goals on a 21.1% shooting rate this season.
- Connor Hellebuyck (New Jersey Devils): Holds an 89.1% save percentage over four games with New Jersey this season.
- Jake Allen (New Jersey Devils): Has an 88.6% save percentage in eight games this season and is likely to start one half of the back-to-back.
- Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders): Carries a .911 save percentage and a 2.41 goals-against average this season.
- Matthew Schaefer (New York Islanders): Leads the Islanders with 15 points while averaging 27.0 minutes a night this season.
- Bo Horvat (New York Islanders): Has seven goals and 14 points this season.
Numbers that matter
| Devils shot share | 56.9% | Second in the league, against an Islanders team that averages 25.7 shots per game. |
|---|---|---|
| Sorokin save percentage | 91.1% | The probable starter is the Islanders' best answer to New Jersey's shot volume. |
| Islanders times shorthanded per game | 3.47 | Ranks 25th and gives the Devils' 22nd-ranked power play extra chances. |
| Devils penalty kill | 67.6% | Ranks 29th, though New Jersey is shorthanded less often than any other team. |
| Total | 6.0 | Up from 5.5 when our feed first saw the game; the Devils have gone over in 10 of 16. |
New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders: quick answers
What is the over/under for New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders?
The total is 6 goals.
When is New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders played?
UBS Arena, Elmont.
Has the line moved for New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders?
No: New Jersey Devils has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 5.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders?
On the Kalshi moneyline: New Jersey Devils: 70% of bets, 48% of the money; New York Islanders: 30% of bets, 53% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New Jersey Devils -1.5: 62% of bets, 47% of the money; New York Islanders +1.5: 38% of bets, 53% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 35% of bets, 26% of the money; Under 6.5: 66% of bets, 74% of the money.