San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars prediction: Sharks limp into Dallas on a back-to-back against the stingy Stars
San Jose's slumping offense gets a tired-legs date with one of the NHL's hardest teams to score on, and Dallas may be without Miro Heiskanen.
| Line | Dallas Stars -300 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Expect Dallas to control play: the Stars allow 22.9 shots per game, 2nd in the NHL, and San Jose is on a back-to-back.
- Watch San Jose's power play against a Dallas penalty kill that has killed 90.4% of chances, 2nd in the league.
- Dallas is a -298 favorite. Stars games have gone under 12 times this season, against a total parked at 6.5.
Tired legs, a stingy wall
San Jose arrives in Dallas having lost four straight, one night after a 4-1 loss in Minnesota. Waiting is a Stars team that allows 2.25 goals per game, 2nd of 32. The question is whether a Sharks offense already near the bottom of the league can find anything against that structure on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Sharks score 2.44 goals per game, 30th in the NHL. Their shooting percentage (goals per shot) is 9.0, 31st. Dallas gives up just 22.9 shots a night, which ranks 2nd, so San Jose's chances to shoot its way out of a slump will be scarce.
The slide has been ugly. Recent losses came by scores of 1-5 against Ottawa and 2-7 at Los Angeles, and players held a meeting after the Kings game. General manager Mike Grier is not considering a coaching change. The first meeting this season, on Oct. 5 in Dallas, ended 5-0 Stars.
Who stands in each net
San Jose's goaltending is unsettled. Yaroslav Askarov started Friday in Minnesota and stopped 25 of 29 shots. Alex Nedeljkovic is listed as the probable starter for Saturday, though the team has not announced anything.
Nedeljkovic has a save percentage of 89.9% and a 3.09 goals-against average across six appearances. That's a small sample, but it hasn't been a stretch where either Sharks goalie has stolen games.
Jake Oettinger is the probable starter for Dallas, also unconfirmed. His 1.91 goals-against average anchors a team save percentage that ranks 3rd. Dallas had Friday off, so there's no rest reason to turn to Casey DeSmith.
The special teams tilt
San Jose's best path to goals runs through the power play. The Sharks draw 3.56 power plays per game, 7th in the league, and convert 21.9% of them (power play % is goals per opportunity).
The problem is the opponent. Dallas kills 90.4% of penalties, 2nd in the NHL. The Stars rarely get chances of their own, drawing 2.19 power plays per game, last in the league. That keeps their 10th-ranked power play from tilting games, but San Jose sits 27th in times shorthanded and could hand them extra looks.
Dallas without its top defenseman
Miro Heiskanen is listed as out with an upper-body injury after taking a hit into the boards Tuesday in Washington, with an expected return of Nov. 12. Coach Glen Gulutzan said Friday, "if he's ready tomorrow, we would use him, but I think that's doubtful." Losing a defenseman who logs 24.9 minutes a night tests the league's 2nd-best defense. Sam Steel missed Thursday for personal reasons and is listed day-to-day, and Matt Duchene remains out after core surgery.
The Stars' offense leans on two wingers. Mikko Rantanen has nine goals on 30 shots, and Jason Robertson has 18 points. Dallas also leads the league in faceoffs at 56.6%, which helps it start with the puck. For San Jose, Alexander Wennberg has missed eight games and was called week-to-week Friday.
What the market says
Dallas is -298 on the moneyline, with San Jose at +240. The Stars are -1.5 on the puck line, and neither that nor the 6.5 total has moved since our feed first saw the game Friday.
The puck line has punished San Jose, which has covered just six times in 18 games. Dallas is 7-9 against it. The total stands out most: Stars games have gone under 12 times in 16, and their five most recent closing totals were all 5.5.
San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars line movement and odds
| Book | Sharks ML | Stars ML | Sharks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +240 | -300 | +1.5 (+100) | o6 (-118) |
| DraftKings | +235 | -290 | +1.5 (-102) | o6.5 (+114) |
| ESPN BET | +260 | -320 | +1.5 (-105) | o6.5 (+115) |
| Fanatics | +240 | -300 | +1.5 (+100) | o6.5 (+110) |
| FanDuel | +245 | -310 | +1.5 (+100) | o6.5 (+108) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +240 | -350 | +1.5 (+100) | o5.5 (-145) |
| Caesars | +245 | -300 | +1.5 (+100) | o6 (-121) |
Where the money is on San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars
On the Kalshi moneyline: San Jose Sharks: 44% of bets, 18% of the money; Dallas Stars: 56% of bets, 83% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Dallas Stars -1.5: 83% of bets, 94% of the money; San Jose Sharks +1.5: 17% of bets, 7% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 44% of bets, 81% of the money; Under 6.5: 56% of bets, 19% of the money.
San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars stats (this season)
| Stat | San Jose Sharks | Dallas Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-10-1 | 9-5-2 |
| Goals per game | 2.44 (30th of 32) | 2.75 (26th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.56 (28th of 32) | 2.25 (2nd of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | -1.11 (29th of 32) | 0.50 (9th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 27.2 (18th of 32) | 25.6 (26th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 30.1 (29th of 32) | 22.9 (2nd of 32) |
| Shot share | 47.5% (27th of 32) | 52.7% (10th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 9.0% (31st of 32) | 10.8% (24th of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.2% (20th of 32) | 90.2% (4th of 32) |
| Power play % | 21.9% (15th of 32) | 22.9% (10th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 79.4% (13th of 32) | 90.4% (2nd of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 48.4% (25th of 32) | 56.6% (1st of 32) |
Key players
- Macklin Celebrini (San Jose Sharks): Celebrini has 18 points in 16 games this season and scored San Jose's only goal Friday in Minnesota.
- Alex Nedeljkovic (San Jose Sharks): Nedeljkovic carries an 89.9% save percentage over six games this season and is the listed probable starter, unconfirmed.
- Will Smith (San Jose Sharks): Smith has six goals this season but a -11 rating on a team that has been outscored badly.
- Mikko Rantanen (Dallas Stars): Rantanen leads Dallas with 19 points and is shooting 30.0% this season.
- Jason Robertson (Dallas Stars): Robertson has eight goals on a team-high 52 shots this season.
- Jake Oettinger (Dallas Stars): Oettinger owns a 1.91 goals-against average in 12 games this season and is the probable starter, not yet confirmed.
Numbers that matter
| Sharks shooting % | 9.0 | San Jose ranks 31st in finishing, a bad fit against a defense this tight. |
|---|---|---|
| Stars shots allowed per game | 22.9 | Dallas ranks 2nd, limiting how many chances a slumping Sharks attack will get. |
| Stars penalty kill | 90.4% | Second in the league, it blunts San Jose's habit of drawing power plays. |
| Stars over/under record | 4-12 | Dallas games have leaned heavily under, yet this total sits at 6.5. |
| Dallas moneyline | -298 | The market prices Dallas as a heavy home favorite against a tired, slumping opponent. |
San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars: quick answers
What is the over/under for San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars?
The total is 6 goals.
When is San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Where is San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars played?
American Airlines Center, Dallas.
Has the line moved for San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars?
No: San Jose Sharks has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars?
On the Kalshi moneyline: San Jose Sharks: 44% of bets, 18% of the money; Dallas Stars: 56% of bets, 83% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Dallas Stars -1.5: 83% of bets, 94% of the money; San Jose Sharks +1.5: 17% of bets, 7% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 44% of bets, 81% of the money; Under 6.5: 56% of bets, 19% of the money.