Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: Canadiens' penalty habit opens the door for the Maple Leafs' power play

Penalties could tilt the rivalry

Montreal arrives in Toronto as the moneyline favorite and has won the last four meetings, since the Maple Leafs beat them in October 2025. The Canadiens own the better record and the momentum. The clearest edge in this game, though, belongs to the home team, and it shows up on special teams.

Montreal goes shorthanded 4.06 times per game, 31st of 32. That is a dangerous habit against a Toronto power play converting 28.8% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 6th in the league.

The gap holds the other way too. The Canadiens' power play ranks 30th at 14.0%. Toronto's penalty kill, the share of opponent power plays it survives without allowing a goal, ranks 4th at 88.1%. Every trip to the box tilts this game toward the Leafs, and Montreal needs to win the even-strength minutes to make up the difference.

Two creases, no confirmed starters

Neither team has named a starter. Jacob Fowler is listed as Montreal's probable starter, and he has been the stronger of the Canadiens' options by a wide margin: a .925 save percentage this season against .847 for Jakub Dobes. Dobes started Thursday's overtime win over Utah, which makes a Fowler start plausible, but nothing is settled. Sam Montembeault was moved to day-to-day on October 31, and his status since then is unclear.

Toronto's decision is tangled up with the schedule. The Leafs host New Jersey on Sunday, and Jim Hiller kept his weekend plan to himself on Friday while both goalies practiced. Sergei Bobrovsky is the probable starter after making 33 saves in Tuesday's loss to Utah. His .889 save percentage trails Anthony Stolarz's .910, though. Earlier this season Stolarz took a Saturday start in Edmonton after Bobrovsky played Thursday, so a split is possible. A Fowler-Bobrovsky matchup favors Montreal in net. A Dobes start would erase that edge.

Scorers and a Tavares return

Auston Matthews drives Toronto with 26 points, and William Nylander gives the Leafs a second high-end scorer. Montreal counters with Cole Caufield's team-high 11 goals and Lane Hutson, the defenseman running the offense from the back end.

Nick Suzuki may matter most. He has 15 points in only 10 games and returned Thursday after an upper-body injury. With him back, Montreal's top six looks whole again.

John Tavares, out since October 15, is likely to return Saturday as a winger. Hiller said it "looks like" he plays. Kirill Marchenko stays on injured reserve until at least November 17. Montreal is still without Ivan Demidov, whose estimated return is November 14, and defenseman Mike Matheson, who was ruled out for two weeks on October 31.

A short price and a high total

Montreal is -120 on the moneyline and Toronto sits at +100, with the Leafs getting 1.5 goals on the puck line and the total set at 6.5. The puck line and total are the same as when our feed first recorded them Friday.

The Canadiens' games have run high, going 11-5 to the over. They also start fast, averaging 1.31 first-period goals per game, 2nd in the league. Montreal had Friday practice canceled and flew in that day, while Toronto has had a longer layoff. An early Montreal goal would test whether the rested Leafs can push back before their Sunday game.