Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche prediction: Detroit's goalie question collides with Colorado's second-ranked Avalanche offense
Daniil Tarasov's hot hand or a returning John Gibson will decide whether the Red Wings can slow MacKinnon, Lehkonen and an attack scoring at will in Denver.
| Line | Colorado Avalanche -225 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Colorado should control the scoring. Detroit wins shot volume but finishes poorly, so the Red Wings need elite goaltending to stay close.
- Watch Detroit's crease: Tarasov's 93.0% save percentage against Gibson's 86.0%, with neither confirmed as the starter.
- Colorado is -225 with a 6.5 total. The Avalanche have gone over in 12 of 17 games.
Who stands in Detroit's net
The Red Wings open a four-game road trip against one of the league's most dangerous attacks, and they don't know who will face it. John Gibson left a Nov 3 game with a lower-body injury and sat out Thursday. He is listed as day-to-day and took part in Friday's practice. One projection still has him as the probable starter, while other starting-goalie listings point to Daniil Tarasov. Detroit hasn't confirmed either.
The gap between them is large. Tarasov carries a 93.0% save percentage and a 1.79 goals-against average this season. Gibson sits at 86.0% with a 3.46 GAA. Tarasov made 32 saves Thursday in a 2-1 loss to Vegas that turned on a goal with 1:42 left in regulation. Coach Todd McLellan said afterward that Tarasov is in line for more playing time.
Colorado's Mackenzie Blackwood is the projected starter but is not confirmed. He has an 89.3% save percentage and a 2.81 GAA, and he made 22 saves in Thursday's overtime loss to Nashville.
Shots versus finishing
Detroit's underlying play is better than its 7-7-3 record. The Red Wings own a 53.4% shot share, meaning their share of all shots on goal in their games, and that ranks 7th of 32. The problem is converting. They shoot 9.5%, 28th in the league, and score just 2.76 goals per game, 25th.
Colorado turns its looks into goals. The Avalanche score 4.0 goals per game, 2nd in the NHL, on a 13.1% shooting rate that ranks 6th. Nathan MacKinnon leads the way with 27 points while centering Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas. Lehkonen has 12 goals on a 33.3% shooting rate. That pace is unlikely to hold over a full season, but it keeps arriving.
The Avalanche can be had in their own end. They allow 3.24 goals per game, which ranks 18th, and defenseman Josh Manson is out about eight weeks with an ankle injury. Detroit's volume could test that if it ever finishes.
A penalty kill under strain
Special teams favor Detroit at one end and hurt it at the other. The Red Wings' power play, measured as goals per opportunity, converts at 22.8%, 11th in the league, against a Colorado penalty kill ranked 17th.
The weak spot is Detroit's own kill. It stops only 71.7% of opponents' power plays, 25th of 32. Colorado's power play ranks 19th at 20.0%, so it isn't a juggernaut. Still, every Red Wings penalty hands MacKinnon and Cale Makar a chance against a struggling unit. Detroit's physical style, 5th in hits per game, is worth watching for that reason.
Bodies missing on both benches
Detroit's absences go beyond the crease. Dylan Larkin is listed out until at least Nov 14 because of a suspension. Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are on injured reserve, and McLellan expects both back at some point on this trip, though neither is confirmed for Saturday. Defenseman Albert Johansson is traveling with the team but remains on injured reserve.
Colorado gets Nic Roy and Logan O'Connor back. Zach L'Heureux remains on long-term injured reserve and is not expected to play. Neither team is on a back-to-back.
What the market says
Colorado is a -225 home favorite, with Detroit at +186, and the total sits at 6.5. Neither line has moved since our feed first saw the game. The Avalanche are 6-1-2 at home and 10-7 on the puck line. Their recent run is mixed: three straight wins, then a 7-2 loss in Columbus and Thursday's overtime loss.
Last season's two meetings split, with a 5-0 Colorado win in Detroit and a 2-0 Red Wings win in Denver two days later.
- Detroit's starter: Tarasov's form changes the matchup.
- Avalanche power play: It faces the 25th-ranked kill.
- Detroit's finishing: Its shot volume has to become goals.
Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche line movement and odds
| Book | Wings ML | Avalanche ML | Wings spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +185 | -225 | +1.5 (-130) | o6.5 (-105) |
| DraftKings | +185 | -225 | +1.5 (-135) | o6.5 (-102) |
| ESPN BET | +175 | -210 | +1.5 (-150) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +185 | -225 | +1.5 (-135) | o6.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | +188 | -230 | +1.5 (-138) | o6.5 (-106) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +165 | -220 | +1.5 (-145) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | +180 | -240 | +1.5 (-135) | o6.5 (-105) |
Where the money is on Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche
On the Kalshi moneyline: Detroit Red Wings: 27% of bets, 8% of the money; Colorado Avalanche: 73% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado Avalanche -1.5: 85% of bets, 76% of the money; Detroit Red Wings +1.5: 15% of bets, 24% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 79% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 6.5: 21% of bets, 2% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Detroit Red Wings (7 wallets, $29,597) vs Colorado Avalanche (3 wallets, $4,699). Largest: Growing-Comestible $22,844 on Detroit Red Wings, Forked-Puffin $5,875 on Detroit Red Wings, Tattered-Screamer $4,430 on Colorado Avalanche. Spread: Detroit Red Wings (2 wallets, $47,794). Largest: Growing-Comestible $47,745 on Detroit Red Wings, Some-Male $48 on Detroit Red Wings. Total: over (2 wallets, $357) vs under (1 wallet, $659). Largest: Growing-Comestible $659 on under, NordhavenCap $308 on over, Meaty-Semicolon $49 on over.
Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche stats (this season)
| Stat | Detroit Red Wings | Colorado Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-7-3 | 9-6-2 |
| Goals per game | 2.76 (25th of 32) | 4.00 (2nd of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 2.94 (10th of 32) | 3.24 (18th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | -0.18 (21st of 32) | 0.76 (5th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 29.0 (7th of 32) | 30.5 (3rd of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 25.3 (7th of 32) | 27.2 (16th of 32) |
| Shot share | 53.4% (7th of 32) | 52.8% (9th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 9.5% (28th of 32) | 13.1% (6th of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.4% (17th of 32) | 88.1% (22nd of 32) |
| Power play % | 22.8% (11th of 32) | 20.0% (18th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 71.7% (25th of 32) | 76.9% (17th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 49.3% (18th of 32) | 48.6% (23rd of 32) |
Key players
- Daniil Tarasov (Detroit Red Wings): Tarasov has a 93.0% save percentage and a 1.79 GAA in seven games this season.
- John Gibson (Detroit Red Wings): Gibson is day-to-day with a lower-body injury after posting an 86.0% save percentage this season.
- Alex DeBrincat (Detroit Red Wings): DeBrincat leads Detroit with 64 shots and has 16 points this season.
- Lucas Raymond (Detroit Red Wings): Raymond shares the team lead with 16 points, 10 of them assists, this season.
- Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche): MacKinnon has 27 points in 17 games this season, including 18 assists.
- Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): Lehkonen has scored 12 goals on 36 shots this season.
- Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche): Makar has 18 points in 16 games this season.
- Mackenzie Blackwood (Colorado Avalanche): Blackwood, the probable starter, has an 89.3% save percentage and a 2.81 GAA this season.
Numbers that matter
| Tarasov save % | 93.0% | Detroit's best hope of containing Colorado if he gets the start over Gibson. |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado goals per game | 4.0 | This ranks 2nd of 32 and comes from elite finishing. |
| Detroit penalty kill | 71.7% | It ranks 25th, a weak spot against MacKinnon and Makar. |
| Colorado moneyline | -225 | Colorado is a clear home favorite, and the line hasn't moved from our first look. |
| Colorado overs | 12 | The Avalanche have gone over in 12 of 17 games against a 6.5 total tonight. |
Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche: quick answers
What is the over/under for Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 9:10 PM ET.
Where is Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche played?
Ball Arena, Denver.
Has the line moved for Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche?
No: Detroit Red Wings has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Detroit Red Wings: 27% of bets, 8% of the money; Colorado Avalanche: 73% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado Avalanche -1.5: 85% of bets, 76% of the money; Detroit Red Wings +1.5: 15% of bets, 24% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 79% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 6.5: 21% of bets, 2% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Detroit Red Wings (7 wallets, $29,597) vs Colorado Avalanche (3 wallets, $4,699). Largest: Growing-Comestible $22,844 on Detroit Red Wings, Forked-Puffin $5,875 on Detroit Red Wings, Tattered-Screamer $4,430 on Colorado Avalanche. Spread: Detroit Red Wings (2 wallets, $47,794). Largest: Growing-Comestible $47,745 on Detroit Red Wings, Some-Male $48 on Detroit Red Wings. Total: over (2 wallets, $357) vs under (1 wallet, $659). Largest: Growing-Comestible $659 on under, NordhavenCap $308 on over, Meaty-Semicolon $49 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.