Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators prediction: Utah's top-ranked power play tests a short-handed Senators team without Ullmark
Ottawa takes penalties at one of the league's highest rates, and with Linus Ullmark expected to sit, the Senators can't afford to keep handing Utah's power play chances.
| Line | Utah Mammoth -120 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- A high-event game is likely: two shaky starting goalies, a market total that climbed, and special teams that should create plenty of chances.
- Utah's power play, first of 32 at 38.3%, against an Ottawa team that ranks 29th in times shorthanded per game.
- Utah is a slight -115 road favorite and the total rose to 6.5, though the Mammoth are just 5-12 on the puck line.
The penalty box decides it
These teams arrive with identical 10-6-1 records, and the clearest gap between them shows up when someone is in the box. Utah's power play converts 38.3% of its chances, meaning power-play goals per opportunity. That is first of 32. Ottawa's penalty kill stops 74.2% of opponents' chances, which ranks 22nd.
The Senators make the problem worse by giving the Mammoth repeated looks. Ottawa is shorthanded 3.65 times per game, 29th in the league, and its penalty minutes per game rank 30th. Discipline is the first thing Travis Green's group has to fix in this game.
The other side of the ledger leans toward Ottawa on volume but not on finish. The Senators draw 3.94 power plays per game, second in the league, and Utah's kill ranks 26th at 70.9%. Yet Ottawa's own power play sits at 11.9%, 31st. The Senators should get chances. They have not been converting them.
Ersson steps in for Ullmark
Ottawa's best player this season is expected to watch. Linus Ullmark is on injured reserve with a lower-body strain and is not expected back. His numbers show what the Senators lose: a .945 save percentage and a 1.33 goals-against average in eight games. He practiced fully Friday, and Green said "he looked good today, so we'll see where he's at." Ullmark himself signaled he was unlikely to play, so his status remains slightly unsettled.
Samuel Ersson is the probable starter after winning Wednesday's 2-1 game in Buffalo. His season line is far less comforting: an 88.0% save percentage and a 3.33 goals-against average.
Utah's goaltending has been worse. Karel Vejmelka is ESPN's probable starter, but the team had not confirmed it. He carries an 87.1% save percentage. The Mammoth's team save percentage of 86.3% ranks 30th, and it explains why a club eighth in scoring still sits 24th in goals allowed.
Cooley's finishing run
Logan Cooley arrives after a hat trick Thursday in Montreal, a game Utah still lost 5-4 in overtime. He has 11 goals, and his shooting percentage of 37.9% is unsustainably high over any long stretch. Clayton Keller is the setup man, with 18 of his 22 points coming on assists.
Utah also controls the puck. The Mammoth own 53.9% of the shots in their games, sixth in the league, while Ottawa sits 18th at 48.9%. Utah's 26.8 hits per game, second-most in the league, adds a physical edge.
Ottawa leans on Tim Stutzle, who matches Keller with 22 points. Drake Batherson has nine goals. Both are finishing at 23.1%, a rate that is also likely to cool.
An Ottawa lineup stretched thin
Ridly Greig is listed as out for Saturday after Green called him doubtful on Friday. Warren Foegele, Andre Burakovsky and William Eklund are all on injured reserve, and Tyler Kleven's status after an illness had not been confirmed as of Friday.
The Senators haven't won consecutive games in 11 games. Wednesday's win in Buffalo gives them that chance at home, where they are 5-2-0.
Utah has its own blue-line concerns. Nate Schmidt left Thursday's game in Montreal and is day-to-day, as is Kailer Yamamoto. John Marino remains on injured reserve.
What the market shows
Utah is a -115 road favorite and Ottawa sits at -105. That makes the game close to even, though the puck line has shifted toward the Mammoth since our feed first listed it. The total rose from 6.25 to 6.5.
The recent trends pull in two directions. Utah's games have gone over 11 times in 17, while Ottawa's have stayed under 10 times. Utah was the favorite in each of its last five games and failed to cover the puck line in all five.
- Whether Ullmark dresses, even as Ersson's backup
- Ottawa's penalty count in the first two periods
- Cooley's line against Stutzle's
Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators line movement and odds
| Book | Mammoth ML | Senators ML | Mammoth spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+200) | o6.5 (-118) |
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+205) | o6.5 (-118) |
| ESPN BET | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+210) | o6.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+190) | o6.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+198) | o6.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -125 | -105 | -1.5 (+200) | o6.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -120 | +101 | -1.5 (+193) | o6.5 (-127) |
Where the money is on Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators
On the Kalshi moneyline: Utah Mammoth: 58% of bets, 84% of the money; Ottawa Senators: 42% of bets, 16% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah Mammoth -1.5: 63% of bets, 49% of the money; Ottawa Senators +1.5: 37% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 86% of bets, 77% of the money; Under 6.5: 14% of bets, 24% of the money.
Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators stats (this season)
| Stat | Utah Mammoth | Ottawa Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-6-1 | 10-6-1 |
| Goals per game | 3.59 (8th of 32) | 3.06 (19th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.47 (24th of 32) | 3.06 (14th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.12 (15th of 32) | 0.00 (17th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 29.6 (6th of 32) | 25.9 (22nd of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 25.4 (8th of 32) | 27.0 (14th of 32) |
| Shot share | 53.9% (6th of 32) | 48.9% (18th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 12.1% (11th of 32) | 11.8% (12th of 32) |
| Team save % | 86.3% (30th of 32) | 88.7% (14th of 32) |
| Power play % | 38.3% (1st of 32) | 11.9% (31st of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 70.9% (26th of 32) | 74.2% (22nd of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 53.3% (6th of 32) | 53.6% (5th of 32) |
Key players
- Logan Cooley (Utah Mammoth): Leads Utah with 11 goals this season on a 37.9% shooting rate, including a hat trick Thursday.
- Clayton Keller (Utah Mammoth): Has 22 points this season, 18 of them assists, which makes him the engine of the top power play.
- Mikhail Sergachev (Utah Mammoth): Logs 24.0 minutes a night and has 20 points this season from the blue line.
- Karel Vejmelka (Utah Mammoth): His 87.1% save percentage this season is the weak spot behind Utah's strong shot numbers.
- Tim Stutzle (Ottawa Senators): Leads Ottawa with 22 points this season and plays 22.0 minutes per game.
- Drake Batherson (Ottawa Senators): Shares Ottawa's goal lead with nine this season, on 23.1% shooting.
- Samuel Ersson (Ottawa Senators): Expected to start in place of Ullmark, carrying an 88.0% save percentage and a 3.33 goals-against average this season.
Numbers that matter
| Utah power play | 38.3% | Best in the league, and it faces an Ottawa penalty kill ranked 22nd. |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa times shorthanded per game | 3.65 | Ranks 29th of 32, which hands chances to the league's top power play. |
| Utah team save % | 86.3% | Ranks 30th and offsets Utah's sixth-ranked shot share. |
| Ullmark save % | 94.5% | Ottawa's starter is expected to sit with a lower-body strain. |
| Total | 6.5 | Up from 6.25 when our feed first listed the game, and Utah's games have gone over 11 times in 17. |
Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators: quick answers
What is the over/under for Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators played?
Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa.
Has the line moved for Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators?
Yes: Utah Mammoth opened +1.5 and is now -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Utah Mammoth vs Ottawa Senators?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Utah Mammoth: 58% of bets, 84% of the money; Ottawa Senators: 42% of bets, 16% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah Mammoth -1.5: 63% of bets, 49% of the money; Ottawa Senators +1.5: 37% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 86% of bets, 77% of the money; Under 6.5: 14% of bets, 24% of the money.