Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings prediction: Penguins' goaltending woes travel west to face a red-hot Adrian Kempe
Pittsburgh has stopped too few pucks all season, and Los Angeles has a fresh hat-trick scorer and the league's worst penalty kill to complicate the math.
| Line | Los Angeles Kings -120 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Pittsburgh's shaky crease and slow first periods favor a Kings team that scores early, though Los Angeles's penalty kill keeps the door open.
- Arturs Silovs (.876) against Panarin and Kempe; Pittsburgh's team save percentage ranks 29th of 32.
- The Kings are -129 with the total steady at 6.5; Penguins games have gone over 10 times in 16.
A crease that won't hold
Two teams sitting on 12 points apiece open the night chasing the same thing: a reason to believe. For Pittsburgh, the problem starts in net. The Penguins' team save percentage of 87.0% ranks 29th of 32, and they allow 3.56 goals per game, also 29th. They have won just once away from home, a 1-6-1 road record, and this game opens a three-game trip.
Arturs Silovs is the probable starter, carrying a .876 save percentage and a 3.26 goals-against average. Murashov has been no steadier. With a back-to-back in Anaheim on Sunday, Silovs likely gets this one.
The Kings' crease is unsettled. ESPN lists Anton Forsberg as the probable starter, while another listing has Darcy Kuemper as unconfirmed. Forsberg has been the better of the two, at .902 against Kuemper's .885, and Kuemper made 30 saves in Wednesday's win over San Jose. Watch warmups.
The worst kill in hockey
Here is the Kings' soft spot. Their penalty kill (the share of opponent power plays they survive without allowing a goal) sits at 63.0%, dead last in the league.
Pittsburgh is poorly built to exploit it. The Penguins' power play converts 17.8% of chances, 24th, and they draw just 2.81 power plays per game, 27th. A last-minute power-play goal by Tomas Hertl decided their Tuesday loss to Vegas, a reminder that special teams have cut both ways for them.
The Penguins do stay out of the box, ranking 2nd in times shorthanded per game. That limits how often the Kings' 22.0% power play, 13th, gets to work.
Early goals, early holes
First periods have buried Pittsburgh. The Penguins allow 1.31 first-period goals per game, 31st, and they trailed after one in four of their last five games, including a 1-3 hole against Boston on Thursday in a 6-2 loss. Los Angeles scores 1.14 first-period goals per game, 8th, and led 3-0 after twenty against the Sharks.
The Kings' scorers are rolling. Adrian Kempe returned from illness with three goals and an assist against San Jose. "He's played so well and I feel like he hasn't really been rewarded," coach Peter Laviolette said. Artemi Panarin leads the team with 17 points.
Pittsburgh's offense is closer to league average than its record suggests. Evgeni Malkin has six goals and played Thursday after missing the Vegas game with a lower-body injury. Erik Karlsson drives the attack from the blue line. "We've just got to be better," Sidney Crosby said. "We're not consistent enough through games."
Who is missing
Both lineups are thin. Pittsburgh is without Bryan Rust, out until at least early December, and Elmer Soderblom, downgraded to week-to-week. Ryan Graves remains on injured reserve. Projected lines have Crosby centering Tommy Novak and Rickard Rakell.
Los Angeles still lacks Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello, both week-to-week; as of Wednesday they were skating but not activated. Alex Turcotte was upgraded to day-to-day on Friday. Brandt Clarke shook off an upper-body scare and played Wednesday.
What the market says
The Kings are -129 on the moneyline, with Pittsburgh at +110. The puck line has Los Angeles at -1.5 and the total sits at 6.5, neither moving since our feed first saw the game Friday.
The trends split on the total. Penguins games are 10-6 to the over; Kings games are 8-6 to the under. Los Angeles has covered the puck line in 9 of 14 games. Last season the teams split two meetings, with Pittsburgh winning 4-2 in Los Angeles and the Kings winning 3-2 in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings line movement and odds
| Book | Penguins ML | Kings ML | Penguins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 | +1.5 (-250) | o6.5 (-105) |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 | +1.5 (-245) | o6.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 | +1.5 (-260) | o6.5 (+100) |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 | +1.5 (-255) | o6.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | +100 | -120 | +1.5 (-240) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -125 | +1.5 (-300) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | -102 | -120 | +1.5 (-240) | o6.5 (-111) |
Where the money is on Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pittsburgh Penguins: 31% of bets, 57% of the money; Los Angeles Kings: 69% of bets, 43% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Los Angeles Kings -1.5: 69% of bets, 93% of the money; Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5: 31% of bets, 7% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 62% of bets, 64% of the money; Under 6.5: 38% of bets, 37% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Pittsburgh Penguins (2 wallets, $32,144) vs Los Angeles Kings (8 wallets, $27,885). Largest: Growing-Comestible $30,324 on Pittsburgh Penguins, Forked-Puffin $11,105 on Los Angeles Kings, Tall-Taxicab-Reply $10,485 on Los Angeles Kings. Spread: Pittsburgh Penguins (1 wallet, $5,022). Largest: Growing-Comestible $5,022 on Pittsburgh Penguins. Total: over (1 wallet, $14). Largest: forecastication4 $14 on over.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings stats (this season)
| Stat | Pittsburgh Penguins | Los Angeles Kings |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-9-2 | 5-7-2 |
| Goals per game | 3.12 (16th of 32) | 3.07 (17th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.56 (29th of 32) | 3.36 (22nd of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | -0.44 (25th of 32) | -0.29 (24th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 27.4 (17th of 32) | 27.9 (12th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 27.4 (18th of 32) | 28.6 (22nd of 32) |
| Shot share | 50.1% (12th of 32) | 49.4% (14th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 11.4% (17th of 32) | 11.0% (20th of 32) |
| Team save % | 87.0% (29th of 32) | 88.2% (18th of 32) |
| Power play % | 17.8% (24th of 32) | 22.0% (14th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 82.5% (10th of 32) | 63.0% (32nd of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 45.2% (31st of 32) | 51.1% (11th of 32) |
Key players
- Arturs Silovs (Pittsburgh Penguins): His .876 save percentage and 3.26 goals-against average this season frame Pittsburgh's biggest problem.
- Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins): Leads the Penguins with 16 points, 13 of them assists, in 16 games this season.
- Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins): Has six goals on a 21.4% shooting rate this season and returned Thursday from a lower-body injury.
- Anton Forsberg (Los Angeles Kings): Owns a .902 save percentage and 2.51 goals-against average in six games this season, though Kuemper has also been listed.
- Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles Kings): Has 12 points in 13 games this season, capped by a hat trick against San Jose.
- Artemi Panarin (Los Angeles Kings): Leads the Kings with 17 points and eight goals on 45 shots this season.
Numbers that matter
| Penguins team save % | 87.0% | Ranks 29th of 32 and sits behind Pittsburgh's goals-allowed problems. |
|---|---|---|
| Kings penalty kill | 63.0% | Last in the league, though Pittsburgh draws few power plays. |
| Penguins first-period goals allowed | 1.31 | Ranks 31st, against a Kings team that scores early. |
| Penguins road record | 1-6-1 | This game opens a three-game road trip. |
| Kings moneyline | -129 | Los Angeles is a modest home favorite with the line steady since Friday. |
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings: quick answers
What is the over/under for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 9:10 PM ET.
Where is Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings played?
crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles.
Has the line moved for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings?
No: Pittsburgh Penguins has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pittsburgh Penguins: 31% of bets, 57% of the money; Los Angeles Kings: 69% of bets, 43% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Los Angeles Kings -1.5: 69% of bets, 93% of the money; Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5: 31% of bets, 7% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 62% of bets, 64% of the money; Under 6.5: 38% of bets, 37% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Pittsburgh Penguins (2 wallets, $32,144) vs Los Angeles Kings (8 wallets, $27,885). Largest: Growing-Comestible $30,324 on Pittsburgh Penguins, Forked-Puffin $11,105 on Los Angeles Kings, Tall-Taxicab-Reply $10,485 on Los Angeles Kings. Spread: Pittsburgh Penguins (1 wallet, $5,022). Largest: Growing-Comestible $5,022 on Pittsburgh Penguins. Total: over (1 wallet, $14). Largest: forecastication4 $14 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.