New York Rangers vs Seattle Kraken prediction: Rangers favored in Seattle despite a 1-5-1 road record

Why the road team is favored

The Rangers arrive in Seattle with a 1-5-1 road record, and the market still makes them the moneyline favorite at -130. That price says more about the Kraken than about New York's travel woes.

Seattle sits 9-5-1, but the underlying shape is shaky. The Kraken allow 30.4 shots per game, 30th of 32, and their shot share (their portion of all shots in their games) is 45.6%, 29th. They allow 3.53 goals per game, 27th. The Rangers have been far tighter, allowing 2.88 goals per game, 7th in the league.

This also opens a four-game Rangers road trip. They come in having won two straight at home, the last a 3-2 win over Philadelphia. Tye Kartye, a waiver pickup from Seattle late last season, scored the third-period winner.

Garand carries the load again

With Igor Shesterkin out for the season after right knee surgery, Dylan Garand is the probable starter for New York. He has played 12 consecutive games (10 starts, two in relief) and owns a .906 save percentage with a 2.52 goals-against average.

There is a wrinkle. Joonas Korpisalo was activated from injured reserve Friday and could make his season debut. Earlier in the week, coach Mike Sullivan said the decision would come after the team talked "as a group here with Chris (Drury, general manager) and our staff and our medical team." The Rangers haven't named a starter.

Seattle's crease is unsettled too. Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord have both been listed as the probable starter, and the team hasn't confirmed either. The choice matters less than usual: Grubauer sits at .886 and Daccord at .889, both well below Garand. Against a team allowing over 30 shots a night, neither has been bailing Seattle out.

A penalty kill problem with a catch

The starkest gap in this game is on the penalty kill (the share of opponent power plays killed without a goal). New York's ranks 1st at 90.6%. Seattle's ranks 30th at 65.0%.

The catch is volume. The Rangers draw just 2.65 power plays per game, 29th, and Seattle is shorthanded only 2.67 times per game, 4th-fewest. So the Kraken's worst weakness may not get tested often. When it does, New York's power play has shown life, with Pavel Dorofeyev tying Thursday's game on the man advantage. Seattle's own power play converts at 21.6%, but it runs into that league-best kill.

Finishing and the total

Seattle wins by finishing. The Kraken shoot 13.6%, 4th in the league, and score 1.2 first-period goals per game, also 4th. That combination, plus their porous defense, explains an 11-4 over record.

The Rangers have trended the other way, going under in each of their last three games. Their scoring leans on Alexis Lafreniere, who has nine goals on a 23.1% shooting rate this season, a pace that small samples tend to cool. Adam Fox drives the rest with 19 assists from the blue line.

Seattle is shorthanded up front. Jared McCann is out roughly 10 weeks with a lower-body injury, and Curtis Douglas went on injured reserve Wednesday. Ryan Lindgren skated in a non-contact jersey Wednesday but remains on the injured list. For New York, defenseman Sean Durzi is on injured reserve and out for this game, though Sullivan said he could join the team during the trip.

The last two meetings, both last season, split: the Rangers won 3-2 in Seattle, and the Kraken won 4-2 at Madison Square Garden.

What to watch

• Whether Korpisalo or Garand takes the net for New York.
• The penalty count: Seattle's 65.0% kill can't afford many trips to the box.
• Seattle's first period, where it has been among the league's most dangerous teams.
• Whether Lafreniere's finishing holds against a shaky Kraken crease.