St Louis Blues vs New Jersey Devils prediction: Devils' shot avalanche tests Joel Hofer and a stalled Blues offense

New Jersey owns the puck

Few teams spend more time in the attacking zone than the Devils. Their shot share, meaning their portion of all shots on goal in their games, sits at 57.2%, 2nd of 32. They generate 32.7 shots per game and allow just 24.5, which ranks 4th.

The catch is finishing. New Jersey converts only 10.4% of its shots, 26th in the league. That gap is why the Devils haven't simply buried teams despite the territorial edge. Jack Hughes has done his share: 19 points and 59 shots in 15 games, including two goals in Tuesday's shootout win over Edmonton.

St. Louis sits on the wrong side of the shot ledger at 48.7%, 19th. Against this opponent, expect the Blues to spend long shifts defending.

Hofer's night to carry the load

Joel Hofer is the probable starter for St. Louis and has earned the job. His .918 save percentage and 2.39 goals-against average are the reason a middling skating group sits at 7-7-1. The Blues' team save percentage ranks 7th, and Hofer has carried most of that weight while Jordan Binnington has struggled in limited work.

At the other end, Connor Hellebuyck is expected to start for New Jersey after starting all three Devils games since the Oct. 23 trade. He is 3-0 with them, with a .900 save percentage and a 1.95 goals-against average. Three starts is a tiny sample, but the Devils haven't had to ask much of him behind that shot suppression. He made 19 saves Tuesday in his home debut. Neither starter is confirmed until warmups.

The kill nobody tests

New Jersey's penalty kill is the glaring weakness: 67.6%, 29th of 32. Penalty kill percentage is the share of opponent power plays a team survives. The Devils offset it with discipline. They go shorthanded just 2.27 times per game, the fewest in the league.

That puts the onus on St. Louis to draw calls, which it rarely does. The Blues earn 2.93 power plays per game, 26th. If they can't change that pattern, the Devils' worst unit may barely see the ice.

Blues searching for goals on the road

St. Louis has scored in fits lately. The Blues were shut out at home by Carolina and Montreal, then rallied in the third period to beat Detroit before falling 3-1 at the Rangers on Tuesday. They are 3-5-0 away from home. The Devils are 7-2-0 at Prudential Center and have won five straight there.

Jimmy Snuggerud is the Blues' finisher with 8 goals, though his 25.0% shooting rate is hard to sustain. The blue line is thin: Torey Krug is on long-term injured reserve with a season-ending ankle injury, and Tyler Tucker and Logan Mailloux remain on injured reserve. Colton Parayko is day-to-day with an upper-body injury after missing Tuesday. Coach Jim Montgomery said he was getting close and might be an option Thursday.

The Devils are without Seamus Casey (knee) and Nick Bjugstad, who is out until January. New Jersey won both meetings last season, 3-2 at home and 3-1 in St. Louis.

What the market sees

The Devils are -190 on the moneyline, with St. Louis at +158. Both teams come in on two days of rest, so there is no schedule edge to price in. The puck line is the standard 1.5, and New Jersey is 7-8 against it this season. That fits a team whose shot dominance doesn't always turn into margin.

The total moved from 5.5 to 6.0 after our feed first saw the game. The Devils' over/under record leans over, but the Blues' recent scoring droughts and Hofer's form pull the other way.