Vancouver Canucks vs Winnipeg Jets prediction: Kyle Connor and the misfiring Jets get a shot at Vancouver's net

The softest net in hockey

Winnipeg finally exhaled Tuesday. Down four goals in Montreal, the Jets scored four times in two minutes and six seconds, then won it when Dylan Samberg buried a pass from captain Adam Lowry in overtime to end a nine-game losing streak. Now they get the one opponent that has looked worse.

Vancouver arrives at 3-13-1 and allows 4.53 goals per game, 32nd of 32. Its team save percentage (goals allowed per shot against) also ranks last. The trouble starts early: the Canucks give up a league-worst 1.41 goals in first periods.

Leevi Merilainen is listed as the probable starter, and he has been the steadier option with a .897 save percentage this season. Kevin Lankinen, the other candidate, sits at .808. Thatcher Demko remains on injured reserve after hip surgery, and the club hopes he returns before Christmas.

Winnipeg's finishing problem

The Jets do not lack chances. They average 27.6 shots per game, 15th in the league. What they lack is finish: their shooting percentage (goals per shot) ranks 31st, which leaves them 29th in scoring.

Kyle Connor is carrying almost all of it with 13 goals on 67 shots. Mark Scheifele has 12 assists but just two goals, and Gabriel Vilardi has one. If anyone besides Connor is going to break out, a goaltending situation like Vancouver's is the place for it.

The early minutes deserve attention. Winnipeg scores 0.44 first-period goals per game, last in the league, against a Canucks team that concedes the most in the opening frame. One of those streaks gives Thursday.

The Jets play without Josh Morrissey, who won't dress against Vancouver with a wrist injury. That thins a blue line that has to protect Stuart Skinner, the probable starter. Skinner carries an .882 save percentage and had been pulled in two straight starts before making 18 saves in Montreal. Winnipeg traded Connor Hellebuyck to New Jersey this fall, and Skinner is now the man in the crease.

Special teams cut both ways

Both penalty kills (the share of opponent power plays killed off) are among the league's worst. Vancouver's kills just 63.2% of chances, 31st, while Winnipeg's sits at 68.8%, 28th.

The edge in the matchup depends on who earns the chances. Vancouver's power play (goals per opportunity) ranks a respectable 15th, but the Jets stay out of the box, ranking 9th in fewest times shorthanded. The Canucks are 22nd in that category, which hands a struggling Winnipeg unit, 25th on the power play, more chances at the league's most generous kill.

Vancouver's thin margin

The Canucks get badly outshot. They manage 21.6 shots per game and own a 40.8% shot share (their portion of all shots in their games), both last in the league. They survive on finishing, ranking 3rd in shooting percentage, with Elias Pettersson driving it at 18 points. That kind of conversion rate rarely holds over a full season.

The lineup is also short. Filip Chytil is on injured reserve and was not traveling for this two-game road trip. Defenseman Tom Willander is listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury as of Wednesday, so his status is unsettled.

What the market says

Winnipeg is a -215 favorite, with Vancouver at +180 and the Jets at -1.5 on the puck line. The total sits at 6.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game. The Jets swept all three meetings last season, the last two by a single goal.

• Watch the first period: the league's worst first-period offense against the worst first-period defense.
• Watch Winnipeg's power play: volume against a kill that ranks 31st.
• Watch the crease: a long night for either goalie would test that 6.5 total.