Nashville Predators vs Colorado Avalanche prediction: Predators' special teams test MacKinnon's Avalanche in Denver rematch

The Predators have the Avs' number

Colorado leads the league in scoring and is 6-1-1 at Ball Arena. Nashville keeps beating it anyway. The Predators have won three of the last five meetings, including a 7-3 rout in Denver last January and a 6-2 win in Nashville on Oct. 25, when they closed as home underdogs.

The Avalanche arrive with a bruise of their own. They were blown out 7-2 in Columbus on Tuesday, a night after beating Chicago 5-2. The Blue Jackets scored four times in the second period, and Scott Wedgewood was pulled after allowing four goals on nine shots. "Not good," Wedgewood said afterward. Wednesday was an off day, so neither team is on a back-to-back.

Special teams tilt toward Nashville

This is where the Predators can erase Colorado's edge in talent. Nashville's power play converts 30.6% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 4th of 32. Its penalty kill stops 89.4% of opposing power plays, 3rd in the league.

Colorado sits in the middle on both: a 21.2% power play ranks 18th, and the Avs rank 17th on the penalty kill. The Avalanche don't take many penalties, ranking 8th in times shorthanded. Still, every trip to the box hands Nashville its best weapon. The Predators also play disciplined hockey, 3rd-lowest in penalty minutes per game.

Volume against the goalie

Five-on-five, this should look like Colorado's game. The Avs average 30.4 shots per game, 3rd in the league, and own a 52.6% shot share (their share of all shots in their games). Nashville's shot share is 47.1%, 28th of 32.

The Predators survive on goaltending. Their team save percentage ranks 4th, while Colorado's ranks 21st. Juuse Saros is the probable starter for Nashville, carrying a .908 save percentage and a 2.77 goals-against average. Mackenzie Blackwood is expected to start for Colorado after relieving Wedgewood on Tuesday; neither team has confirmed its goalie. Blackwood sits at .894 with a 2.8 GAA.

Nathan MacKinnon leads all of this with 27 points in 16 games. Artturi Lehkonen has scored 12 goals on just 34 shots, a finishing rate unlikely to hold all season. For Nashville, Filip Forsberg has 19 points and Steven Stamkos leads the team with 8 goals.

Who's in and who's out

Colorado is without defenseman Josh Manson, out with a left ankle injury and not expected back until late December. Zachary L'Heureux remains on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, with a listed return of Nov. 7. Logan O'Connor returned from a lower-body injury on Monday, and Sam Malinski moved up to the second defense pair on Tuesday.

Nashville's Jonathan Marchessault is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. He sat out Tuesday's game against Carolina after being a game-time decision, and his status for Thursday is unconfirmed.

What to watch

• The market: Colorado is -218 on the moneyline, Nashville +180, with the total at 6.5 and unchanged since our feed first saw it.
• Overs in Colorado games: the Avs have gone over in 12 of 16, though Nashville sits closer to even at 8-7.
• Nashville on the puck line: the Predators are 10-5 against it, and they won Tuesday 4-1 over Carolina as underdogs.
• Penalty count: if the Avs stay out of the box, their shot edge should tell.