Utah Mammoth vs Montréal Canadiens prediction: Utah's power play tests Jacob Fowler and Montreal's penalty habit

Utah's power play, Montreal's penalties

Utah arrives at the Bell Centre with one of the league's most dangerous power plays and some of its shakiest goaltending. Montreal counters with the best goalie in this matchup and a bad habit of handing opponents the man advantage. Thursday night should show which flaw costs more.

Utah converts 36.4% of its power plays, second in the NHL. Power play % is power-play goals per opportunity. Clayton Keller drives that unit as a playmaker, and defenseman Mikhail Sergachev quarterbacks it from the point. Montreal keeps giving units like this room to work. The Canadiens go shorthanded 4.0 times per game, 31st in the league.

The other direction offers Montreal little relief. Its power play converts just 13.0%, while Utah's penalty kill sits at 70.6%. Both kills can be beaten. The Mammoth should simply get more chances to do the beating.

Fowler against the shot volume

Utah's skaters tilt the ice. The Mammoth own 55.0% of the shots in their games, third in the league. Shot share is a team's portion of all shots in its games. Montreal allows 28.9 shots per game, so Fowler should expect a busy night.

Fowler is the probable starter after taking the loss Tuesday, and he has carried this team. His .925 save percentage stands far above anything else in this game. Behind him, Jakub Dobes sits well below that mark, and Samuel Montembeault is on injured reserve. Montreal needs Fowler.

Utah's crease is the problem. Karel Vejmelka is expected to start after Sebastian Cossa made 27 saves in Tuesday's win in Toronto, and Vejmelka's .871 has fueled talk that Cossa should take the job. As a team, Utah stops 86.4% of shots, 30th in the league. That is why a team that controls play doesn't control scoreboards.

Montreal has a way to exploit that early. The Canadiens score 1.27 first-period goals per game, second in the NHL. Cole Caufield leads the attack with 10 goals and scored twice Tuesday.

Montreal's lineup questions

Nick Suzuki was listed as questionable for this game in Wednesday's update after missing six straight. He practiced this week, and he had 12 points in nine games before the injury. His return would push the Canadiens' center depth back into place. Without him, Alex Newhook projects to center Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky.

Kirby Dach is day-to-day with an illness. Ivan Demidov remains on injured reserve with an ankle fracture. He skated Tuesday and could resume training with the team next week. Mike Matheson is out with a lower-body injury, and as of Oct. 31 he was expected to miss two weeks.

Utah has its own holes on defense. John Marino went on injured reserve Nov. 1 with an upper-body injury, and Maveric Lamoureux is out long term after shoulder surgery. Kailer Yamamoto is day-to-day after missing the last two games, with nothing confirmed for Thursday.

What the market says

Books make Utah a -120 favorite on the road, with Montreal at +102 at home. The total sits at 6.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first saw the game Wednesday.

The puck line tells a cautionary tale for Utah backers. The Mammoth are 5-11 against it this season and failed to cover in all five recent games as a favorite, even while winning three of them. Their games trend high, with the over hitting in 10 of 16. Montreal won both meetings last season, 6-2 and 4-3.