Dallas Stars vs Columbus Blue Jackets prediction: Casey DeSmith gets the Stars' crease as Columbus rides a 7-2 rout

Dallas turns to its backup

The Stars have won two straight and want a third, but they are taking a different goalie into Columbus. Casey DeSmith is expected to start, though the team hasn't confirmed it, giving Jake Oettinger a night off after he allowed five goals on 25 Capitals shots Tuesday. Dallas isn't on a back-to-back, so this reads as a rest call rather than a schedule one.

The gap between the two is real. Oettinger has carried the load, starting 12 of 15 games with a 90.9% save rate and a 1.91 goals-against average. DeSmith sits at 88.8% and 2.94 in three appearances, a small sample but not a reassuring one.

The blue line is unsettled too. Miro Heiskanen left Tuesday's win after one second-period shift with an upper-body injury and is day-to-day. Coach Glen Gulutzan said Wednesday he likely wouldn't play, then on Thursday stopped short of ruling him out. Losing a defenseman who logs 24.9 minutes a night would push Thomas Harley into a bigger role, likely including the top power play.

Special teams tilt to Dallas

Both units favor the visitors. The Stars kill 90.0% of opponents' power plays, 2nd in the league, while Columbus converts just 17.1% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 24th. Flip it around and the Blue Jackets' penalty kill ranks 24th at 72.5%, against a Dallas power play that sits 11th.

The catch is volume. Dallas draws only 2.27 power plays a game, last in the NHL, and Columbus ranks 28th in the same category. Neither team lives on the man advantage, so the edge may show up once, if at all.

Columbus has to make shots count

Dallas is built to choke games. The Stars allow 22.5 shots a game, 2nd in the league, and 2.33 goals, 3rd. Columbus generates 25.5 shots, 26th, so it can't count on volume.

That puts the weight on finishers. Kent Johnson has seven goals on 26 shots, and Charlie Coyle tied his career high with four points, two of them goals, in Tuesday's 7-2 rout of Colorado. Coyle's third line, with Cole Sillinger and Mathieu Olivier, drew Colorado's top line in that game, and a similar job against Dallas' best forwards looms. Zach Werenski drives the offense from the back end with 12 assists and no goals.

The Stars' scoring runs through Mikko Rantanen and Jason Robertson, who each have 18 points. Rantanen is converting 27.6% of his shots, a pace few sustain, while Robertson leads the team with 49 shots. Columbus won both meetings last season, but Dallas took the first one this year 3-1 on Oct. 31, and this is the teams' final meeting of the season.

Who's in the Columbus net

The Blue Jackets haven't named a starter. Jet Greaves is listed as the probable, and Cam Talbot made 27 saves in Tuesday's win. With Buffalo on Friday, the two will split the back-to-back in some order.

Talbot has been the steadier option at 90.0%, while Greaves sits at 88.3% with a 3.11 goals-against average. Either way, Columbus is 5-3-0 at home against a Dallas team that is 4-1-1 on the road.

What the market says

Dallas is a -128 favorite, with Columbus at +107 and the total at 5.5. Neither the puck line nor the total has moved since our feed first saw the game, so the DeSmith news hasn't shifted anything.

The total bears watching. Stars games have gone under 11 times in 15, a product of that shot suppression, while Columbus sits 6-7 to the over. A backup in the Dallas net is the main argument against that trend.

• Whether Heiskanen dresses at warmups
• Which Columbus goalie starts, with Buffalo up Friday
• Coyle's line against Dallas' top forwards