Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders prediction: Carolina's shot machine tests Sorokin and a thinned Islanders defense

The shot gap Sorokin must close

The defending Stanley Cup champions arrive on Long Island doing the one thing that wins hockey games over a long season: they own the puck. Carolina takes 59.7% of all shots in its games (shot share, a team's portion of every shot on goal), first in the NHL. The Hurricanes fire 32.9 shots per game, also first, and allow just 22.2, the league's lowest.

The Islanders sit at the other end of that ledger. They average 25.6 shots per game, 24th in the league, and their scoring sits 26th. New York has kept games close with goaltending and structure rather than pressure. That puts Ilya Sorokin, the probable starter, at the center of this one. His .911 save percentage this season is solid, and the Islanders will likely need better than that against this volume.

Carolina has also had New York's number lately, winning all three meetings over the last two seasons, two of them by a single goal.

Kochetkov holds the crease

Pyotr Kochetkov is expected to start for Carolina, though neither team had confirmed a goalie. He has handled most of the work, posting a .921 save percentage and a 1.64 goals-against average this season. The drop-off behind him is steep: Brandon Bussi sits at 86.5% in his starts.

The Hurricanes come in off a 4-1 loss in Nashville on Tuesday, their only goal from Jackson Blake in the second period. It was a rare off night for a team that is 12-3-2. The Islanders have not played since a shutout loss to Edmonton on Oct. 31, so rust and rest both enter the picture. The team has said it wants Semyon Varlamov to start about once a week, but the long break makes Sorokin the logical choice.

Special teams favor the visitors

New York's penalty kill is its best weapon at 86.0%, fifth in the league. The problem is how often it gets used. The Islanders are shorthanded 3.57 times per game, 28th of 32, and Carolina draws power plays at the fifth-highest rate in the league.

Going the other way offers little relief. The Islanders' power play converts 15.9% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 29th in the NHL. Carolina's kill ranks ninth. If this game turns on penalties, the math leans toward the Hurricanes, and New York's discipline may matter as much as its goaltender.

Both benches are short

The Islanders' injury list runs deep on defense. Ryan Pulock is out two to four weeks with an upper-body injury announced Sunday, and Alexander Romanov is out for the season with a torn ACL. Isaiah George was recalled after Pulock went down. Mathew Barzal practiced Wednesday in a no-contact jersey and remains on injured reserve with no timetable. Matias Maccelli and Calum Ritchie are also on IR. That leaves defenseman Matthew Schaefer carrying a massive load at 26.8 minutes per game.

Carolina is without Jordan Staal (calf) on injured reserve, and Alexander Nikishin is out for a reason unrelated to injury. Taylor Hall, sidelined since Oct. 13, is day-to-day; Rod Brind'Amour said Tuesday he was hopeful Hall could play Thursday, but his status is unconfirmed. Seth Jarvis, returning from offseason shoulder surgery, has not been confirmed as cleared.

What the price says

The market makes Carolina a -176 favorite on the road, with the Islanders at +146 and the total at 5.5. The puck line and total have not moved since our feed first saw the game. Unders have been the theme for the Hurricanes, who are 7-10 on totals this season, while the Islanders sit 6-8. A strong Carolina defense against a low-volume Islanders attack fits that pattern, though a power-play goal or two can push a 5.5 total quickly.

What to watch: - Whether Hall is in Carolina's lineup at warmups - Islanders penalties in the first period - Sorokin's workload if Carolina pushes the shot count past 30