Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: Back-to-back Blackhawks likely turn to Soderblom against unbeaten-at-home Lightning

The second-night problem

Chicago lost 5-3 in Florida on Wednesday night and now plays its second road game in two nights. The destination is unkind: Tampa Bay is 7-0-0 at home, and the Blackhawks are 0-6-1 away from Chicago.

Spencer Knight started and made 25 saves against the Panthers, so Arvid Soderblom is expected to start here. Neither team had confirmed its goalie as of Thursday. Soderblom's season has been rough: an 82.9% save percentage and a 4.66 goals-against average. That's only three games, a small sample in a sport where a few bad bounces swing everything, but Chicago has little margin to absorb it.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is the probable starter for Tampa Bay. He hasn't been sharp either, with an 87.9% save percentage and a 2.91 GAA over 11 games. As a team, the Lightning rank 28th in save percentage, which is why this game may not be as quiet as the odds suggest.

Tampa Bay owns the puck

The cleanest edge is territorial. Tampa Bay takes 54.8% of all shots in its games, 4th in the league, and allows just 24.6 shots per game, 5th fewest. Chicago sits at the other end, generating 22.8 shots per game, 31st of 32.

The Lightning also start fast. Their 1.29 first-period goals per game lead the league, while Chicago allows 1.19 in opening periods, 27th. The Blackhawks trailed 0-2 after one in Florida on Wednesday. Do that again on tired legs in Tampa and the night gets long quickly.

Stars, and a power play in a slump

Nikita Kucherov is driving Tampa Bay with 20 points in 14 games, 16 of them assists. Brandon Hagel supplies the volume with 59 shots, and Jake Guentzel leads the team with eight goals.

Chicago's best hope is Connor Bedard, who has 12 points in 10 games. Frank Nazar scored twice Wednesday, including a shorthanded breakaway that cut Florida's lead to 3-2 in the third. Roman Kantserov has seven goals on a 25.9% shooting rate, a pace that rarely holds.

The Blackhawks' power play converts at 10.0%, last in the league. Levshunov ran the top unit Wednesday with Kane and Byram out. Tampa Bay's power play hasn't been much better at 27th, but the Lightning draw 3.5 power plays per game, 7th, so they'll get chances.

Who's missing

Chicago is thin. Patrick Kane (upper body) is out; coach Jeff Blashill said Monday he would miss at least the next couple of games. Bowen Byram (upper body) is on injured reserve, and Blashill said last week he hadn't been medically cleared and was seeing a specialist. Ryan Ellis (back) is out for the season.

Tampa Bay will be without Yanni Gourde (hip), who could return during the upcoming road trip, and Zemgus Girgensons (lower body) is listed out. Neither loss touches the top of the lineup.

There's a bench subplot, too. Blashill spent three seasons with the Lightning before Chicago hired him, and this is his first trip back to face them this season.

What to watch

The market agrees with the territorial picture: Tampa Bay is -400 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the puck line, with the total at 6.5. None of it has moved since our feed first saw the game on Wednesday. The Lightning are 8-6 on the puck line this season, and Chicago has gone over in nine of its 16 games.

Last season's two meetings were tight, a 3-2 Chicago win in Tampa and a 2-1 Lightning win in Chicago.

• Warmups: whether Soderblom is confirmed in the Chicago net.
• The first 20 minutes: Tampa Bay's league-best opening period against a team on no rest.
• Penalties: Chicago's last-ranked power play needs Tampa Bay to give it chances.