Vegas Golden Knights vs Detroit Red Wings prediction: Red Wings' goalie scramble collides with Vegas's lethal power play

Detroit's crease in flux

The most important question in this game is who stands in Detroit's net, and the answer isn't settled. John Gibson left Tuesday's loss at Tampa Bay with a lower-body injury. He was still listed as day-to-day as of Thursday. ESPN lists him as the probable starter, but the Red Wings recalled Michal Postava under emergency conditions, and Postava projects as the backup to Daniil Tarasov.

That swap would be an upgrade on early-season form. Gibson has stopped just 86.0% of shots across 11 games. Tarasov sits at 92.7% with a 1.74 goals-against average, though that is only six appearances. Detroit's team save percentage ranks 22nd of 32, so any steadiness in goal matters.

Vegas hasn't confirmed its starter either. Carter Hart is ESPN's probable starter, and Adin Hill appears to have played the most recent game. The two have nearly identical numbers: Hart at 89.3% and Hill at 89.5%.

Power plays against soft kills

Special teams tilt toward Vegas. Its power play converts 29.4% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 6th in the league. Detroit's penalty kill stops just 70.0% of opponent power plays, 26th of 32.

The Red Wings have a path back. Their power play ranks 10th at 23.6%, and they draw 3.44 power plays per game, 9th. Vegas's kill is 22nd at 73.9%, and the Golden Knights have given up a power-play goal in seven of their last eight games. J.T. Compher scored on the man advantage Tuesday to pull Detroit within a goal at Tampa. Discipline could decide this one, since both kills are vulnerable.

Shots without finish in Detroit

Detroit controls the puck better than its record suggests. The Red Wings own 54.1% of the shots in their games (shot share), 7th in the league. The problem is converting. They score on 9.9% of their shots, 28th of 32.

They are doing it without Dylan Larkin, whom the club suspended after he told the team he no longer wanted to play for the organization. Injuries have also sidelined Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton. Alex DeBrincat carries the shooting load with 59 shots and 16 points. Lucas Raymond also has 16 points.

Detroit's slow starts compound the issue. The Red Wings score just 0.62 first-period goals per game, 29th in the league.

Vegas has finishers. Mark Stone has 10 goals on a 28.6% shooting rate, a pace that is hard to sustain. Jack Eichel leads the team with 22 points.

Vegas's slide and the price

Vegas opened 8-2 and has since lost five of six. Coach Ryan Craig called the road trip "a grind," and this is the third road game in four nights. Still, Vegas comes in with two days of rest after beating Pittsburgh 3-2 on Tuesday. The Golden Knights also won both meetings last season, 1-0 in Vegas and 4-3 in Detroit.

The market still trusts Vegas. The Golden Knights are -145 on the moneyline with Detroit at +125, and the total of 6.0 hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. Vegas games have gone over 11 times in 17. Both power plays favor more goals, but a sharp Tarasov would pull this game the other way.