Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Rangers prediction: Flyers' last-ranked offense tests the Rangers' home fortress at MSG

Goals are hard to find

The Flyers have a scoring problem that no amount of effort has fixed. They average 2.18 goals per game, 32nd of 32, and only 23.4 shots on goal, which ranks 30th. Their shot share, the portion of all shots in their games that they take, sits at 44.4%, also 30th.

That makes Thursday a tough opening to a five-game road trip. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 away from home, while the Rangers are 7-2-0 at Madison Square Garden. The Flyers did steady themselves after an 0-6-3 start, going 4-3-1 since, but Tuesday's 4-2 loss to Minnesota followed a familiar script: they fell behind 3-0 before Denver Barkey's power-play goal, his first of the season, made it interesting.

What offense exists runs through Matvei Michkov, who has 10 goals on just 27 shots. That 37.0% shooting rate is not sustainable, and if it cools, the rest of the lineup hasn't shown it can pick up the slack. Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett returned from injured reserve on Sunday, which adds depth the Flyers badly needed.

The best kill in hockey

The Rangers' penalty kill, measured as the share of opponent power plays they survive without allowing a goal, is 90.4%, 1st in the league. Philadelphia's power play converts 16.7% of its chances, 26th.

The Flyers do get chances. They draw 3.18 power plays per game, but they also go shorthanded 3.41 times a game, 23rd, which hands a middling Rangers power play (18.6%, 22nd) extra looks. New York's own edge is subtler: it wins 54.2% of faceoffs, 5th, and that helps on special-teams draws.

A goaltending picture still in flux

Neither starter is settled. The listed probables are Dan Vladar for Philadelphia and James Reimer for New York, but the reporting conflicts. Vladar started Sunday and Tuesday, which points to Joseph Woll getting the net; Woll owns an .899 save percentage to Vladar's .883 this season, a meaningful gap for a team that can't outscore mistakes.

The Rangers are working without Igor Shesterkin, who is out for the season after right knee surgery, and Joonas Korpisalo, who was sent to AHL Hartford for a conditioning stint on Wednesday. Dylan Garand has carried the load with a .905 save percentage and a 2.57 goals-against average, and he made 32 saves to end a four-game skid against St. Louis on Tuesday. If Reimer starts instead, the Rangers turn to a goalie with no games in this season's numbers.

On defense, Sean Durzi is day-to-day after missing Tuesday's game, his second straight absence, with no update on Thursday as of Wednesday's report.

Stars and recent form

Adam Fox drives New York's attack from the blue line with 19 points, 17 of them assists. Alexis Lafreniere has 9 goals and is converting 23.7% of his shots. J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad add 12 points apiece.

The Rangers still enter on shaky footing, with just two wins in their last eight. Their home form, though, has been the steadying force, and last season's series leaned their way: they won 5-4 at home and 6-3 and 6-2 in Philadelphia, while the Flyers' lone win was a 3-2 game at the Garden. For Philadelphia, Trevor Zegras leads with 14 points, and Ristolainen remains on injured reserve with a hand injury, his expected return set for Nov. 11.

What the market says

New York is a -150 moneyline favorite, with Philadelphia at +129, and the puck line and 5.5 total have not moved since our feed first saw the game. The total tension is real: the Flyers have gone under in 10 of 17 games, yet each of their last five went over. The Rangers are 9-7 to the over, though their last two finished under. Small samples swing hard in hockey, but a weak Flyers attack against a stingy Rangers kill is the clearest signal on the board.

• Who starts in goal for each side at warmups
• Whether Philadelphia stays out of the box
• Michkov's shot volume against the Rangers' top pair