Seattle Kraken vs Carolina Hurricanes prediction: Hurricanes' shot wall stands between Seattle and a Helsinki split

Seattle runs into a shot wall

Two days after a 4-1 Carolina win in the same building, the Kraken get one more chance to leave Finland with a split. The problem is the same one they had Thursday: they rarely have the puck.

Carolina owns a 60.2% shot share (its share of all shots on goal in its games), first of 32 teams. The Hurricanes also allow just 21.9 shots per game, the fewest in the league. Seattle sits at the other end, with a 45.2% shot share that ranks 30th.

What has kept the Kraken afloat is finishing. They shoot 13.2%, sixth in the league, which is how a low-volume team still scores 3.29 goals per game. That rate can cool quickly, and Thursday showed what it looks like when it does. Seattle's only goal came from Frederick Gaudreau late in the third period, and it merely spoiled the shutout. The Kraken have lost three of their past four.

Kochetkov expected back in goal

Thursday's opener went Brandon Bussi against Philipp Grubauer, who made 26 saves in the loss. For the rematch, Pyotr Kochetkov is the probable starter for Carolina and Joey Daccord for Seattle. Neither team had confirmed its goalie as of Saturday morning.

Kochetkov has been the steadier of Carolina's two options, with a .920 save percentage in 12 games. His goals-against average sits at 1.67. Daccord has had a harder time behind a team that bleeds shots, posting an .881 save percentage. His 3.83 goals-against average reflects that workload.

If the expected starters hold, this is the clearest gap in the game. Seattle's team save percentage ranks 22nd, and against the league's highest-volume attack, Daccord will need to be well above his season form.

Seattle's penalty kill is the soft spot

The Kraken rank 30th on the penalty kill at 65.2% (the share of opponent power plays they survive). Carolina's power play converts 22.7%, 13th in the league, and it already cashed in Thursday when Sebastian Aho redirected a man-advantage goal for a 2-0 lead.

Seattle's saving grace is discipline. The Kraken are shorthanded 2.71 times per game, fourth-fewest in the league, so the exposure is limited. Their own power play, 15th at 21.8%, runs into a Carolina kill that ranks eighth at 85.5%.

Starts matter too. Carolina allows 0.65 first-period goals per game, fifth in the league, while Seattle gives up 1.18, 26th. The Kraken trailed 2-0 after the first on Thursday.

Lineup questions on both benches

Jordan Staal is a game-time decision for Carolina with a calf injury. He took part in both practices in Helsinki, worked on special teams Friday and is projected to center the third line between Seth Jarvis and Jordan Martinook. Rod Brind'Amour said, "hopefully he does play." Alexander Nikishin, a healthy scratch Thursday, is projected to return on a pair with Shayne Gostisbehere.

Seattle coach Lane Lambert called defenseman Ryan Lindgren and forward Jacob Melanson game-time decisions. Lindgren has not played since Oct. 6 and Melanson since Oct. 1. Rookie Jagger Firkus is projected into the lineup and would make his NHL debut. Jared McCann remains out with a lower-body injury, with a January return listed.

Aho, playing in his home country, carries Carolina's attack with 28 points in 20 games. Kaapo Kakko is Seattle's Finnish draw.

What the price says

Carolina is a heavy favorite at -410, with Seattle at +320. The puck line sits at 1.5 and the total at 6.5, and neither has moved since our feed first saw the game.

The totals history splits. Seattle games have gone over 12 times in 17, a product of the Kraken's porous defense and hot shooting. Carolina's games lean the other way, 9 overs against 11 unders. The Hurricanes are 11-9 against the puck line this season. With Carolina's attack leading the league at 4.1 goals per game, the question is whether Daccord keeps the margin inside two goals.