Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: Daniil Tarasov carries Detroit's hopes into Tampa's unbeaten building
The Lightning have not lost at home, and Detroit's best answer is the goalie who has outplayed everyone else in its crease.
Detroit Red Wings covered the closing puck line (Detroit Red Wings +1.5). The game went under the closing total of 5.5.
| Line | Tampa Bay Lightning -215 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Tampa ranks 2nd in first-period scoring and is 8-0-0 at home. Detroit has to get through the first period intact.
- The goalies: Tarasov's .919 save percentage against Vasilevskiy's .884. Detroit's chances rest on that gap holding.
- Tampa is -220 on the moneyline. The total has slipped to 6.0 from a first-seen 6.5.
Tarasov against an unbeaten building
The Red Wings come to Tampa with a goaltending problem and a possible answer to it. Daniil Tarasov is the probable starter and is slated for the net Saturday, though Detroit has not formally confirmed it. He has stopped .919 of the shots he has faced this season, with a 2.1 goals-against average. John Gibson, who left the Nov. 3 loss in this same building with a lower-body injury and later won the net back, sits at .862. That gap is Detroit's whole case.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is Tampa's expected starter, and his .884 save percentage is not vintage Vasilevskiy. At home it has not needed to be. The Lightning are 8-0-0 in Tampa, and Saturday opens a six-game homestand. They also start fast: Tampa ranks 2nd in first-period goals per game, while Detroit ranks 28th. If the Lightning get an early lead, a Red Wings team that struggles to score has little way back.
Detroit shoots plenty, scores little
Detroit's problem is not getting the puck to the net. The Red Wings hold a 52.7% shot share, meaning their slice of all shots in their games, and that ranks 9th in the league. The shots just are not going in. Their 9.1% shooting rate ranks 29th.
Tampa finishes at the other end of the scale. The Lightning convert 13.3% of their shots, 5th in the league. Brandon Hagel leads the team with 13 goals, and Jake Guentzel has been nearly as dangerous. Nikita Kucherov runs everything from the right wall. His career record against Detroit is 60 points in 44 games, a franchise best against this opponent. Over a handful of games, shooting luck is noisy. Still, one team has been converting its chances and the other has not.
Two penalty kills under strain
Neither team's power play stands out, but both penalty kills have been poor. Detroit kills penalties at 70.5%, meaning the share of opponents' power plays that end without a goal, and that ranks 27th. Tampa is barely better at 25th.
The tilt favors the Lightning because they earn more chances. Tampa ranks 6th in power plays drawn per game. Against a Detroit kill this shaky, a couple of trips to the box could decide it.
Who is missing
Tampa is without Brayden Point, who went on injured reserve with a lower-body injury after leaving Sunday's loss in Winnipeg. His listed return date is Dec. 2. Anthony Cirelli (lower body) missed Thursday's win in Columbus, and defenseman Erik Cernak (upper body) was called probably out for that game. Both were listed day-to-day as of Friday, so their status for Saturday is unsettled. Yanni Gourde returned from injured reserve last weekend.
For Detroit, Dylan Larkin is still on injured reserve while serving a suspension. An Oct. 31 update listed Saturday as his expected return, and his availability has not been confirmed since. Simon Edvinsson remains on the non-roster list in a contract dispute. Albert Johansson is on injured reserve but traveling with the team. Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton were activated from injured reserve on Nov. 10.
What the market says
The books have Tampa as a clear favorite at -220, with Detroit at +183. The puck line is the standard Tampa -1.5. Detroit's 10-10 record against the puck line this season shows its losses have often been close.
The more telling move is on the total. It has dropped to 6.0 from the 6.5 our feed first recorded. Tampa's games have gone over at an 11-8 clip this season, so the lower number puts that home attack against Detroit's best goalie.
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning line movement and odds
| Book | Wings ML | Lightning ML | Wings spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 | +1.5 (-145) | o6 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +170 | -205 | +1.5 (-148) | o5.5 (-135) |
| ESPN BET | +175 | -210 | +1.5 (-155) | o5.5 (-135) |
| Fanatics | +165 | -200 | +1.5 (-150) | o6.5 (+115) |
| FanDuel | +168 | -205 | +1.5 (-158) | o6.5 (+114) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +160 | -210 | +1.5 (-145) | o5.5 (-130) |
| Caesars | +180 | -215 | +1.5 (-148) | o6 (-117) |
Where the money is on Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning
On the Kalshi moneyline: Detroit Red Wings: 16% of bets, 5% of the money; Tampa Bay Lightning: 84% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5: 77% of bets, 76% of the money; Detroit Red Wings +1.5: 23% of bets, 24% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 5.5: 83% of bets, 82% of the money; Under 5.5: 17% of bets, 18% of the money.
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning stats (this season)
| Stat | Detroit Red Wings | Tampa Bay Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-10-3 | 13-4-2 |
| Goals per game | 2.65 (27th of 32) | 3.89 (4th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.10 (16th of 32) | 2.95 (12th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | -0.45 (23rd of 32) | 0.95 (6th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 29.0 (9th of 32) | 29.4 (5th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 26.1 (9th of 32) | 25.2 (5th of 32) |
| Shot share | 52.7% (9th of 32) | 53.9% (3rd of 32) |
| Shooting % | 9.1% (29th of 32) | 13.3% (5th of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.1% (21st of 32) | 88.3% (20th of 32) |
| Power play % | 20.6% (19th of 32) | 21.2% (15th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 70.5% (27th of 32) | 71.7% (25th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 49.0% (18th of 32) | 49.0% (19th of 32) |
Key players
- Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning): Leads Tampa with 28 points this season, 20 of them assists.
- Brandon Hagel (Tampa Bay Lightning): Has 13 goals on a team-high 76 shots this season.
- Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay Lightning): Has scored 11 goals on 21.6% shooting this season.
- Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning): Owns an .884 save percentage and 2.86 goals-against average in 14 games this season.
- Daniil Tarasov (Detroit Red Wings): Has a .919 save percentage and 2.1 goals-against average in eight games this season.
- Lucas Raymond (Detroit Red Wings): Leads Detroit with 19 points this season.
- Alex DeBrincat (Detroit Red Wings): Leads the Red Wings with 69 shots this season but is converting at only 10.1%.
- Viktor Arvidsson (Detroit Red Wings): Has a team-high 8 goals on 14.0% shooting this season.
Numbers that matter
| Tampa home record | 8-0-0 | The Lightning have not lost in regulation or overtime at home this season. |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit shooting % | 9.1% | That ranks 29th in the league despite a top-10 shot share. |
| Tarasov save % | .919 | Detroit's probable starter has been far steadier than Gibson's .862. |
| Detroit penalty kill | 70.5% | It ranks 27th, and Tampa draws the 6th-most power plays per game. |
| Tampa moneyline | -220 | A clear home favorite, with the total falling to 6.0 since our feed first saw it. |
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning: quick answers
What was the final score of Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning?
Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 0 (final). Detroit Red Wings covered the closing puck line (Detroit Red Wings +1.5). The game went under the closing total of 5.5.
What is the over/under for Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning?
The total is 6 goals.
When is Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning played?
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa.
Has the line moved for Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning?
No: Detroit Red Wings has stayed at +1.5, and the total moved from 6.5 to 5.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Detroit Red Wings: 16% of bets, 5% of the money; Tampa Bay Lightning: 84% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5: 77% of bets, 76% of the money; Detroit Red Wings +1.5: 23% of bets, 24% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 5.5: 83% of bets, 82% of the money; Under 5.5: 17% of bets, 18% of the money.