Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues prediction: Joel Hofer stands between the Barkov-less Panthers and a third straight win
Florida brings the shot volume and the Tkachuk brothers, but the hottest goalie in this building plays for St. Louis, and Florida's penalty habit could hand him help.
Florida Panthers covered the closing puck line (Florida Panthers +1.5). The game went under the closing total of 5.5.
| Line | St. Louis Blues -115 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Expect Florida to carry play and outshoot St. Louis while Hofer and a disciplined Blues team try to keep it tight and low-scoring.
- Watch Florida's parade to the box against a Blues team that rarely gives up power plays: discipline, not five-on-five, may decide it.
- St. Louis is a slim -115 favorite at home, and the total has dropped to 6.0 from 6.5 with Hofer posting a .926 save percentage.
Hofer against the shot volume
Keith Tkachuk gets celebrated in St. Louis on Saturday after his Hall of Fame induction this week, and two of his sons arrive in the visiting sweater. Matthew and Brady Tkachuk lead a Florida team chasing its third straight win without Aleksander Barkov or Brad Marchand. The obstacle is the Blues' best player this fall: their goalie.
Joel Hofer is the probable starter, though the Blues haven't confirmed it. He carries a .926 save percentage and a 2.15 goals-against average, and he blanked Utah through overtime Thursday before St. Louis won 1-0 in an eight-round shootout. The drop-off behind him is steep: Jordan Binnington sits at .849.
Hofer will be busy. The Blues allow 28.9 shots per game, 25th of 32 teams. Florida fires 29.4 per game, fourth-most in the league, and owns one of the best shot shares (a team's slice of all shots in its games) in hockey.
Florida's crease is murkier. Jacob Markstrom is listed as the probable starter, but the choice between him and Akira Schmid looks unsettled, and Schmid started Thursday's win over Detroit. Markstrom brings a .900 save percentage. Schmid sits at .883.
Florida's trip to the box
The Panthers play a high-contact, high-penalty game, and it cuts both ways. They draw 4.2 power plays per game, the most in the NHL. They also go shorthanded 4.0 times per game, 31st of 32, and lead the league in hits.
St. Louis sits at the other extreme. The Blues are shorthanded just 2.63 times per game, third-fewest, which limits how often Florida's skill gets a free look. Both penalty kills rank among the league's best, so neither power play should expect easy goals.
That puts the pressure on the Blues' power play, which converts 20.0% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), a middling mark. Coach Montgomery has said he wants his team to play faster and convert more power plays, while praising his goaltending. If Florida keeps taking penalties at its usual rate, the Blues get more chances to fix that here.
Tkachuks carry the load
With Barkov and Marchand on injured reserve, Florida's offense runs through familiar names. Matthew Tkachuk leads the team with 28 points, almost all of them as a setup man. Brady Tkachuk has 10 goals and leads the listed Panthers in shots, and Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe give Florida real depth up front. Marchand's listed return date is Nov. 21 and Barkov's is Nov. 27.
St. Louis scores less, and its leading finisher may be running hot. Jimmy Snuggerud has 10 goals on a 23.8% shooting rate, a pace that rarely holds over a full season. Robert Thomas drives the setup work, and Jake Neighbours is expected to play in his 300th career game. The Blues lost Torey Krug for the season, and Dillon Dube and Tyler Tucker remain out.
A market leaning low
Books barely separate these teams. St. Louis is the moneyline favorite at -115 at home, with Florida at -105. The Blues are also -1.5 on the puck line, and that line has moved from +1.5 to -1.5. The total tells a clear story too: our feed first showed 6.5, and it has dropped to 6.0.
That move fits the Blues' recent games. They beat Detroit 3-2 and Utah 1-0 in a shootout after a scoreless regulation and overtime, both under their totals. Florida's games have run higher, but a hot Hofer and a Blues team that stays out of the box are the case for a tight night. St. Louis also swept last season's series, outscoring Florida 11-6 over two games.
Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues line movement and odds
| Book | Panthers ML | Blues ML | Panthers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-285) | o5.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 | +1.5 (-285) | o5.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+220) | o5.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-285) | o5.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | -108 | -113 | +1.5 (-265) | o5.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -115 | -1.5 (+210) | o5.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -107 | -110 | +1.5 (-290) | o5.5 (-120) |
Where the money is on Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues
On the Kalshi moneyline: Florida Panthers: 63% of bets, 20% of the money; St Louis Blues: 37% of bets, 80% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St Louis Blues -1.5: 17% of bets, 4% of the money; Florida Panthers +1.5: 83% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 5.5: 62% of bets, 8% of the money; Under 5.5: 38% of bets, 92% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: St. Louis Blues (1 wallet, $47). Largest: Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $47 on St. Louis Blues.
Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues stats (this season)
| Stat | Florida Panthers | St Louis Blues |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-7-2 | 9-8-2 |
| Goals per game | 3.25 (14th of 32) | 2.79 (24th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.00 (13th of 32) | 2.89 (11th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.25 (12th of 32) | -0.11 (19th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 29.4 (4th of 32) | 27.2 (19th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 26.0 (8th of 32) | 28.9 (25th of 32) |
| Shot share | 53.1% (6th of 32) | 48.4% (23rd of 32) |
| Shooting % | 11.0% (21st of 32) | 10.3% (24th of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.5% (18th of 32) | 90.0% (5th of 32) |
| Power play % | 23.8% (13th of 32) | 20.0% (20th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 86.2% (4th of 32) | 86.0% (5th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 47.6% (25th of 32) | 49.0% (20th of 32) |
Key players
- Matthew Tkachuk (Florida Panthers): Leads Florida with 28 points this season, carrying more of the creative load with Barkov out.
- Brady Tkachuk (Florida Panthers): Has 10 goals on 73 shots this season and plays in the arena where his father is honored.
- Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers): Leads the Panthers with 11 goals this season.
- Jacob Markstrom (Florida Panthers): Owns a .900 save percentage this season, though Florida's starter choice with Schmid looks unsettled.
- Joel Hofer (St. Louis Blues): Posts a .926 save percentage and 2.15 goals-against average this season, coming off a shootout shutout of Utah.
- Jimmy Snuggerud (St. Louis Blues): Has 10 goals this season on a 23.8% shooting rate.
- Robert Thomas (St. Louis Blues): Leads the Blues with 14 points this season, most of them assists.
Numbers that matter
| Hofer save percentage | 92.6% | The probable Blues starter is the biggest reason a below-average team has stayed competitive. |
|---|---|---|
| Florida times shorthanded per game | 31st | Florida goes shorthanded more than almost anyone, while St. Louis ranks third-fewest. |
| Florida shots per game | 29.4 | Fourth in the NHL, aimed at a Blues team that allows the 25th-most shots. |
| Total | 6.0 | Down from 6.5 when our feed first listed the game. |
Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues: quick answers
What was the final score of Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues?
Florida Panthers 4, St Louis Blues 1 (final). Florida Panthers covered the closing puck line (Florida Panthers +1.5). The game went under the closing total of 5.5.
What is the over/under for Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues?
The total is 6 goals.
When is Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues played?
Enterprise Center, St. Louis.
Has the line moved for Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues?
Yes: Florida Panthers opened -1.5 and is now +1.5, and the total moved from 6.5 to 5.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Florida Panthers: 63% of bets, 20% of the money; St Louis Blues: 37% of bets, 80% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St Louis Blues -1.5: 17% of bets, 4% of the money; Florida Panthers +1.5: 83% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 5.5: 62% of bets, 8% of the money; Under 5.5: 38% of bets, 92% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Florida Panthers vs St Louis Blues?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: St. Louis Blues (1 wallet, $47). Largest: Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $47 on St. Louis Blues. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.