Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: McDavid's Oilers take aim at a Leafs crease without answers
Edmonton brings the league's sharpest finishing to Toronto, and the Maple Leafs still haven't decided who stands in front of it.
Toronto Maple Leafs covered the closing puck line (Edmonton Oilers -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
| Line | Edmonton Oilers -150 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Edmonton's elite finishing should find a soft Toronto crease, though a Leafs power play ranked 6th keeps this from being a runaway.
- The goalie call: Bobrovsky's .881 save percentage against Stolarz's .900, with Hiller undecided heading into the morning skate.
- Edmonton is -150 with the total at 6.5, and the total and puck line are unchanged since our feed first saw the game. The Oilers are 13-7 on the puck line.
Toronto's unsettled crease
The Maple Leafs have dropped five straight at Scotiabank Arena. Their coach still hasn't picked a goalie for the game most likely to extend that run. Jim Hiller left Saturday's start open, and the choice is real. Sergei Bobrovsky is listed as the probable starter. Anthony Stolarz has made three of the last six starts and has been the steadier of the two.
The gap is not small. Bobrovsky carries a .881 save percentage this season, and Stolarz sits at .900. As a team, Toronto stops 88.0% of shots, which ranks 24th of 32. Facing an Edmonton roster built to punish those numbers, the morning skate may be the most important event of the day.
Edmonton hasn't confirmed its starter either. Devon Levi is the probable starter after Tristan Jarry played Wednesday's overtime win over Philadelphia. Levi's .898 is modest. Behind Edmonton's defense, it hasn't needed to be more.
Edmonton doesn't need volume
The Oilers don't pile up shots. They average 25.6 per game, 27th in the league. They make the shots they do take count: their shooting percentage (goals per shot on goal) is 15.7%, 1st in the NHL.
The engine is familiar. Connor McDavid has 49 points and a season-opening point streak that reached 20 games. Leon Draisaitl has 18 goals. Edmonton finishes like this over any stretch partly through luck, and 20 games is a small sample. Toronto's goaltending is the wrong opponent for testing whether that luck runs out. Zach Hyman's return off injured reserve adds another finisher, and he scored twice Wednesday on a reworked second line with Colton Dach and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
Special teams cut both ways
Edmonton's power play (goals per opportunity) clicks at 33.3%. It runs into a Toronto penalty kill that has been one of the club's few strengths, killing 85.5% of chances. That kill may be the only thing keeping this from getting away from the Leafs.
The opening runs the other way, too. Edmonton kills just 76.9% of penalties, 19th in the league. Toronto's power play converts at 27.1%. The Leafs' issue is getting there: they draw fewer power plays than all but five teams. Morgan Rielly, day-to-day with a lower-body injury as of Friday, would matter on that unit. Toronto hasn't confirmed his status.
Slow starts and an old coach
Toronto has not led after a single first period during its losing streak. Edmonton allows 0.45 first-period goals per game, the fewest in the league. If the Leafs fall behind early again, the building's mood will turn quickly.
There is a counterweight. Toronto won 7-2 in Edmonton on Oct. 24, the most recent meeting. Mike Babcock, who once coached the Leafs, faces his old team for the first time from the Edmonton bench. The Oilers also haven't lost in regulation on the road all season. Toronto is short Colton Sissons, Kirill Marchenko and Max Domi, all on injured reserve.
What the market says
Edmonton is a -150 favorite, with Toronto at +125. The total sits at 6.5. Neither the total nor the puck line has moved since our feed first saw the game. Edmonton has covered the puck line in 13 of 20 games. Toronto's games have gone over the total 12 times in 21.
Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs line movement and odds
| Book | Oilers ML | Leafs ML | Oilers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -150 | +118 | -1.5 (+150) | o6.5 (-140) |
| DraftKings | -142 | +120 | -1.5 (+164) | o6.5 (-125) |
| ESPN BET | -145 | +125 | -1.5 (+165) | o6.5 (-120) |
| Fanatics | -150 | +115 | -1.5 (+150) | o6.5 (-130) |
| FanDuel | -146 | +122 | -1.5 (+158) | o6.5 (-124) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -150 | +120 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -165 | +130 | -1.5 (+150) | o6.5 (-127) |
Where the money is on Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs
On the Kalshi moneyline: Edmonton Oilers: 81% of bets, 89% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs: 19% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Edmonton Oilers -1.5: 90% of bets, 97% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5: 10% of bets, 3% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 81% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 6.5: 19% of bets, 21% of the money.
Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs stats (this season)
| Stat | Edmonton Oilers | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-3-3 | 8-11-2 |
| Goals per game | 4.00 (3rd of 32) | 3.29 (13th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 2.80 (8th of 32) | 3.52 (26th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 1.20 (3rd of 32) | -0.24 (20th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 25.6 (27th of 32) | 28.0 (12th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 26.7 (11th of 32) | 29.3 (26th of 32) |
| Shot share | 48.9% (19th of 32) | 48.8% (22nd of 32) |
| Shooting % | 15.7% (1st of 32) | 11.7% (13th of 32) |
| Team save % | 89.5% (9th of 32) | 88.0% (23rd of 32) |
| Power play % | 33.3% (3rd of 32) | 27.1% (6th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 76.9% (19th of 32) | 85.5% (8th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 49.4% (17th of 32) | 52.1% (9th of 32) |
Key players
- Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers): He has 49 points in 20 games this season and has recorded a point in every one.
- Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers): His 18 goals this season have come on 78 shots, a 23.1% shooting rate.
- Evan Bouchard (Edmonton Oilers): He has 33 points this season and scored the overtime winner against Philadelphia on Wednesday.
- Devon Levi (Edmonton Oilers): The probable starter has a .898 save percentage over 9 games this season.
- Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs): He leads Toronto with 29 points and 12 goals this season.
- William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs): He has 22 points this season but carries a -8 rating and drew public criticism from Hiller this week.
- Sergei Bobrovsky (Toronto Maple Leafs): The listed probable starter has a .881 save percentage and a 3.47 goals-against average this season.
- Anthony Stolarz (Toronto Maple Leafs): He has posted a .900 save percentage over 8 games this season and remains in the mix to start.
Numbers that matter
| Oilers shooting % | 15.7% | Edmonton's shooting percentage ranks 1st in the league, which offsets its low shot volume. |
|---|---|---|
| Leafs team save % | 88.0% | Toronto ranks 24th in team save percentage, the weakness Edmonton is best built to exploit. |
| Oilers first-period goals allowed | 0.45 | That is the fewest first-period goals allowed per game in the league, facing a Toronto team that hasn't led after any first period during its skid. |
| Oilers penalty kill | 76.9% | This 19th-ranked kill gives Toronto's 27.1% power play its best path back into the game. |
| Oilers moneyline | -150 | Edmonton is favored on the road, where it has yet to lose in regulation this season. |
Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs: quick answers
What was the final score of Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
Edmonton Oilers 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 0 (final). Toronto Maple Leafs covered the closing puck line (Edmonton Oilers -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
What is the over/under for Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs played?
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto.
Has the line moved for Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
No: Edmonton Oilers has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Edmonton Oilers: 81% of bets, 89% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs: 19% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Edmonton Oilers -1.5: 90% of bets, 97% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5: 10% of bets, 3% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 81% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 6.5: 19% of bets, 21% of the money.