New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks prediction: Ducks' league-best power play tests the penalty-prone Islanders and Sorokin
Anaheim scores with the extra man at the best rate in hockey, New York goes to the box too often, and the Islanders' goaltending edge may decide which side bends first.
| Line | New York Islanders -110 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Expect Anaheim's finishing and power play to press New York, with the Islanders leaning on a stronger penalty kill and steadier goaltending to keep it tight.
- The Ducks' power play, at 36.8% and 1st in the NHL, against an Islanders team that goes shorthanded 3.5 times per game.
- New York is a slim -110 moneyline favorite on the road, with Anaheim at +1.5 on the puck line and the total at 6.5, a number that has held since it was first posted; the Ducks are just 3-5-1 at home.
Anaheim's power play, New York's penalties
This game will be won or lost in the penalty box. Anaheim's power play converts 36.8% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), the best rate in the league, and it is the main reason a team with ordinary even-strength numbers scores so freely.
That is a problem for an Islanders team that hands out chances. New York goes shorthanded 3.5 times per game, 27th of 32. The saving grace is the kill. The Islanders' penalty kill, the share of opponent power plays they survive without allowing a goal, sits at 85.7%, 6th in the league. One of those strengths will lose its edge tonight.
The matchup at the other end tilts less. The Ducks are shorthanded more often than any team in the NHL, but New York has rarely made opponents pay. The Islanders' power play runs at 16.4%, 28th in the league.
A wide gap in goal
The biggest structural difference between these teams is behind the defense. New York's team save percentage of 90.0% ranks 4th; Anaheim's 86.3% ranks 31st.
Ilya Sorokin is the probable starter for the Islanders, coming off Thursday's win in Los Angeles. His .915 save percentage this season has kept a team that gets outshot in most games competitive.
Anaheim's crease is unsettled. Lukas Dostal is listed as the probable starter, but Laurent Brossoit started the Nov 11 loss to Nashville, his second straight start, and the team has not confirmed either goalie. Dostal's .866 save percentage this season offers little reassurance if he gets the nod.
Few shots, sharp finishing
Neither team controls the puck for long stretches, so finishing has carried the scoring. Anaheim converts 14.9% of its shots, 2nd in the league, despite generating among the fewest shots of any team. Some of that is a small-sample heater, and shooting percentage in November is the stat most likely to cool.
Cutter Gauthier is the sharpest edge of it, with 16 goals in 18 games. Leo Carlsson runs the playmaking and Jackson LaCombe drives the back end. New York answers with rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer, who logs heavy minutes, and Bo Horvat, who sealed Thursday's win with an empty-netter. That 5-2 victory in Los Angeles snapped a four-game losing streak.
Bodies in and out
The Islanders are thin down the middle. Jean-Gabriel Pageau left Thursday's morning skate with a lower-body injury, missed the game in Los Angeles and is listed as day-to-day. Mathew Barzal (knee) also sat out Thursday; he has been upgraded to day-to-day, but reports conflict and his status for Saturday is unknown. Ryan Pulock and Matias Maccelli both returned Thursday, while Alexander Romanov (knee surgery) and Calum Ritchie remain on injured reserve.
Anaheim placed Ryan Poehling on long-term injured reserve Wednesday, and A.J. Greer has been on injured reserve since Nov 2. The Ducks said Wednesday that Ian Moore could return by the end of the week, though another report described him as still sidelined. Troy Terry (hip) is nearing a return, but nothing confirms him for tonight. No game-day updates surfaced for either club.
Where the market sits
Books see this as nearly even, but the market has tilted toward the visitors. New York is -110 on the moneyline and Anaheim is -108, with the Islanders at -1.5 on the puck line and the Ducks at +1.5. The spread has moved from Anaheim -1.5 to Anaheim +1.5, while the total at 6.5 has not moved since the line first appeared.
The home edge is thin in practice. The Ducks are 3-5-1 at Honda Center against a much better road mark. A high total fits a team that scores and allows goals at near-equal rates, but it also asks Sorokin to have an off night.
New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks line movement and odds
| Book | Islanders ML | Ducks ML | Islanders spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-275) | o6.5 (-155) |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 | -1.5 (+235) | o6.5 (-135) |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-250) | o6.5 (-155) |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+210) | o6.5 (-140) |
| FanDuel | -106 | -113 | +1.5 (-265) | o6.5 (-142) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -120 | +1.5 (-250) | o6.5 (-145) |
| Caesars | -110 | -108 | +1.5 (-245) | o7 (+111) |
Where the money is on New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks
On the Kalshi moneyline: New York Islanders: 27% of bets, 33% of the money; Anaheim Ducks: 73% of bets, 67% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Islanders -1.5: 44% of bets, 68% of the money; Anaheim Ducks +1.5: 56% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 85% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 6.5: 15% of bets, 8% of the money.
New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks stats (this season)
| Stat | New York Islanders | Anaheim Ducks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-6-4 | 10-8-1 |
| Goals per game | 2.94 (21st of 32) | 3.74 (5th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 2.89 (10th of 32) | 3.68 (30th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.06 (15th of 32) | 0.05 (16th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 25.6 (26th of 32) | 25.1 (28th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 28.9 (24th of 32) | 26.9 (14th of 32) |
| Shot share | 46.9% (27th of 32) | 48.2% (24th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 11.5% (14th of 32) | 14.9% (2nd of 32) |
| Team save % | 90.0% (4th of 32) | 86.3% (31st of 32) |
| Power play % | 16.4% (28th of 32) | 36.8% (1st of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 85.7% (7th of 32) | 74.0% (23rd of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 56.0% (2nd of 32) | 46.6% (28th of 32) |
Key players
- Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders): Owns a .915 save percentage and 2.53 goals-against average in 13 games this season.
- Matthew Schaefer (New York Islanders): Leads the Islanders' blue line with 18 points while playing 27.0 minutes per game this season.
- Bo Horvat (New York Islanders): Has 8 goals on 58 shots this season and closed out Thursday's win with an empty-net goal.
- Cutter Gauthier (Anaheim Ducks): Leads the Ducks with 16 goals on 79 shots in 18 games this season.
- Leo Carlsson (Anaheim Ducks): Tops the team with 26 points, including 20 assists, this season.
- Lukas Dostal (Anaheim Ducks): Carries an .866 save percentage and 3.76 goals-against average in 10 games this season.
Numbers that matter
| Ducks power play | 36.8% | The best conversion rate in the NHL, and the Ducks' clearest edge in this game. |
|---|---|---|
| Islanders times shorthanded | 3.5 | Per game, 27th of 32, which hands Anaheim's top unit plenty of chances. |
| Islanders penalty kill | 85.7% | Ranks 6th and is New York's best defense against Anaheim's power play. |
| Ducks team save % | 86.3% | 31st of 32, against New York's 90.0%, which ranks 4th. |
| Ducks moneyline | -115 | A slim favorite price that has not moved since the line first appeared. |
New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks: quick answers
What is the over/under for New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET.
Where is New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks played?
Honda Center, Anaheim.
Has the line moved for New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks?
No: New York Islanders has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: New York Islanders: 27% of bets, 33% of the money; Anaheim Ducks: 73% of bets, 67% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Islanders -1.5: 44% of bets, 68% of the money; Anaheim Ducks +1.5: 56% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 85% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 6.5: 15% of bets, 8% of the money.