Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction: Ersson or Ullmark? Ottawa's crease call shapes Saturday in Pittsburgh
Both teams carry a goalie question into Pittsburgh, and the answers could matter more than the standings gap between a 12-6-2 Ottawa and a 7-10-2 Pittsburgh.
Ottawa Senators covered the closing puck line (Ottawa Senators -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
| Line | Ottawa Senators -135 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Ottawa is the steadier team, but Pittsburgh's home ice and Ottawa's habit of taking penalties keep this closer than the records suggest.
- The goalies: Samuel Ersson is Ottawa's listed probable starter, while Pittsburgh's crease is split between Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov.
- Ottawa is a -130 favorite with a 6.5 total, unchanged since first seen; Ottawa's games have gone under 12 times in 20.
Two creases, two questions
Linus Ullmark is back. Ottawa's top goaltender returned from a lower-body injury and started Thursday's 4-3 overtime win over Colorado. His numbers explain why that matters: a .938 save percentage and a 1.52 goals-against average through nine games.
He is not the listed probable starter tonight. Samuel Ersson is, coming in at .884 after sharing the net during Ullmark's absence. Ottawa has confirmed nothing, so this is the first thing to check before puck drop.
Pittsburgh's picture is murkier. Arturs Silovs is the listed probable starter, but Sergei Murashov started Wednesday in San Jose and a line projection has him in the net again. Murashov's .891 edges Silovs' .873, and neither has steadied a team save percentage that ranks 26th of 32. The Penguins haven't named a starter.
Ottawa's penalty problem
Ottawa draws power plays at the second-highest rate in the league, 3.85 a game. It does almost nothing with them. Its power play, which measures goals per opportunity, converts 11.7%, 31st of 32.
The Senators also hand the puck back. They are shorthanded 3.65 times a game, 29th in the league, and their penalty kill stops 75.3% of chances. Pittsburgh's power play sits at 21.1%, middle of the pack but a clear step up from Ottawa's.
The Penguins are disciplined, shorthanded just 2.74 times a game, 6th-fewest. If the whistles follow form, Pittsburgh gets the better end of the special-teams exchange even while killing fewer penalties than Ottawa draws.
Stutzle leads, Malkin lingers
Tim Stutzle drives Ottawa with 24 points in 20 games. Shane Pinto arrives fresh off a two-goal, three-point night against Colorado that he capped with the overtime winner on his 26th birthday. Ottawa is thin up front, though: Nick Cousins is out until at least Nov. 19, and Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele and William Eklund are all on injured reserve.
For Pittsburgh, Erik Karlsson runs the offense from the blue line with 16 assists. Evgeni Malkin has 17 points in 17 games, but the last dated report, from Nov. 4, listed him as day-to-day with a lower-body issue. A later undated item says he returned to practice, so his status tonight is unconfirmed. Bryan Rust remains on injured reserve and is not expected back until early December.
Starts, rest and the price
Both teams come in rested, with no back-to-back on either side. The first period could set the tone. Ottawa allows just 0.6 first-period goals a game, 3rd in the league, while Pittsburgh gives up 1.21, 28th.
The market makes Ottawa a -130 favorite, with Pittsburgh at +110 and +1.5 on the puck line. The total sits at 6.5, where it opened in our feed. The two teams pull that total in opposite directions: Ottawa's games are 8-12 to the over, Pittsburgh's 12-7. The goalie announcements are the most likely thing to move it.
Ottawa won the first two meetings last season before Pittsburgh took the March game 4-3 in Ottawa. The night also carries some ceremony in Pittsburgh, where Marc-Andre Fleury, Larry Murphy, Jim Rutherford and the late Jack McGregor are being inducted into the team's Hall of Fame before the game.
Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins line movement and odds
| Book | Senators ML | Penguins ML | Senators spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +105 | -1.5 (+170) | o6.5 (+100) |
| DraftKings | -135 | +114 | -1.5 (+185) | o6.5 (+105) |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Fanatics | -140 | +115 | -1.5 (+180) | o6.5 (+105) |
| FanDuel | -134 | +112 | -1.5 (+172) | o6.5 (+100) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -135 | +105 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Caesars | -137 | +110 | -1.5 (+181) | o6.5 (+101) |
Where the money is on Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ottawa Senators: 68% of bets, 90% of the money; Pittsburgh Penguins: 32% of bets, 10% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Ottawa Senators -1.5: 72% of bets, 96% of the money; Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5: 28% of bets, 4% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 32% of bets, 6% of the money; Under 6.5: 68% of bets, 94% of the money.
Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins stats (this season)
| Stat | Ottawa Senators | Pittsburgh Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-6-2 | 7-10-2 |
| Goals per game | 3.10 (17th of 32) | 3.11 (16th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.00 (13th of 32) | 3.47 (24th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.10 (14th of 32) | -0.37 (22nd of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 25.6 (25th of 32) | 27.7 (15th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 26.9 (13th of 32) | 27.7 (17th of 32) |
| Shot share | 48.9% (20th of 32) | 50.0% (13th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 12.1% (11th of 32) | 11.2% (19th of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.8% (11th of 32) | 87.5% (26th of 32) |
| Power play % | 11.7% (31st of 32) | 21.1% (16th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 75.3% (21st of 32) | 78.8% (13th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 54.0% (5th of 32) | 46.4% (30th of 32) |
Key players
- Linus Ullmark (Ottawa Senators): Back from injury with a .938 save percentage this season, though Ersson is the listed probable starter tonight.
- Samuel Ersson (Ottawa Senators): Has a .884 save percentage and 3.11 goals-against average in 10 games this season.
- Tim Stutzle (Ottawa Senators): Leads Ottawa with 24 points, including 10 goals, in 20 games this season.
- Shane Pinto (Ottawa Senators): Has 9 goals this season and scored the overtime winner against Colorado on Thursday.
- Arturs Silovs (Pittsburgh Penguins): Listed as probable despite a .873 save percentage over 12 games this season.
- Sergei Murashov (Pittsburgh Penguins): Started Wednesday in San Jose and carries a .891 save percentage in seven games this season.
- Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins): Leads Pittsburgh with 19 points, 16 of them assists, this season.
- Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins): Has 17 points in 17 games this season, but his status tonight is unconfirmed.
Numbers that matter
| Ottawa power play | 11.7% | 31st of 32 despite drawing the second-most power plays in the league. |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa times shorthanded | 3.65 | Per game, 29th of 32, which gives Pittsburgh's 21.1% power play plenty of looks. |
| Pittsburgh team save % | 87.5 | 26th of 32, whichever goalie gets the net. |
| Ottawa first-period goals allowed | 0.6 | Per game, 3rd in the league, against a Pittsburgh team that allows 1.21, 28th. |
| Ottawa moneyline | -130 | The road favorite, with a 6.5 total unchanged since our feed first saw the game. |
Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins: quick answers
What was the final score of Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
Ottawa Senators 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1 (final). Ottawa Senators covered the closing puck line (Ottawa Senators -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
What is the over/under for Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins played?
PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh.
Has the line moved for Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
No: Ottawa Senators has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ottawa Senators: 68% of bets, 90% of the money; Pittsburgh Penguins: 32% of bets, 10% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Ottawa Senators -1.5: 72% of bets, 96% of the money; Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5: 28% of bets, 4% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 32% of bets, 6% of the money; Under 6.5: 68% of bets, 94% of the money.