Louisville Cardinals vs Syracuse Orange prediction: Syracuse hunts for a quarterback as Louisville's backs keep breaking loose

Who takes the snap

Syracuse comes home after a 35-day road trip with an 0-3 ACC record and no named starter. Louisville arrives averaging 7.79 yards per play, 4th of 138, with a backfield that keeps hitting the home run.

Fran Brown spent Monday refusing to name a quarterback. "We're working through stuff with all three of the quarterbacks," he said, and each comes with a medical caveat. Amari Odom, who started at UConn, hurt his right shoulder, had an MRI and missed Virginia; Brown said "something might be torn." Steve Angeli sat out Virginia after a PRP injection for the Achilles he tore a year ago. Brown first said Angeli would be out "another week or so," then listed him among the three who might play Saturday. Malachi Nelson built a 10-point lead in Charlottesville before leaving in the fourth quarter with a collarbone or shoulder injury. His X-rays were negative, and Brown expects him to practice.

Behind them sits Danny Lauter, a fourth-stringer and Georgetown transfer who scored a touchdown in the final five minutes at Virginia, then couldn't move the chains on the last drive.

Angeli is the only one of the three in our data, and it isn't pretty. He completed 55.3% of his passes. He threw five interceptions against four touchdowns before losing the job.

Whoever plays gets a real opening. Louisville ranks 118th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap helps the offense). It gives up 257.2 passing yards per game. Umari Hatcher has 336 receiving yards and four touchdowns over his last three games. That run includes 12 catches for 152 yards at UConn.

Isaac Brown's second-level damage

Louisville runs for 231.7 yards per game, 11th nationally, and Isaac Brown is why that number keeps climbing. He has 393 yards on 35 carries over his last three games. Against Florida State, with the Cardinals down 14-0, he broke a 97-yard touchdown, the longest play from scrimmage in program history.

Keyjuan Brown, at 9.7 yards per carry, missed that game. Jeff Brohm said he won't know his status until later in the week.

Here is the wrinkle. Louisville's line doesn't win the first few yards: it ranks 89th in line yards per carry, a measure of push up front. The damage comes once backs reach open grass, which is why the offense ranks 10th in explosiveness. Syracuse's front is built to win first contact. Its 22.8% stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line) ranks 27th. Yet the Orange sit 92nd in rushing EPA allowed. They stop plenty of runs and pay heavily for the ones that escape.

The matchup flips on the other side. Tylik Hill averages 5.9 yards per carry, and Louisville's 11.6% stuff rate ranks 135th. Leaning on Hill is the most obvious way to protect a banged-up or inexperienced quarterback.

Kienholz and a new voice

Lincoln Kienholz has been efficient and careful, averaging 10.0 yards per attempt with one interception all season. He finishes drives too, with eight rushing touchdowns, two of them in the third quarter against Florida State.

This is where Syracuse can push back. The Orange rank 7th in passing EPA allowed and give up 168.2 passing yards per game. Keyshawn Johnson has four sacks in four games. One caution: Syracuse's FBS opponents carry an average SP+ of 3.8. Louisville's have averaged 8.7, so the Orange's pass-defense numbers came against a softer slate.

The other variable is the headset. Against Florida State, Brohm gave primary play-calling to offensive coordinator Brian Brohm and the offensive staff, the first time in his 14-year career he hasn't called it himself. "He was very sharp on Friday night along with the offensive staff," Brohm said. He hasn't decided who calls plays at Syracuse.

The margins lean Louisville

Syracuse's games have mostly been close, and its details are a mess. The Orange have made 6 of 13 field goals, a 46.2% rate that ranks 129th nationally. They rank 136th in extra-point percentage. They are dead last in penalty yards at 100.0 per game.

Louisville isn't clean either, ranking 126th in penalty yards. But it turns the ball over just 0.67 times a game, 23rd nationally. Syracuse ranks 84th.

Both teams carry close-game scars. Syracuse lost 18-21 at home to California and 25-28 at Virginia, where it covered as a 14-point underdog. The Cardinals are still 4-2 against the spread.

Brohm isn't taking the trip lightly. "Going to Syracuse has always been difficult to play," he said. If the Orange keep the game close, their kicking could decide it in a way they won't like.