Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction: San Diego State's quarterback scramble collides with Fresno State's big-play passing

Everything on the table

Sean Lewis called himself "embarrassed" after Oregon State hung 66 points on his team, the Aztecs' largest margin of defeat since 2008. He apologized to fans and said the loss was "100% on me." Then he promised that "everything's going to be on the table," and the first item on it is the quarterback.

Jayden Denegal was benched in the second half of that game for redshirt freshman Draiden Trudeau. Lewis has hinted at a change and said "Denny's battling through some things" without saying what those things are. Trudeau has completed 8 of 14 passes in limited work, with one touchdown and one interception. San Diego State hasn't named a starter.

The problem is bigger than one player. The Aztecs rank 136th in EPA per play, which measures expected points added on each snap. They are also 136th in success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule. Third downs have been a dead end: they convert 26.9% of them, 133rd in FBS. Whoever takes the first snap inherits an offense that has gone backwards for a month.

Mandal finds a soft target

Fresno State's offense is lopsided in a useful way. It ranks 31st in passing EPA and 17th in explosiveness, a measure of how much value its successful plays produce. That has papered over a success rate that sits 109th.

Jayden Mandal has protected the ball all year, with 8 touchdown passes against 1 interception. Ezekiel Avit is the hot hand after scoring twice against Boise State, and Josiah Freeman leads the room with 375 receiving yards.

San Diego State gives up 299.2 passing yards per game, dead last among 138 FBS teams. There is one wrinkle: the Aztecs rank 15th in explosiveness allowed, so opponents beat them by stacking completions rather than hitting home runs. That suits Fresno, whose success rate over its last three games rose to 44.4%.

Two run games looking for room

Neither ground game has earned much trust. Fresno State averages 2.58 line yards per carry, a measure of how much push the blockers create, and that ranks 131st. Bryson Donelson has averaged 2.6 yards a carry over his last three games. Rayshon Luke has been the exception, averaging 8.5 over the same stretch.

This is the week that could change. San Diego State's stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 11.9%, 133rd in the country. Its havoc rate ranks 128th, so the Aztecs rarely blow up plays in the backfield.

San Diego State's own run game ranks 127th in rushing EPA. Javion Kinnard is back from injury, and Lewis is "hopeful" Lucky Sutton can contribute. True freshman Josiah Lucas showed what is possible when he ran for 111 yards against Texas State.

Fresno State owns the margins

The Bulldogs win the quiet parts of the game. Opponents start their drives at the 22.6-yard line on average, the best mark in FBS. Fresno's own drives begin 8th-best nationally. It commits 0.5 turnovers per game, 11th in FBS, and sits 5th in fewest penalty yards.

San Diego State gives the ball away 1.5 times per game, 92nd. The Aztecs do have one weapon in kick returns, where they rank 5th. On a night when points may be scarce on one side, a single return could matter.

Read the records carefully

Fresno State is 5-1 against the spread, but its wins came against San Jose State, Rice and Washington State, all ranked 112th or worse in SP+. The average SP+ rating of its FBS opponents is -6.3, against 5.9 for San Diego State's slate. The Bulldogs' closest test was a cover as a 9.5-point underdog in a 31-38 loss to Boise State, the only top-50 SP+ opponent they have faced.

San Diego State has allowed 45.3 points per game over its last three.

The rivalry still bites in the other direction: San Diego State won the last meeting 23-0 at Fresno. Both programs are 1-1 in their first Pac-12 season, and no line has been posted yet.

What to watch

• Who lines up at quarterback for San Diego State on the opening drive.
• Whether Luke gets more carries against a front that rarely stuffs runs.
• Fresno's field position edge against the Aztecs' kick returners.