Utah Utes vs Colorado Buffaloes prediction: Wayshawn Parker's hot streak runs into Colorado's best weapon

Strength against strength

Utah comes to Boulder unbeaten and running the ball as well as almost anyone in the country. Colorado comes off a bye with a quarterback job up for grabs and three straight losses. The one place the Buffaloes can claim to match the Utes is at the line of scrimmage, and that is where this late-night game turns.

Utah runs for 238.2 yards per game, 8th in FBS. Its rushing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 5th. Wayshawn Parker is the engine, with 375 yards over his last three games at 8.5 yards a carry. He ran for 171 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Kansas.

Colorado's defense is built to stop exactly that. Its stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 31.2%, 2nd in the country. It allows 2.4 line yards per carry, a measure of how much push blockers get, which ranks 14th. The Buffaloes average 8.8 tackles for loss per game, 4th nationally, and Santana Hopper has 9 of them himself.

Utah's own line yards rank 22nd: good, not overwhelming. Help may be coming. Lineman Isaiah Garcia missed the last two games, and Scalley said "He's back practicing this week." If Colorado wins early downs, it forces Utah into the third-and-long spots it rarely sees.

Who throws for Colorado

Colorado's offense is the bigger problem, and nobody has publicly settled who runs it. Julian Lewis was benched after a 2-2 start, and Isaac Wilson started against Texas Tech. Lewis, Wilson and freshman Kaneal Sweetwyne are all in the mix, and Colorado hasn't named a starter for Utah. New offensive coordinator Brennan Marion has had the bye week to sort it out.

The numbers explain the urgency. Colorado scored 9.0 points per game across its last three. It turns the ball over 2.2 times per game, 136th of 138. When it does reach scoring range, it manages 2.07 points per trip, 134th.

The Buffaloes' one reliable outlet is Joseph Williams, with 26 catches for 308 yards over the last three games. That points at Utah's lone defensive soft spot. The Utes rank 121st in explosiveness allowed, so the plays that beat them tend to go a long way. The catch: they allow a success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, of just 33.0%, 8th nationally. Colorado needs a few big strikes because it won't string together long drives.

Records built on different schedules

These records need context. Utah's FBS opponents average an SP+ of -0.8, and its best win came over Kansas, 50th in SP+. Colorado's opponents average 12.8, and its three losses came against Northwestern, Baylor and Texas Tech, all inside the SP+ top 30.

That doesn't erase the gap. Utah ranks 7th in SP+, Colorado 84th. But Colorado has had 14 days to prepare, and Utah's quarterback gave the ball away twice in the first half against Kansas, on a strip-sack and an interception. Colorado's havoc rate, the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or breakup, is 20.7%, 13th nationally. Devon Dampier has otherwise been sharp, with 12 touchdowns against 2 interceptions.

Hidden yards favour Utah

Colorado gives away field position in every phase. Its kicker has made 3 of 7 field goals. Opponents start drives at their own 32.6, 134th, and kick returns against the Buffaloes average 33.1 yards, 134th of 137. Colorado also draws 82.6 penalty yards per game, 133rd.

Utah, by contrast, starts its average drive at the 32.3, 15th. Against a Colorado offense that struggles to finish, every short field for the Utes matters more. Utah has covered all five of its games this season; Colorado has covered one.

What to watch

• Utah's first-down runs. If Parker keeps getting chunks against the nation's No. 2 stuff rate, this gets away from Colorado early.
• Colorado's quarterback. Whoever starts has to protect the ball; the Buffaloes are 136th in turnovers.
• Williams deep. Utah's 121st-ranked explosiveness allowed is the opening Colorado has to hit.
• History. Utah won 53-7 last year, but Colorado won 49-24 the last time these teams played in Boulder.