Navy Midshipmen vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction: Navy's option runs straight at UTSA's soft run defense

The option against a soft front

Navy does one thing, and does it about as well as anyone. The Midshipmen run for 299.4 yards per game, third in FBS. Their blockers are the engine: Navy averages 3.74 line yards per carry (a measure of the rushing yards credited to the offensive line), and that ranks 2nd nationally.

UTSA's run defense has struggled. The Roadrunners allow 184.2 rushing yards per game, 119th of 138. They rank 90th in line yards allowed, so opposing blockers are pushing them backward at the point of attack.

The front also fails to blow up plays. UTSA's stuff rate (the share of runs stopped at or behind the line) is 17.1%, which ranks 95th. Its havoc rate (the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup) ranks 119th. An option offense struggles when a defense creates negative plays, and UTSA rarely does.

Navy barely needs the pass. It throws for 102.0 yards per game, 134th in FBS, and has little reason to change that formula here.

Gutierrez's legs, Woodson's ankle

Jackson Gutierrez started against Tulsa in place of Braxton Woodson, who has been slowed by an ankle injury, and the results were big. Gutierrez ran for a career-high 232 yards and three touchdowns in the 34-26 win, including a 3-yard score with 1:10 left.

No update has come out on Woodson's status for this week, and it is possible the two split snaps. Gutierrez has 505 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns this season. The trade-off shows up when he throws: he completes 46.8% of his passes.

The backfield behind him is unsettled. Running backs Walker and Chalmers and tight end Barlow are listed as questionable with undisclosed injuries, and tight end Jake Norris, who missed Tulsa, is also questionable. Walker is reportedly expected back after missing four weeks, though he is still listed as questionable. Michael Barrow has carried the steadiest load in the meantime at 6.4 yards per carry. UTSA has no injuries listed.

McCown's clean drives

When UTSA has the ball, the question is whether it can keep pace without giving Navy extra possessions. Owen McCown has been efficient, completing 68.7% of his passes, and he says he feels back to full strength after nagging injuries last season.

UTSA rarely gives the ball away. It averages 0.5 turnovers per game, 11th in FBS. Navy struggles to take it away, averaging 0.6 takeaways per game, which ranks 127th. Without turnovers, Navy's defense has to get stops, and that has been its weak spot. Opponents convert 46.4% of third downs against the Midshipmen, 126th nationally.

That suits UTSA's backfield. A'Marion Peterson has 7 rushing touchdowns and ran for 92 yards on 12 carries in the USF win. Sustained drives that end in his short-yardage scores would keep Navy's offense on the sideline.

Hidden yards cut both ways

Navy has the shakier kicking game. The Midshipmen have made 3 of 5 field goals, so drives that stall may not produce points.

UTSA hurts itself with flags. The Roadrunners give up 87.8 penalty yards per game, 136th of 138, while Navy is one of the most disciplined teams in the country at 13th. Against an offense that wants to stay ahead of the chains, a UTSA penalty on third down can extend a long Navy drive.

Two records, two résumés

UTSA sits at 5-1 and 2-0 in the conference, entering with nine days of rest after the USF win. That game also started a feud over crowd noise. USF coach Brian Hartline questioned how loud the Alamodome gets, and UTSA replied that "We have never needed to pump in artificial crowd noise." Expect the building to try to answer him at 8:00 PM ET.

Navy's 2-3 record looks worse up close. It lost at UAB, a team 116th in SP+, and is 1-4 against the spread. The Midshipmen still have the most efficient ground game UTSA will see all year. Both programs were expected to contend for the American title, and the loser falls well behind in that race.