San Jose State Spartans vs UTEP Miners prediction: San José State's pass rush circles a UTEP offense in quarterback limbo
With EJ Colson's concussion status unresolved and UTEP's line giving up sacks at a near-FBS-worst rate, the Spartans' best unit lines up against the Miners' weakest link.
| Spread | San José State -7 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 45.5 |
- A low-scoring grind: SJSU's stalled offense should still find enough against the FBS's second-worst pass defence by EPA, while UTEP struggles to move.
- SJSU's pass rush against UTEP's protection, likely with run-first backup Raymond Moore III at quarterback if Colson isn't cleared.
- Our model doesn't price this game yet.
Who plays quarterback for UTEP
UTEP has lost four straight, and the next one may turn on a question nobody has answered. EJ Colson suffered a concussion in the 61-7 loss at New Mexico and sat out the Nevada game. No clearance or practice report has surfaced this week, though one injury listing still carries him as questionable.
If he can't go, Raymond Moore III starts again at home. Moore is a run-first quarterback who did limited damage with his legs against Nevada and struggled throwing for most of the night. He carried 15 times for 65 yards in that game.
That is a bad setup against this San José State front. The Spartans average 2.67 sacks per game, 24th in FBS. UTEP allows 3.83 per game, 137th of 138. Jeremiah Tuiileila had two sacks at Hawai'i, and Ethan Powell has a sack in each of the last two games.
The catch for SJSU: its run defence is soft. The Spartans' line yards allowed rank 110th and their rushing EPA allowed ranks 98th. A quarterback who keeps the ball could find room on designed runs. A quarterback who keeps the ball could find room on designed runs.
Weaver against a broken secondary
UTEP allows 0.476 passing EPA per play (expected points added on each dropback), 137th in FBS. That is the opening Luke Weaver needs. He has thrown for 1,529 yards with 11 touchdowns this season.
His recent form is the worry. Weaver has five interceptions over his last three games, four of them in the loss to Fresno State. UTEP's defence does take the ball away at a respectable clip, ranking 51st in takeaways per game.
Carson Clark is the target to trust. He leads the team with 37 catches for 405 yards and caught eight for 91 against Wyoming. Cooper Hoch, the second option with 338 yards, left the Wyoming game in the third quarter with a leg injury, and his status for Saturday is unknown.
Nobody finishes drives
For all the matchup edges, San José State has not scored much lately. The Spartans have averaged 14.3 points over their last three games, against a schedule that included Hawai'i (117th in SP+) and Wyoming (123rd). They rank 106th in points per scoring opportunity and 114th on third down.
UTEP is worse in both places. Their kicker has made 2 of 5 field goals.
The hidden yards cut both ways. SJSU ranks 122nd in net punting and 127th in punt returns allowed, and UTEP is 128th in the same return-coverage stat. A short field from a botched punt could decide a game this low on offence.
What the records hide
UTEP's 1-5 record came against real opponents. The average SP+ of the Miners' FBS opponents is 8.1, against -4.0 for San José State, and the list includes Michigan and New Mexico. Even so, the last three games produced an average score of 41.3-9.0, and UTEP is 1-5 against the spread. Commentary around the program has already started questioning Scotty Walden's future.
San José State's 3-3 is thinner than it looks. Their run game ranks 114th in rushing EPA, and Jabari Bates has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over the last three games.
This is the week that could change. UTEP allows 186.8 rushing yards per game, 120th, and Nevada's Herschel Turner ran for a career-high 192 against the Miners last week.
What to watch
- Colson's status: a cleared starter changes UTEP's passing floor more than any other variable.
- Early sacks: if SJSU's rush wins on first and second down, UTEP's last-ranked third-down offence has little chance to recover.
- Weaver's turnovers: clean ball security likely decides whether SJSU pulls away or keeps UTEP within reach.
- Bates' workload: a productive day on the ground would signal the Spartans can finally lean on the run.
Key players
- Luke Weaver (San José State): He has 1,529 passing yards this season but five interceptions in his last three games.
- Carson Clark (San José State): The leading receiver with 405 yards caught eight passes for 91 yards against Wyoming.
- Jabari Bates (San José State): His 3.8 yards per carry over the last three games trails his 4.6 season mark.
- Jeremiah Tuiileila (San José State): He leads the front with 5.5 tackles for loss, including a two-sack game at Hawai'i.
- EJ Colson (UTEP): The concussed starter has thrown seven touchdowns in five games, and his status is unconfirmed.
- Raymond Moore III (UTEP): The run-first backup ran 11 times for 134 yards at New Mexico before starting against Nevada.
- Jaden Smith (UTEP): He has 13 catches over the last three games, including a touchdown against Nevada.
- Sterling Miles (UTEP): He leads UTEP's defenders on this list with 2.5 sacks.
Numbers that matter
| UTEP sacks allowed per game | 3.83 | Ranks 137th of 138 heading into a game against a pass rush ranked 24th. |
|---|---|---|
| UTEP passing EPA allowed rank | 137th | The softest pass defence by EPA that Weaver has seen this season. |
| UTEP third-down conversion | 23.3% | Last in FBS, which leaves no escape route once the sacks start. |
| Weaver interceptions, last 3 games | 5 | Ball security is the main thing that could keep UTEP in the game. |
| UTEP rushing yards allowed per game | 186.8 | Ranks 120th, an opening for an SJSU run game that has sputtered. |
San Jose State Spartans vs UTEP Miners: quick answers
Who is favored in San Jose State Spartans vs UTEP Miners?
San José State is favored by 7 points (San José State -7).
What is the over/under for San Jose State Spartans vs UTEP Miners?
The total is 45.5 points.
When is San Jose State Spartans vs UTEP Miners?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.