Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Houston Cougars prediction: Drew Mestemaker's hot arm tests Houston's sagging pass defense

Mestemaker against a soft secondary

No. 18 Oklahoma State arrives on a four-game winning streak, having snapped an 18-game Big 12 losing streak in Eric Morris's first season. No. 20 Houston is a 3.5-point home favourite in the biggest Big 12 game of the week, with a title push on the line.

The Cowboys' best path runs through Drew Mestemaker. Over his last three games he has thrown for 1,017 yards and 10 touchdowns, at 13.2 yards per attempt with one interception. Murray State, an FCS team, inflates that run. He still threw for 389 yards at West Virginia.

Houston's pass defense is the soft spot. It allows 248.3 passing yards per game, 118th of 138. It ranks 94th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). It is 111th in explosiveness allowed, so the Cougars give up big gains when opponents complete passes.

Mestemaker should also have time. Oklahoma State allows 0.8 sacks per game, 12th nationally, and ranks 9th in havoc allowed (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or breakup). Houston's front creates havoc on 19.9% of snaps, 19th, so this is a real test. The one wrinkle is left tackle Braydon Nelson, a game-time decision for UCF with no update since.

Houston keeps the chains moving

Houston rarely breaks a long play. Its offense ranks 127th in explosiveness. It wins by staying ahead of the chains instead: a 54.7% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) ranks 2nd, and it converts 62.7% of third downs, best in the country.

The run game drives it. Houston's line produces 3.7 line yards per carry, 3rd nationally, a measure of the push up front. Oklahoma State's run defense is the weaker half of its unit: 149.0 rushing yards allowed per game ranks 81st, and its 18.0% stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, ranks 86th.

Conner Weigman adds a short-yardage threat with five rushing touchdowns over his last three games. Oklahoma State's counter is third down, where it allows 31.4%, 27th. If the Cowboys can force third-and-long, they can shorten Houston's drives. Weigman was ill for the UCF game but started and threw four touchdowns at Kansas State the following week.

Hidden yards favour Houston

Ball security is the clearest gap. Oklahoma State gives the ball away 1.8 times per game, 118th, while Houston's 0.67 ranks 23rd. Weigman has thrown one interception all season; Mestemaker has thrown five. The Cowboys scored a 28-yard fumble-return touchdown against UCF, but they can't count on extra possessions in this game.

Field position tilts the same way. Houston's average drive starts at its own 34.3, 5th nationally, and its opponents start at the 23.8, 4th. Oklahoma State's kick return average of 8.8 yards ranks dead last.

The Cowboys have one real edge here. Houston allows 4.83 points per scoring opportunity, 137th of 138, so drives that reach scoring range against this defense tend to end in touchdowns. Oklahoma State's kicker is 12/12 on field goals, so drives that stall still produce points.

The line and the résumé

The spread opened and sits at Houston -3.5, or Oklahoma State +3.5. The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread, including a 39-31 win over Oregon as 24-point underdogs. Houston is 3-3 against the spread, covering both of its recent games as an underdog and failing to cover both as a favourite.

The schedules aren't even. Houston's FBS opponents average an SP+ rating of 7.8, against 4.8 for Oklahoma State. The Cougars also beat Kansas State 35-16 on the road. Houston won last year's meeting 39-17 in Stillwater.

Off the field, speculation about athletic director Chad Weiberg's future has followed Oklahoma State this week. Morris said Weiberg "has been great" when asked about it.

• Third-and-long: if the Cowboys force them, Houston's offense has to make plays it isn't built for.
• Bowick and Wyatt Young downfield: chunk plays against a secondary that allows them.
• Turnovers: a clean game from Mestemaker changes the math.